What is it about N Biren Singh, the chief minister of Manipur, that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reluctant to remove him? The Bharatiya Janata Party has been far too generous with the former Congress minister. He had joined the BJP in October 2016 only to become CM six months later—in March 2017. Barely eight weeks before that, in January, Singh’s son had been sentenced to five years of rigorous imprisonment for killing a 21-year-old man in a 2011 road rage case.
In 2020, four BJP MLAs resigned from the party. Its alliance partner, the National People’s Party (NPP), withdrew support from the government, questioning its “one-man style of functioning”. The BJP high command backed the CM and brokered peace.
PM Modi continues to back Biren Singh even after over 140 people have died in the ethnic conflict in the state since May. In his public address on 20 July, he looked angry when he spoke about the barbaric incident of the two Kuki women paraded naked and raped in Manipur. He spoke about the country being shamed by this. But there was nothing about the Biren Singh-led government — not even a word of advice or caution. He rather looked upset with the opposition parties. Did they expect him to remind the Manipur CM of ‘raj dharma’? It was the Manipur Police that had handed over the women to the mob who paraded them naked and raped them, The Indian Express reported.
But, going by BJP leaders’ logic, the Manipur CM need not have moral compunctions or shame any more than his counterparts in other states. Because, as the PM suggested on Thursday, crimes happen against women in Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, too.
That brings us to the question of why PM Modi is so determined to defend CM Biren Singh.
There are four reasons for it.
Also read: Manipur sexual violence is political. Don’t deny accountability by calling it a ‘mindless mob’
Why PM Modi won’t sack Biren Singh
First, nobody can force PM Modi to do anything. If opposition parties are demanding Singh’s resignation, they are only helping him. Just as they helped Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw following the Odisha train tragedy—one of the worst rail accidents in recent times.
The second reason is that for the BJP, misgovernance is no reason for changing CMs. They are replaced at will when it’s politically expedient ahead of elections — Anandiben Patel and Vijay Rupani in Gujarat, Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat in Uttarakhand, BS Yediyurappa in Karnataka, and Biplab Deb in Tripura.
Third reason: Next assembly election in Manipur is four years away, and public memory is short. BJP-led governments at the Centre and in states were found so wanting in action during the second wave of Covid-19 that party MPs and MLAs were going public with their grouses.
Once the ferocity of the second wave subsided, with thousands dead, survivors were back to hailing PM Modi for vaccination and free food grains. So, the violence in Manipur will also pass, and everyone will forget Biren Singh’s follies. Or so the BJP strategist must think.
Fourth reason: Biren Singh is too valuable to be dumped. He led the BJP to secure a majority in the state assembly in 2022 — for the first time on its own. He enjoys the support of Hindu Meiteis, the BJP’s core votebank that constitute 53 per cent of the population. Besides, amid this chaos in Manipur, it’s not easy to pick a BJP MLA who can replace Singh and fix things quickly. Leadership change may only compound the situation.
There is also a grudging realisation in the BJP that it’s not entirely his fault if the situation is deteriorating. The Centre has virtually taken over things, although it maintains ambiguity about the invocation of Article 355. On 5 May, then-Manipur DGP P Doungel told reporters that the Centre had taken over the state’s security by invoking Article 355, which enjoins upon the Centre a duty to protect a state from external aggression or internal disturbances. Other state officials later denied it, and the Union home ministry has been ambivalent about it.
That aside, it was the Centre that got the state government to appoint Kuldiep Singh, a retired Indian Police Service (IPS) officer of West Bengal cadre who served as director general of Central Reserve Police Forces (CRPF), as its security advisor. He is said to enjoy the confidence of Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
Tripura cadre IPS officer Rajiv Singh was appointed Manipur DGP in place of Doungel, a Kuki. Neither of these two officers belongs to Manipur and has had any previous work experience. These top officials are learnt to be directly in touch with New Delhi. If they have failed to deliver so far, Biren Singh can’t be blamed. Imposition of President’s Rule is politically fraught because if the Centre fails to restore normalcy quickly, it will put a question mark directly on the Modi government’s ability and competence.
Also read: There is a lot one can get away with in Modi’s India. Manipur just…
Why PM Modi must sack Biren Singh
There are, however, five reasons why PM Modi must axe the Manipur CM. First, if 30-40 per cent of the population — the Kukis and other tribes — doesn’t trust the CM, the situation is unlikely to change unless he goes. The Centre shouldn’t treat this bloody ethnic conflict as a law-and-order problem. It requires a political healing touch. A CM who is seen as partisan can’t provide it. Given the crisis of confidence in the local political leadership, it’s better for the Centre to impose President’s Rule and have a direct dialogue with the warring sides. Amit Shah was said to have drawn a good response from the Kuki-Zomi tribals when he visited Churachandpur. PM Modi also enjoys the trust of both tribals and non-tribals in Manipur. They need to be more proactive and directly involved.
Second, while the Centre seems to be waiting for the crisis to dissipate over time, there are no signs of it even after 11 weeks. Rather, it threatens to engulf other states in the Northeast. While the Mizoram government is struggling to deal with over 12,000 Kuki-Zomi migrants from Manipur, Meiteis living in the state have started fleeing after the Peace Accord MNF Association—an outfit of former Mizo militants—issued a statement asking them to leave “for their own safety”, The Indian Express reported.
Many of these Meiteis are reportedly from Assam’s Barak Valley. As they head home, the Assam government must be wary. There are estimated five lakh Manipuri-origin settlers in Assam.
Meghalaya earlier witnessed a Kuki-Meitei brawl in Shillong after the outbreak of violence in Manipur in May.
The Northeast is an ethnic mosaic, and any conflict in one place has the potential to manifest in different forms across the region.
The third reason why PM Modi must let his Manipur government go is the adverse political and electoral implications—a perfect reason for the BJP to drop a CM. While the ruling party has resorted to whataboutery to counter the opposition’s attack over the Manipur gangrape incident, it seems to be unmindful of its women constituency. Although a series of women-centric schemes and programmes—LPG connections, toilet facilities, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, free foodgrains during Covid, and Nal Se Jal scheme, among others—endeared PM Modi to them, the effect seems to be wearing off. Post-poll and exit poll surveys in the last Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka assembly elections show how the BJP’s support base among women has been shrinking and that of the Congress is rising, contributing to the latter’s victory in the two states.
The BJP is welcome to dismiss it with the argument that people vote differently in the Lok Sabha and assembly elections. The ruling party should, however, worry about its message to women voters. It has refused to sack Haryana minister Sandeep Singh while the state police has been probing allegations of sexual harassment of a female athlete coach for the past seven months.
The BJP’s stout defence of MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh in the women wrestlers’ sexual harassment case was fresh in public memory when the horrendous video from Manipur surfaced. The BJP’s whataboutery over this incident sounds insensitive and cynical. The party must ponder whether it’s taking PM Modi’s women voters for granted.
The fourth reason for him to act against Biren Singh is again political — its implications for the tribal votebank. Tribals constitute 8.9 per cent of India’s population and have a significant presence in the four poll-bound states where the BJP has big stakes — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana. Trust the opposition to talk about the BJP’s failure to protect tribals in Manipur in the coming elections. Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren has already written to President Droupadi Murmu, drawing her attention to the Manipur incident and saying, “We cannot and must not let our fellow tribal brothers and sisters be treated in this appallingly barbaric way.” Tribal outfits in Gujarat have started reacting to the violence in Manipur as they gave a call for a bandh on Sunday. The Congress was quick to extend support, of course. The BJP can expect the opposition to turn on the heat further.
Last but not the least, PM Modi must sack the Biren Singh government because for once, he is not looking like the strong and decisive leader the people started voting for in 2014. He is looking unsure, helpless, and clueless about how to solve the crisis in Manipur.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)