The Nationalist Congress Party chief got advice from one of his campaign managers when he hit the campaign trail: “Has it ever struck you that nobody has seen you smiling? All your pictures in newspapers and TV have an angry, grumpy look. You must smile and laugh.” Ajit Pawar seems to have taken it seriously. He is all smiles nowadays, although laughter is still a work in progress.
For someone who has always been seen in white, wearing a pink jacket must have made Pawar smirk in front of the mirror. His party has turned pink, a colour associated with femininity. It goes well with his claims for credit for the potentially game-changing Ladki Bahin scheme.
Campaigning for Nawab Malik in his constituency, Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, was a first for Pawar. Malik has been contesting on the NCP ticket since 2014 but never did Ajit Pawar turn up to campaign in his constituency. Pawar was never the people’s man. He was always there for workers and leaders. He would help them in every possible way but maintained a tough exterior, not indulging in even pleasantries.
It’s a new Ajit Pawar that Maharashtra is witnessing. He has turned out to be a tough bargainer, too. NCP ally Bharatiya Janata Party wanted Vadgaonheri seat, telling the NCP leadership that sitting NCP MLA Sunil Tingre has been facing public backlash for his alleged interference in police work in the Pune Porsche crash case.
Pawar put his foot down. The BJP, which had accused NCP MLA Nawab Malik of having links with underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, was opposed to the NCP fielding him from Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar. Ajit Pawar would have none of it. The BJP has decided not to campaign for Malik.
At the end of the hard bargain, Pawar ended up with 57 seats. This is not enough to put him in the driver’s seat regardless of his party’s strike rate in the elections. Many of his allies in the Mahayuti find him a political “weakling”. He might even drag the Mahayuti tally down, a Sena functionary told me. He is also an “ideological misfit” in the ruling coalition, who has publicly aired his objections to Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge toh katenge (if divided, we will get cut down)’ slogan.
Mahayuti vs MVA or more?
The Ajit Pawar camp remains upbeat about his party’s prospects. The NCP is likely to get over 30 seats, claim party strategists, adding that it would make him indispensable for the BJP and Shiv Sena if they were to form the government. Even if the tally is lower and the BJP-Sena doesn’t need him to form the government, “they can’t dump him and leave the entire sugar belt unrepresented in the next government”, an Ajit Pawar loyalist told me.
That’s the least NCP leaders expect. The best scenario, according to them, is when the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena perform below par and need the NCP to form the next government.
That brings us to the most interesting aspect of this Maharashtra election. There are two major alliances with three constituents each. On the face of it, the Mahayuti versus the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is the dominant theme. Scratch below the surface and you find how each of these six is ranged against the other five.
Ask Sena leaders. They know the BJP’s ambition to have its own chief minister again. The BJP is contesting 148 seats. If it wins anywhere near 90 or 100, there is no way that they are going to give up the CM’s chair this time. Eknath Shinde has proved himself much better as a politician and administrator than the BJP might have expected when it handed over the coveted CM’s chair to him.
Another term for Shinde and the BJP would be reduced to playing second fiddle to the Sena for a long time to come – something it did until 2014. It’s quite simple for the BJP. Get one each of the two Senas and two NCPs on your side and it’s only a matter of time that you mop up the other two substantially, if not wholly. All that the BJP needs is about a 60 per cent strike rate and it will be back in a commanding position.
Shinde must, therefore, ensure that his party wins the maximum of the 80 seats it’s contesting to make him indispensable for the BJP. Even if the BJP emerges as the single largest party, the Sena’s indispensability would give Shinde enough manoeuvrability to reclaim the CM’s chair. He could then hope to mop up the other Sena and pursue his expansion plans.
Essentially, it’s in the interest of each of the Mahayuti constituents to see the other underperform—just about enough to deny the MVA any opportunity.
Endless possibilities
Let’s look at the Opposition camp now. The Congress is contesting 102 seats, the Shiv Sena (UBT) 96 and NCP (SP) 86. It’s the lowest for the Congress, which had to give in to its allies in Maharashtra after the setback in the 2024 Haryana elections. Even BJP strategists are surprised by the way the Congress gave in.
“The Congress should have been more assertive because it was the transfer of Congress voters because of which Uddhav’s Sena gained nine seats in the Lok Sabha. The Congress surrendered at least 35 winnable seats to them (allies),” a senior BJP strategist told me in Mumbai. One doesn’t know if this sympathy had anything to do with the fact that the BJP has had the better of the Congress in direct contests between the two in the past decade. Missed opportunities. As it is, the BJP and the Congress are in direct contest in 76 seats, around half of which are in the Vidarbha region.
Anyway, if Uddhav Thackeray hopes to have a shot at the CM’s chair again, he would eye 2019-like results – Shiv Sena 56, NCP 54 and Congress 44. The other two would have similar expectations. They would want the Mahayuti to do badly but not so badly as to give any of the three MVA constituents a commanding position in terms of numbers.
Let’s also not forget the fact that Sharad Pawar, who let his party split to anoint his daughter Supriya Sule as his successor, would do anything to ensure a bright future for her. What better than Supriya becoming the CM—in 2024 or a couple of years later? Even if that means an agreement to merge the NCP (SP) with Congress at some point?
Here is another scenario. Sharad Pawar emerges the winner in his battle against the nephew but the MVA doesn’t have adequate numbers to form the government. What if the Mahayuti can muster them by swapping one Pawar with another? That will also give the uncle an opportunity to finish his nephew’s party for good.
That’s why the Maharashtra assembly election is so interesting. It’s pregnant with all kinds of possibilities.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)