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HomeOpinionPoliTricksCan Ashok Gehlot be the next Ahmed Patel for Congress? Conditions apply

Can Ashok Gehlot be the next Ahmed Patel for Congress? Conditions apply

With the loss of Ahmed Patel and Tarun Gogoi, Congress has a big problem. And very few candidates to solve it.

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For the Congress, the overarching question now is — who will be the next Ahmed Patel? Can Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, with all his seasoned years behind him, step in to become party’s main strategist at the national level? Or is the only option left with the Gandhi family is grooming a new Ahmed Patel?

The loss of party veterans Ahmed Patel and Tarun Gogoi couldn’t have come at a worse time, and poses a unique problem for the Congress — both leaders have no easy replacements and have been indispensable in their own right.

As the party’s chief strategist, and a very astute one at that, Ahmed Patel’s presence would have been the most critical for the Congress at this juncture — when it is struggling to keep itself afloat, needs to undergo a complete overhaul, resurrect itself electorally and most importantly, build new friendships and keep old alliances alive. Who can fill in for Patel now? Is there a senior enough leader who understands politics and is respected across party lines, and is also trusted by Rahul Gandhi? There is no easy answer, but Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot perhaps comes the closest.

As for Tarun Gogoi, the Congress has lost its only leader in Assam, just months before the assembly polls that the party can ill-afford to get wiped out in. And the crisis is the same — the absence of any replacement in the immediate future.


Also read: In Congress after Ahmed Patel, Rahul Gandhi needs to play the bigger person, call for unity


The next Ahmed Patel

It would hardly be an exaggeration to say a Congress without Ahmed Patel won’t be the same. Enough has been said and written about the politician from Gujarat’s Bharuch, his unique skills, his grip over Indian politics and his indispensability for interim Congress president Sonia Gandhi. The big question, therefore, is who can replace Ahmed Patel as the Congress’ chief strategist and the top command’s crafty adviser?

After all, if there was one political mind that could give Bharatiya Janata Party’s Amit Shah a run for his money, it was Patel.

The travesty of the Congress is that there are hardly any names that crop up as even remote replacements. But if one looks at ticking some crucial boxes — a veteran who understands the Indian political landscape, is willing to get hands muddied in this ever-murky sphere, has proved their mettle and has the ability to reach out to friends and foes alike — then perhaps Ashok Gehlot can serve as the immediate answer.

Gehlot has delivered in Rajasthan, is an out-and-out organisation man, has a deep understanding of what politics entails, is a Gandhi family loyalist, is jugaadu enough to manage the twists and turns, is respected by politicians across party lines and with the entire Sachin Pilot saga, has shown why he remains way ahead of his younger colleagues when it comes to Machiavellianism.

Ashok Gehlot also has Rahul Gandhi’s ear, which is most crucial if the two are to work together. Among his contemporaries like Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath, Gehlot fits the bill the best. Singh is mercurial and often suffers from the foot-in-the-mouth syndrome. Kamal Nath, meanwhile, is someone who can manage difficult situations, but after his inability to retain his own throne in Madhya Pradesh, stands greatly diminished.


Also read: No one in Team Rahul can be a pillar like Ahmed Patel, Congress leaders say


Plan B

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh would have been a good bet, but he is nearing 80 and does not have many years of active politics left in him. Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh doesn’t have enough exposure at the national level. Leaders such as Jairam Ramesh might have served as backroom advisers, but barely understand the rigmarole of electoral politics well enough to become crisis managers. Mallikarjun Kharge is seasoned, but is more a man of knowing the rule-book than a political animal. Other seniors like Kapil Sibal and Salman Khurshid don’t have the political acumen or grit.

Among the younger lot, Rahul Gandhi is close to general secretary Randeep Surjewala, who has emerged as a trusted aide to the former party president. Surjewala, however, does not have the experience, outreach or bent of mind that Patel was known for. His proud, ill-advised declaration of Rahul Gandhi being the janeudhaari Brahmin ahead of the 2017 Gujarat election will continue to haunt the Congress party for years to come.

In Team Rahul, the backroom boys — from Kanishka Singh to Alankar Sawai — are more technocrats, MBA-type planners than people who actually understand what Indian politics is all about.

While Gehlot seems like the best bet, he is far from being the ideal choice. He will turn 70 next year, so age is not his biggest strength. His active electoral politics has remained confined to Rajasthan, and his inroads in Delhi are far less deep than Patel’s. And most importantly, he has his own state and his chair to guard with Sachin Pilot continuing to breathe down his neck.

The Congress must, therefore, groom and create another Ahmed Patel. To be sure, Congress leaders today say there is nobody in Team Rahul who can play that part, and they may be right. But then, Ahmed Patel wasn’t born this clever strategist either, he moulded himself into this frame and with his perfect partnership with Sonia Gandhi, created a rock-solid position for himself.

The tragedy, however, is that Rahul Gandhi does not have the luxury or time to create a Patel, he needs one ASAP. The Congress is losing election after election, state after state and is now in the danger of losing one ally after another. It desperately needs a master strategist who will at least help it remain afloat.


Also read: Indira to Rahul — Why every Gandhi loves Ashok Gehlot, the perfect Congressman


What after Tarun Gogoi?

Moving to the northeast, Tarun Gogoi was the only Congress leader left in Assam. A hugely successful politician and the state’s longest-serving chief minister, Gogoi kept the party thriving in the northeastern state. Known to be Assam’s powerful unifier, Gogoi has been among Congress’ more underrated but tallest leaders.

To put it bluntly, Congress has no real leader left in Assam. Losing Himanta Biswa Sarma to the BJP was political suicide and with Gogoi gone, the hole is gaping and real. Gaurav Gogoi has a long, long way to go before he can lead the party in the state to even a fraction of his father’s ability. He has to spend more time in Assam, get a grip over the party organisation and prove his electoral skills. Other senior leaders like Ripun Bora and leader of opposition in the assembly Debabrata Saikia have hardly shown much promise. They lack mass appeal and don’t have a grip over the organisation as Gogoi did.

I have covered elections on the ground in Assam fairly extensively, and have found Tarun Gogoi’s popularity fascinating, even ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, which was entirely around Narendra Modi and which the Congress went on to perform miserably in. It is hard to find an old-world politician like Gogoi anymore, someone who was loved irrespective of his party’s steep downfall and whose goodwill among the people went beyond electoral results.

This is a crucial time for the Congress in Assam. It cannot afford to put up a miserable show in the assembly polls due next year. The BJP has already established its hold over the state in quick time, but a bad loss for the Congress would make its comeback in the state anytime in the foreseeable future very tough. It needs to put up a respectable show, and remain in the game in the state. Assam is pretty much a bipolar state now, with the Asom Gana Parishad and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF as marginal players. Even if the BJP has made itself a strong force there, Assam can well become another Rajasthan where the two parties rotate power, provided the Congress keeps its own base intact.

For the Congress, and for the Gandhi family, Ahmed Patel and Tarun Gogoi’s deaths have created what seems like an insurmountable challenge — of finding leaders who can fill in to match even a fraction of what these two were able to do for the party.

Views are personal.

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Well Congress has to put its act right without loosing any time. Speed is a Important factor in today’s time. There is no scope for laxity. Without any bias the high command should have a serious introspection. Having political light weights as your advisors will not help.
    Same is the case having oldies around.
    First of all have a powerful and capable congress president, who is visible , ideally in his 60-65 age group. Each state should have a central representative. And have 4 or 5 vice-president.
    Amend the constitution of the party so that it is in tune with the current times.

  2. Can Smt Ruhi Tiwari elaborate on exactly how “After all, if there was one political mind that could give Bharatiya Janata Party’s Amit Shah a run for his money, it was Patel?” After Shri Amit Shah came on the national scene, Congress has not even got enough seats to get the position of Leader of the Opposition. If this is giving a run for money, I would seriously doubt Smt Tiwari political acumen.

  3. It is over 36 years when Congress party got majority on its own of seats in Loksabha in 1984.Since then , its tally is dwindling progressively in every election. Election results of 2024 will be one when for the first time “NO PERSON FROM NEHRU ” dynasty will be elected to Loksabha . Congress does not need any Fixer . it need LIQUIDATOR as is appointed for bankrupt and liquidating firms .

  4. POOHI is a CONGRASS journalist.

    For many congrass journalist Ahmedji was a father figure.

    I would like to offer my heart felt condolences to this journalists.

    ” THE PRINCE ” should now take initiative to appoint this journalists as his advisers to fill the void.

    POOHI is wasting her time posing as a journalist. She should take to congrass politics full time.

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