As most parties are seeing generational shifts, Lalu could be key to cohesion. If he’s occupied with court cases, it will affect opposition’s challenge to BJP.
In the week gone by, CBI courts delivered two verdicts in cases involving leaders from regional parties.
The timing of these verdicts is crucial, especially as opposition parties are starting to put their houses in order ahead of the 2019 general elections.
The 2G verdict lifted the mood in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and helped it shun the tag of untouchability. But the fodder scam conviction dampened the mood in the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). What’s worse, the latter will severely test the effectiveness of a grand opposition force with the likely exit of Lalu Prasad Yadav as the much-needed, cross-party political glue.
To add to the trouble, the verdict also coincided with the Enforcement Directorate filing a chargesheet in the disproportionate assets case against Lalu’s daughter and Rajya Sabha MP Misa Bharti.
Generational shift
Most regional parties in India are poised for a generational shift. Except the DMK, all these parties have come up in the last quarter century, in the post-Mandal and post-Mandir era.
The transition in the Samajwadi Party is almost complete, after Akhilesh Yadav replaced dad Mulayam. In the DMK, M.K. Stalin is the de facto leader. The Chautalas of Haryana have more or less settled the next-gen question, and so have the Paswans of Bihar. All this is occurring at a time when India’s oldest national party, the Congress, has also passed on the mantle to its scion Rahul Gandhi, who is emitting a new, post-Gujarat glow these days.
Party elders like Sonia Gandhi, Mulayam, O.P. Chautala, and Ram Vilas Paswan have more or less assumed ‘margdarshak’ or mentor roles.
But the RJD’s transition has just about begun, and is still raw. Lalu is now projecting son Tejashwi as his heir apparent. But unlike the gen-next leaders in other parties who have picked their own teams, Tejashwi is still working with Team Lalu. The most popular campaigner in the party continues to be Lalu.
Lalu was the Mandal poster-boy of Bihar, the most popular backward leader after Karpoori Thakur. A strong Muslim, OBC and Dalit support base helped Lalu rule the state without any challenge for almost two decades. But not anymore.
Now, the BJP and Nitish Kumar have successfully divided the OBC and Dalit votes to some extent, and no party can form a government on its own in Bihar. This is when the opposition forces need a charismatic leader like Lalu, not only in Bihar, but in other northern states as well.
However, there are three more cases against Lalu where conviction is possible in the coming few months. This means that he and his party would be busier in ensuring speedy bail proceedings, rather than strategising for the next big election of 2019.
Even if Lalu guides Tejashwi to do things on the ground, his absence would be disabling for the party workers. Lalu knows the trick of sending the right message more than any other leader of his time. Soon after the verdict Saturday, he was quick to mention that he is a ‘backward’, and should get justice from the court.
Lalu is trying to set the stage for Tejashwi and his other children, but they are still too green to lead the party. Also, an ED enquiry is going on against every member of the family. The family needs to deal with internal issues urgently, before it can position itself for the grand political strategy.
Most importantly, Lalu has political capital like no other in reaching out to other opposition parties outside Bihar. He has a direct line with almost all the senior leaders of other parties, and can effectively stitch together alliances to mount a formidable challenge to the BJP.
It is hard to say that Lalu’s days in politics are over. He has a history of comebacks. But at this time, even this historical reputation is under challenge.