There have been momentous strategic developments in 48 hours beginning at 04:10 am IST, 22 June, in the Israel-Iran war. They began with the US jumping into the fray with a stunning display of its strategic air power, targeting three nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Seven B-2 stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators or MOPs, and 24-30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired from submarines. A total of 125 support aircraft from US bases also took part in the synchronised operation.
Iran vowed revenge against the US, but mostly targeted Israel with ballistic missiles. Israel, too, continued with its relentless air attacks, targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure.
Simultaneously, there were hectic backdoor diplomatic negotiations for a ceasefire. Finally, after tacitly allowing Iran to carry out a symbolic air strike on Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar on 24 June, President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire at approximately 03:30 am IST on 25 June. Both Iran and Israel seem to have accepted the ceasefire. Both sides have claimed victory—Israel and the US, for severely damaging Iran’s nuclear weapon programme and degrading its military capability, and Iran, by standing up to its mighty adversaries against all odds. The ceasefire is still fragile, and both Israel and Iran have accused each other of at least one serious violation, however, in the broader context, it holds.
The stark reality is that Iran capitulated, as it no longer had the military capacity or the capability to continue the war. It opted for regime and oil wealth preservation rather than being reduced to penury and going the Afghanistan way. It is too early to predict the terms and conditions of long–term peace, but one thing is certain: Iran, at best, can only hope to salvage its pride and honour.
Have Israel & US achieved their strategic aims?
Prime Minister Netanyahu clearly spelt out the political aim when launching Operation Rising Lion: “Israel will never allow those who call for our annihilation to develop the means (Iran’s nuclear programme) to achieve that goal. Tonight, Israel backs those words with action.”
The military aim was to destroy/degrade Iran’s nuclear weapon programme: uranium enrichment plants, research centres, delivery means, nuclear scientists, and military leadership. And in doing so, also destroy Iran’s response capability—ballistic missiles and drones—for attacking Israel.
Riding on Israel’s initial success, the US’ political aim was to complete the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon programme and then impose peace on its own terms. The military aim was to destroy the underground uranium enrichment plants at Fordow and Natanz, and the enriched uranium storage facility at Isfahan through a single mega air strike. Israel did not have the capability to destroy Fordow, and probably, there was a need to also ensure the destruction of Natanz and Isfahan.
Given the experience of wars in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, the statements regarding regime change were no more than political rhetoric with the hope that the relentless air campaign might bring about an internal uprising.
By all yardsticks, Israel and the US have achieved their political and military aims.
I have relied on damage assessment by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) since it directly impacts Israel’s security. All nuclear facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear programme have been destroyed or severely damaged. “We have set Iran’s nuclear project back by years,” said IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir. This has now been confirmed by Iran. While knowledge cannot be destroyed, 15 top nuclear scientists have also been eliminated.
Iran’s response capability to interfere with the air campaign and target Israel has also been severely degraded. All major air defence systems—80 batteries—were completely destroyed in the first 48 hours, giving Israel complete freedom in Iran’s airspace. Iran’s formidable ballistic missile capability was targeted in terms of launchers, stockpiles, and production factories. At least 250 of the 350 ballistic missile launchers and 1,000 of the 2,500 ballistic missiles were destroyed. Iran was left with 100 launchers and 1,000-1,500 missiles, out of which it fired 550, targeting Israel.
The entire original hierarchy of the armed forces and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) has been killed during the operation, and the military command and control infrastructure destroyed. Israel had the freedom and capability to destroy Iran’s oil wells and refineries. However, this was avoided for fear of Iran striking Arab oil infrastructure to plunge the world into a crisis.
With absolute control of airspace, Israel could continue to launch precision strikes at will and had the capacity to continue indefinitely with US assistance. However, even Iran’s limited ballistic missile strikes were causing unacceptable (by Israel’s standards) civilian casualties. This was the only compulsion for Israel, apart from US pressure, to accept the ceasefire.
In a nutshell, Israel and the US have achieved their political and military aims of the war. Regime change was an unrealistic political aim, but it will remain a long-term goal. What remains is the imposition of peace on their own terms.
Also read: Iran was bombed because it didn’t have nukes—just what K Subrahmanyam warned India about
Capitulation of Iran
Iran’s political aim was simple: to defend itself and its strategic assets, ensure regime survival, and retain its strategic autonomy. Its military aim was to defeat Israel’s air campaign by its integrated air defence and wear it down with counter–missile and drone strikes.
The core of Iran’s deterrence lay in three interlinked capabilities: its clandestine nuclear weapons programme, a vast network of regional proxies—Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, and the erstwhile Syrian regime of Bashar al–Assad—and a large retaliatory ballistic missile and drone force. These were the instruments through which Tehran sought to dominate West Asia and challenge the US-Israel strategic architecture. At the end of the 12–day war, this triad lies shattered.
Iran miserably failed to defend itself against Israel’s air campaign, which was carried out with impunity without a single casualty or aircraft being lost—except one drone. Israel was able to carry out 1,000 sorties of fighter aircraft over 12 days. It should suffice to say that Iran’s only defence was through passive measures—camouflage, concealment, dispersion, and hardened underground structures.
Despite the odds, Iran launched 550 ballistic missiles to target Israel. However, only 10 per cent got through Israel’s defence, with only 31 known impacts on civilian areas and critical infrastructure. Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel during the 12 days of war claimed the lives of 28 people—all but one of them civilians—and wounded over 3,000 people. Iran also launched 1,000 drone attacks, but all drones except one were intercepted. The impact of Iran’s retaliation lay more in the psychological realm than the physical.
There is much speculation about the 400 kg or possibly even more of enriched uranium being salvaged, sufficient to make up to 10 nuclear bombs in the future at secret nuclear installations. My take is that if Iran could not make the bomb in the best of times, it will probably find it much harder to do so now.
Iran’s theocratic regime has survived the war. In this time of crisis, the people rallied in support of the government. The extensive internal security and social control under the IRGC is still in place, and there is no organised opposition to the regime. There are some reports of an internal tussle between the hardliners and moderates. However, at present, the regime is in firm control.
With no defence against Israeli or American air campaigns and only symbolic retaliatory capability left, Iran had no choice but to accept the ceasefire.
Also read: Why 1969 USSR-China conflict has crucial lessons for Iran & Israel
Prognosis
Iran’s theocratic regime has survived, there is no possibility of a direct invasion, and its oil wealth is intact. Its military and nuclear infrastructure has been destroyed or severely degraded. Its erstwhile proxies have been severely degraded and are content with self–preservation. There is little or no scope for direct support from China or Russia.
Iran has no defence of any kind against Israel-US air power, and its spectre will continue to loom large over the country in the future. It requires prolonged peace to rebuild itself to reach even pre–war levels, let alone create additional capabilities to pose a strategic challenge to Israel. Iran has no choice but to come to the negotiating table.
The US and Israel’s endeavour will be to impose absolute terms on Iran. They would seek the closure of all uranium enrichment within Iran, IAEA–monitored safeguards of all nuclear installations, an end to all support to proxies, and limits on the range and quantum of ballistic missiles.
It is difficult to predict the course of the likely peace negotiations. In my view, Iran will endeavour to preserve its pre–war strategic autonomy, but all it can hope for is peace with honour.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)
Regime change will be unavoidable in Iran. Majority of the population is against theocratic rule. Khamenei is in hiding and he is likely to be eliminated by Israel when he comes out, paving way for a democratic non-theocratic rule. Public there may be able to show more fearlessness because the Ayatollah is weakened.
Kuch toh sharm Kar lo General.
In contrast, our air force is made up a 1947-built mosquito and a new India-made, light-weight insect. These two are supposed to deter China and Pakistan. Apparently, the money left after freebies, subsidies, loan waivers, & corruption could buy only the mosquito and & the insect.
It is true that Iran capitulated, but it is the most practical decision. Iran can now focus on development. In fact it should start dialogue with USA so that the economic sanctions can be lifted. It just needs to declare that all its nuclear stock pile is devastated. It also has to forgo sponsoring terrorists in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, etc. and work to bring back its economy to a growth path.