For Manipur to have a real shot at peace, BJP must let President’s Rule stay for a while

The sigh of relief from the Kuki--Zo-Hmar group at the declaration of President’s Rule in Manipur was almost a whoop of victory. But the Meitei community has taken a completely contrary stance.

Illustration: Soham Sen | ThePrint

For many, the crisis that has held Manipur in its grip since 3 May 2023 may have receded into the back of our minds. But the mind’s eye has a way of remembering. The shocking visuals beamed out of that northeastern state on 3 May 2023—showing the brutal bloodbath between Meiteis and Kukis or, some weeks later, images of two hapless women stripped, naked, and molested while being paraded—are images no one can possibly unsee or forget.

So when President Droupadi Murmu imposed President’s Rule in Manipur, it jolted that dreadful memory. Would it be farfetched to say a collective sigh of relief went up across the country? Since the Constitution came into force in 1950, Article 356 has been imposed 134–135 times in the country and 11 times—some say 10—in Manipur alone. But never before was it greeted with such a chorus of “at last,” “finally,” or “thank goodness.” Many in Manipur, too, exhaled.

Less than 24 hours later, however, President’s Rule itself has become a bitter bone of contention between the warring communities of the state—the Kuki Zo Hmar tribals and the Meiteis.

The tribals have welcomed Article 356, but COCOMI, a civil society group of Meiteis, has slammed it, calling it “undemocratic,” “unjustified,” and a “deliberate ploy” to thrust Manipur into further crisis.

What happens next is crucial. If President’s Rule is short-lived, Manipur could revert to its troubled status quo. Article 356 was imposed not because of a sudden breakdown of law and order but because of a political crisis triggered by Chief Minister N Biren Singh’s resignation in the face of a no-confidence vote in the Assembly—which he could not win. The Assembly was not dissolved; it is now in suspended animation. The moment the BJP finds a candidate acceptable as Chief Minister to most, it could be back in power in the state.

From the administration’s point of view, if President’s Rule is to give Manipur a real shot at peace, it needs to remain in place for a while—a period during which central paramilitary forces and a neutral administration can function without fear or favour and free of political interference. These issues have dogged attempts to restore normalcy in a state wracked by 21 months of violence that has left over 250 dead, more than 60,000 displaced, an economy in shambles, and hostilities between the Kuki and Meitei communities seemingly beyond repair.

For the BJP, imposing President’s Rule in Manipur—which has the famed “double-engine sarkar”—could not have been easy. It is an admission of failure. But now that it has ordered Article 356, will it leave it in place to give Manipur time to heal, or did it merely use the constitutional provision as a stopgap political tool?

Buffer zones, pumpis and non-state radicals

The sigh of relief from the Kukis, Zomis, and Hmars—Manipur’s 25 per cent tribal population—at the declaration of Article 356 was almost a whoop of victory. They had been demanding it since 3 May 2023, when they were forced to flee the Meitei-dominated Imphal Valley and retreat to the hills. For them, Biren Singh’s resignation, Article 356, extension of AFSPA in the Imphal Valley area and the creation of a separate administration for tribals (if not a Union Territory) are constants. And they are treading carefully.

The “buffer zones” between the valley and the hills—a Lakshman Rekha of military-style bunkers—are here to stay, they say. Drone squadrons and sniper groups are on the lookout for trouble around the clock. In addition, their weapon of choice is the pumpi—crude cannons that, they claim, can hit targets up to 7 km away. Their biggest worry is the “ATs” or Arambai Tenggol, an armed force of Meitei youth whose guns were mostly looted from police armouries in 2023; around 6,000 went missing.

However, the Meitei community has taken a completely contrary stance. On Friday afternoon, in a statement, COCOMI—the Meitei civil society group—questioned the Centre’s “true intentions” for forcing the Chief Minister to resign in the dead of night, just before a crucial state assembly session, without any proper explanation to the people. It accused the Centre of pursuing a “sinister agenda” aimed at placing Manipur—and particularly the Meitei community—under direct military control.

“This decision (of President’s Rule) conveniently aligns with the longstanding demands of Kuki militants and separatist groups who have been advocating for the imposition of AFSPA and President’s Rule in Manipur,” the COCOMI statement said.

Privately, some Meitei residents of Imphal say they were relieved by President’s Rule, as it would free them from being bullied and extorted by Meitei underground elements and the ATs. But their relief may be brief.

Opportunity for dialogue

The one big opportunity that President’s Rule offers is something that has not been possible since the start of Kuki–Meitei hostilities: dialogue. Whether its duration is long or short, this hiatus creates a chance for talks between communities that are now ferociously opposed to each other. All eyes are on the Governor, who is best placed to guide Manipur out of its new normal of mindless violence that has persisted for nearly two years. A huge security force—comprising 288 companies of CAPF and 150 battalions of Army and Assam Rifles—is posted in the state to pave the path to peace.

But, of course, the key to it all lies at the BJP headquarters in Delhi. Their political priorities—whether favoring the Manipuri people or BJP muscle—will decide the fate of this beleaguered state.

Monideepa Banerjie is a senior journalist based in Kolkata. She tweets @Monideepa62. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)