If you travel around Kashmir today, you are bound to come across numerous stories of hope. Just go 50 km south of Srinagar to Shopian, a terror hotbed that saw the burning of schools by militants not long back. At Higher Secondary School Narapora, you will meet young boys and girls who all want to become IAS officers.
Sehrish, a Class XII student, writes poetry in Kashmiri. She loves to recite her latest: “Our greeting to the moon, Chandrayaan 3…Bharat is now symbol of greatness/Bharat holds the leadership now/salute to your imagination, O Great Garderner….” The loose English translation doesn’t do justice to the Kashmiri poem, though. It was so beautiful that all her classmates clapped for long when she recited it in my presence. Hearing about the Chandrayaan programme and the greatness of ‘Bharat’ in a Shopian school should not surprise you. These students are all dreaming to fly high.
Sehrish walks nine kilometres one way to reach school. Walking 5-10 km to school is normal for many students in Shopian. Showing the new online library and improved amenities at the school, John Mohammed Paul, a history teacher, told me: “The government has done some good things here. It should also consider our request to arrange vehicles for pick-and-drop facilities for these poor children! It will change their life.” The school building had been set on fire by militants a few years ago. But the students studying there have a fire of a different kind in their belly.
There was a time when people, including government officials, wouldn’t venture out in far-flung rural areas of Shopian. Now you can see them everywhere, running a waste disposal unit, making cricket playgrounds, building roads and bridges, laying pipes under Jal Jeevan Mission, overseeing MNREGA works and so on and so forth.
You will hear similar stories in Baramullah and elsewhere. Unless you are a Kashmiri politician, you can’t miss these visible signs of change. You can’t but hear stories of hopes and dreams. “Thoda kaam toh hua hai (Some development works have been carried out),” is the common refrain. Lieutenant-Governor Manoj Sinha often comes in for praise. People want much more, of course, especially jobs.
Ask them what they want from the next government — jobs and development are the common answer. Article 370 remains a touchy issue. So is the issue of those in jails on various charges. These touchy issues assume prominence at the very sight of TV cameras, of course. Abdullahs and Muftis may promise to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, but the realisation is gradually sinking in the people that it’s gone forever. Our identity has been snatched, they say with a sigh of sorrow and longing. It’s politically correct for the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to promise the restoration of Article 370 and 35a, but it’s mere rhetoric.
Where does Kashmir go from here? There is a lot of enthusiasm for the upcoming assembly elections. It has been 10 years since they voted to elect their government. They want their own, not ‘Delhi’s rule’. So, count on impressive turnouts in the assembly poll as in the Lok Sabha election. No wonder, even Jamaat-e-Islami, banned under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, couldn’t stay away from it. It has fielded and backed seven candidates. Out on an interim bail to campaign, terror-funding accused Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) has fielded about three dozen candidates, and he is drawing impressive crowds.
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Three scenarios on 8 October
Whatever may be your political and ideological leanings, you can’t miss these changes in Kashmir. However, for all their enthusiasm about this election, Kashmiris may be in for disappointment sooner than later, no matter who wins or loses on 8 October when the results are out. Before I explain why, let me talk about the three scenarios that may emerge on that day.
First, there will be a clear winner who will go on to form the government. Only the Congress-NC combine are contesting on all 90 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting a total of 62 seats, including only 19 out of the 47 seats in the valley. The ruling party at the Centre will, therefore, have to perform a miracle to win 46 seats, the majority mark. If we keep miracles out of consideration, the only party or (pre-poll) combine that can secure a clear majority on their own is the Congress-NC. If they fall short of up to half-a-dozen seats or so, they can still hope to cobble up the numbers — including from the PDP, if need be. Omar Abdullah is likely to be the chief minister in the first scenario.
Second, there is a badly fractured verdict, with the Congress-NC game spoilt by Engineer Rashid’s AIP, Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference, and even JeI-backed Independents. That’s where the BJP’s hopes lie, party insiders tell me. Rashid may be anti-BJP today, but the fact is that in the run-up to the 2014 assembly election, he had declared that he was ready to join hands with anybody, including the BJP, to resolve the Kashmir problem. That was five years before he was put in jail on terror-funding charges and 10 years before he emerged as a ‘new alternative’ in Kashmir after defeating Omar Abdullah in Baramulla Lok Sabha poll. AIP’s understanding with the JeI—of not fielding candidates against each other—on Sunday has added a fresh twist. Rashid will, however, be back in jail by the time results are out. The AIP winners, if any, will have to have a lot of guts to say ‘no’ to the BJP. Other independents will face a similar predicament. The Azad-Bukhari-Lone trio are any way the BJP’s partners for all practical purposes. In the second scenario, the BJP would get the chance to fulfil its long-held dream — of having a Hindu CM in Srinagar.
The third scenario is that the verdict is so fractured that no party or coalition is able to form the government. That would mean the continuation of the Manoj Sinha-led administration without any elected government.
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Disappointment awaits on 8 October
At this point, let me revert to what I said earlier: The Kashmiris would be in for disappointment, no matter who wins on 8 October. The third scenario will bring immediate disappointment, which will eventually set in in the second scenario, too. PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter was right when she told ThePrint in an interview that the next CM of Jammu & Kashmir would be a mere mayor of a municipal corporation. With most of the powers of an elected government vested in the L-G even after the election, the next CM and his party/combine would be only doing what Arvind Kejriwal did in Delhi — fight with the L-G office. In Delhi, the L-G office runs the Delhi administration through bureaucrats, but it’s the elected government that must take the flak for anything that goes wrong. If the Congress-NC wins the election, the elected government would be as toothless and ineffective as that in Delhi. Only that the people’s disappointment would have far more serious implications and repercussions in Jammu and Kashmir!
The second scenario is the last the Valley people would want. There is goodwill for L-G Manoj Sinha for making the stalled wheels of development finally move, howsoever slowly. But the BJP is a complete no-no for the people in the Valley. The PDP is still paying for partnering with the BJP to form the government. The Centre’s unpopularity in the Valley is not just about Article 370. It’s about Hindutva politics, perceived heavy-handedness of the BJP-led Centre, and much more. As it is, the only way the BJP could form the government in Jammu & Kashmir is by roping in independent MLAs or those who the people would elect as a mark of protest against the state of affairs or their rejection of mainstream parties. Forming governments by hook or by crook in other states is one thing. But any attempt to do so in J&K would have grave consequences. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah would know it more than anybody else. Having a BJP CM, even if not Hindu, has been a dream of every party worker. Modi-Shah must resist the temptation to fulfil it in national interest. For it will nullify everything they have achieved in the last five years and turn the clock back.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)
If BJP wins 35 seats or nearby most probably BJP will form government because they know how to make government by hook or crook.
National interest would be BJP form government otherwise more suffers await for Jammu and Kashmir
That has always been my view. Given the nature of Kashmir and what it means to India’s abiding national interest.