For tribal people in remote villages of Jharkhand, where voting in the ongoing assembly election ends today, it is life as usual. They are unconcerned about the impeachment of US President Donald Trump, the death sentence awarded to former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf, or the protests raging in India over the amended Citizenship Act. Their concerns arise from the slowing economy because their daily life and wages hinge on it.
Yet, for most candidates and political parties in this election, the result of which will be announced Monday, the people in this remote, land-locked tribal state must have everything to do with all the global, regional and national events currently making news. Which is why the campaign speeches of leaders, from the Congress to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), were littered with every issue except those that directly concern the tribal populace.
Ace campaigners of the BJP – of late only Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah – have spoken about terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil, the dangers of cross-border terrorism, of “infiltrators” trying to enter India “using the Nepal border”, and the promise of constructing a magnificent Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. Lower-rung leaders have made valiant attempts at highlighting the plight of minorities in neighbouring Islamic countries and how the BJP government is committed towards protecting them. Not to be left behind, the opposition has vociferously countered the narrative and vowed to protect the Constitution, if elected.
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Local issues, local candidates
The only ones who covered local issues in their election speeches during the entire campaign in Jharkhand were the independent candidates, some of them rejected by both national parties, the BJP and the Congress, or leaders of regional parties with no say in national politics but who hold tremendous clout locally. It wouldn’t be a surprise if some of them manage to register a win, even if with a wafer-thin margin.
It is possible that the Jharkhand election may result in a hung assembly.
If that happens, it should work as a reminder to the national parties, which make policies and provide the development and budgetary assistance to smaller states when they are in power at the Centre, that dwelling on national and international issues doesn’t always pay dividends.
PM Modi and Amit Shah have raised local issues like the Naxal menace and the lack of development in tribal and rural areas, and their rallies have had better attendance than nearly all other leaders across parties. So it remains to be seen which way Jharkhand, carved out of Bihar in 2000 when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government was in power – something Shah promptly reminded voters at one of his rallies last month – would go.
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BJP’s campaign strategies
The BJP has managed to run high-profile campaigns touching upon issues that are not necessarily local and yet managed to win a comfortable number of seats in other state elections. One reason why the party succeeds in this strategy is that people continue to be enamoured with the charisma of PM Modi, who is unrivalled in leadership. People believe him and repose trust in his appeals of furthering development projects. Contrary to this, local and senior Congress leaders, seem to lack this appeal and trust among the voting public.
Besides, the BJP also has an efficient and robust grassroots level cadre that gears up for elections long before other parties do. This cadre force is supplemented by a number of local-level social organisations and non-governmental outfits started and supported by the ideological fountainhead of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Thus, the unmatched charisma of PM Modi, the excellent organisational capacities of the party’s former president Amit Shah, and untiring work of the cadre that fans out to every voting booth, give a tremendous edge to the BJP, no matter what subject the election campaign revolves around.
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And yet, the worry
But there is considerable concern among sections of the BJP at the state level that the party may probably have banked too much on the capabilities of its two star campaigners in the Jharkhand election this time around. The stunning and almost unexpected defeat in the Chhattisgarh assembly election in December 2018, after being in power for 15 years under the towering local leader Raman Singh, has frequently crossed their mind. The BJP in Chhattisgarh was reduced from 49 seats to 15 seats in the 90-member assembly, ceding the state to the Congress.
It is nobody’s argument that the rural and tribal population is ignorant of the national issues, cross-border terrorism or the woeful persecution of the minorities in neighbouring countries. Similarly, election results in highly populated cities have driven home the point that local issues, such as better living conditions, affordable housing, and law and order, tend to determine the outcome.
The BJP appears to be in a better position in Jharkhand and may overcome the anti-incumbency issue. But the real test for the party will begin after the victory. The BJP will have to strive hard to solve people’s problems at the local level, arrive at a consensus while respecting the support base of its rival parties, and lead Jharkhand to wider economic development and greater heights.
The author is a member of the National Executive Committee of the BJP and former editor of Organiser. Views are personal.