The BJP-AIADMK parting ways in Tamil Nadu will have multiple implications for all the parties in the state and the national parties. The state unit of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has announced its decision to end its alliance with the state unit of the BJP-led NDA. The state unit of former chief minister J. Jayalalithaa’s party has been uncomfortable with the growth trajectory of the BJP in Tamil Nadu in the recent months.
It is true to some extent that the BJP in Tamil Nadu still has two huge impediments in its efforts to expand in one of the highly sensitive southern states. The party did not have a strong state apparatus, team, foot soldiers and other support systems like the cine-industry and business backing. The second and more perceptible aspect was the lack of intellectual support and acceptance for the counter-narrative to the Dravidian ideology, which enjoyed deep socio-political linkages with the Dravidian parties. However, the emergence of Annamalai as a popular leader is a shot in the arm for the party and blunts these impediments.
The Tamil Nadu flux
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is an off shoot of Dravida Kazhagam (DK) of E V Ramasamy Naicker who sowed the seeds of anti-Hindu, anti-Hindi agenda that grew into a massive secessionist movement. One of DK’s apex leaders C.N. Annadurai, popularly called Anna (the name that is part of AIADMK), disagreed with many of EVR’s suggestions, rather commands, like boycott of Independence Day, formation of “Black Shirt Brigade” and insisting that everyone in DK wear black shirt. He was also opposed to aged EVR marrying a woman half his age and promoting her as his successor. So seventy-four years back, on 17 September 1949, he quit the DK and launched his political party but kept the Dravidian agenda intact as the ideological template of the party. Twenty-three years later in 1972, the party again split when veteran actor and treasurer M.G. Ramachandran quit DMK to form ADMK which later became AIADMK.
The faction-ridden AIADMK appears to have found its moorings after the crushing defeat in the post-Jayalalithaa polls, factionalism, Shashikala’s ouster and arch rival DMK’s resounding poll victory. The Madurai conference held in the background of golden jubilee of the party became a significant milestone as it elevated E. K. Palaniswamy as the one and only apex leader. The fact that the birthday bash happened in the Thevar-dominated Madurai, stronghold of estranged party veteran O. Panneerselvam, added importance to the event.
The huge arched-shaped entrance of the meeting venue, one of the first major political rally since being elected party’s Secretary General in July 2022, depicting a fort (the seat of power in the state) adorned with an image of Palaniswamy along with AIADMK stalwarts M. G. Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa, anointed Edappadi K. Palaniswami as “Puratchi Tamizar” (Revolutionary Tamilian), rhyming with the titles of silver screen idols and former chief ministers MGR & Jayalalitha (Puratchi Talaivar and Puratchi Talaivi).
His appeal to party workers to work hard to win all 40 Lok Sabha seats was a clear indication of his party’s plan to go it alone after jettisoning the BJP. Palaniswamy also played down BJP’s event to flag off party president Annamalai’s rally attended by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. He warned the BJP of serious consequences if ousted AIADMK leaders T.T.V. Dinakaran and O. Panneerselvam were made part of the NDA alliance.
The BJP is at crossroads in Tamil Nadu. It has to decide its course of action that will make or mar its future. For a change, the political situation seems to be favouring the BJP as the AIADMK’s decision is seen as a blessing in disguise.
Former IPS officer and a popular leader Annamalai is gaining ground and his popularity is in ascendency day by day. The recent foot-in-the-mouth statement of CM Stalin’s son swearing to destroy Sanatana Dharma is likely to have a deeply polarising effect on the voters, much to the advantage of the BJP. Again, the anti-BJP votes may get split between the two Dravidian parties, thereby reducing the vote margin in a triangular contest. The two Dravidian parties consider the BJP as an impediment in their minority vote bank politics. Again, in the post Jayalalithaa-Karunanidhi era politics in Tamil Nadu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be a more popular leader capable of drawing huge crowds and dipping into the Dravidian vote bank.
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Work ahead for BJP
The biggest challenge for the BJP would be converting the anti-DMK-AIADMK sentiment into votes. Going by the caste and ideological equations, it is not easy for the BJP to win substantial seats in Tamil Nadu but not an impossible task either. Tamil Nadu politics is in a state of flux with young voters willing to try the BJP. The anti-Hindu sentiment has ebbed yielding to a surge in pro-Hindu sentiment. The poor economic record of the Dravidian parties coupled with corruption charges are likely to drive the first-time voters into the Annamalai bandwagon who appears to be a promising and welcome change that the state was waiting for. A two to three per cent vote swing can probably give the BJP two dozen seats in Lok Sabha.
If the BJP is able to bring the estranged AIADMK leaders and T.T.V. Dinakaran into the NDA fold, it could pose a tough challenge to the Dravidian parties. Incidentally, T. T. V. Dinakaran’s party Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazagam (AMMK) comes with the popularity of Jayalalithaa without the Dravidian baggage (not even in its name).
In all, the state promises to be as full of suspense as the silver screen that catapulted the Dravidian parties to power.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)