Iran’s aerial attacks on Israel have created a new conflict zone in West Asia, forcing major powers and economic capitals of the world to recalibrate their respective geopolitical and economic balance sheets. The October 2023 terror attack on Israel by Hamas and the retaliatory attacks by Israeli forces signalled a long-drawn period of conflict in the region, which has unsettled the fragile and sporadic peace processes.
So far, Israel has been responding by counter-terror operations and limiting its attacks to Hezbollah and Hamas bases and operators. The country has also targeted refugee camps, mosques and some hospitals in Gaza to flush out terrorists, killing civilians in the process. Its recent attack on Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior officer of the Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran. Zahedi, like Major General Qassem Soleimani who was killed in a US drone attack in Iraq in 2020, was responsible for supporting and facilitating “axis of resistance”, a euphemism for terror outfits and anti-Israel and anti-US political pressure groups including Hamas and Hezbollah.
Considering the blow to its image by losing one of its senior army officers, Tehran had no choice but to mount a “revenge attack” on Israel. Moreover, to limit the potential backlash from the army and manage public perception, the regime required the Supreme Leader, Rahbar-e-Moazzam-e-Iran, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, to authorise the airstrike on Israel.
Having achieved its objectives, Tehran may scale down the revenge attacks and limit it to threatening statements and strong condemnations of Tel Aviv’s offensive attacks. The office of Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, has informed the international press on the sidelines of UN Security Council meeting that “Iran is not looking for the expansion of tension in the region.” Earlier, Iran’s UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani told the UN Assembly that Tehran “had no choice” but to respond, adding that his country does “not seek escalation or war” but will respond to any “threat or aggression”. Meanwhile, as per US officials, Israel attacked Iran with a missile overnight on Friday after weeks of escalating tensions.
Also read: Iran and Israel’s open warfare after decades of shadow war
Victims of global power struggle
Both, Israel and Iran appear to have become victims of collateral damages in the post-Cold War global power struggle involving former foes US and Russia and a new entrant, China. Beijing, which is equally interested in getting a foothold in the highly volatile Middle East, had brokered peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Ebrahim Raisi became the first Iranian President in 20 years to visit China in February 2023, paving the way for a historic peace process between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. The perceived US distancing from Saudi Arabia could have stimulated Beijing to step into the vacuum. Additionally, more than Iran, it is Israel that could become the semiconductor industry base in the event of Taiwan receding into the background due to a conflict situation. Therefore, China had every reason to build new friendships in the Middle East.
Not to be left behind, Russia, which has a long history of building fruitful relations in the Middle East since the days of the Soviet Union, shored up its influence in the region by supporting regimes in local conflicts such as Libya and Syria. Its support to the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2015 and the setting up of permanent military bases in Tartus and Khmeimin helped the Syrian military to gain control over its territories in the northeast after the US withdrew from the country in 2019. Russia also held joint naval exercises with Egypt, its Soviet-era partner.
Iran played a seminal role in enhancing Russia’s air warfare and missile capabilities. The supply of lethal drones by Iran to Russia in August 2022 caught the attention of the international strategic community, raising concerns about the possibilities of another arms race and economic benefits to Iran through oil-defense deals. By December 2022, Iran had reportedly supplied more than 1,700 combat-enabled drones capable of self-destructive bombings, surveillance and intelligence gathering. Tehran and Moscow had reportedly developed plans to produce some 6,000 Iranian model drones at an unnamed military facility in Russia.
There is a reason to believe that many of these drones were used against Israel last week during the ‘revenge attack’. The Kremlin might be concerned about the gap in its supplies if the Iran-Israel air war continues. Worse, Israel could destroy Iran’s drone facilities and cripple its production, which is the last thing that Russia would want to happen. The Russia-Ukraine conflict seriously limits the Kremlin’s capabilities to intervene in conflicts in the Middle East and expand its influence to counter that of the West as well as China.
India has maintained a steady and balanced relationship with both Tehran and Tel Aviv without compromising its stance on issues that New Delhi considers crucial for maintaining peace and contributing to global disarmament. While supporting Israel’s right to punish perpetrators of terror, India supports the Palestinian cause and wants a peaceful negotiated settlement to the issue. As for Iran, in addition to cultural ties, India strongly advocates the country’s return to democracy.
Also read: Iran’s response to Israel’s attack is a turning point in history. Will Netanyahu fold?
CIA, Iran and Israel
The Iran-Israel animosity is not new and has been there for more than four decades now. It started when the 1979 Islamic Revolution spearheaded by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ended the 26-year rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.
Incidentally, despite the animosity between the great civilisational entities, Iran was the second Muslim-majority country to recognise Israel as a sovereign state, following Turkey. The 1953 coup d’état, reinstalled Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as the Shah of Iran who profusely thanked the plotters of the coup saying, “I owe the throne to God, my nation, my army, and you (Kermit Roosevelt, an officer from the CIA).” “What we have done was for our general and common interests, and the result is the best reward,” the CIA agent is reported to have replied.
The US no longer enjoys the ‘rewards’ of regime change in Iran brought about by the CIA 70 years ago, and at best, it could refrain from attempting another regime change in Tehran. The region needs time to go back to the drawing board and redefine bilateral engagements without any outside interference.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
It is also not good news for India. A region of economic significance for India, all of which gets endangered if war breaks out.