Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri’s meeting with Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai earlier this month confirmed New Delhi’s growing ties with the Taliban. This engagement is a direct result of covert diplomatic efforts launched in December 2021, during which India’s Research and Analysis Wing regularly sent intelligence officers to Kabul to establish communication channels.
In June 2022, India reopened its Kabul mission as a technical office focused on humanitarian aid. Coordination, however, remained limited. The Afghan Embassy in New Delhi and the World Food Programme coordinated the transport of 50,000 metric tonnes of wheat from India through Pakistan to assist those in need.
Since the embassy restarted operations in Kabul, Indian officials have regularly visited the city. There have been weekly flights for diplomats between Kabul and New Delhi. However, many Afghans perceive little benefit from this mission. While India has enhanced interactions with the Taliban, Pakistan’s close relationships with important Taliban leaders overshadow its initiatives. India continues to invest in these relationships despite significant ideological and political divides.
Shifting geopolitical landscape
The fall of Kabul in August 2021 marked a significant turning point for Afghanistan, causing major geopolitical shifts. Nearly 40 million Afghans faced Taliban rule, characterised by oppression, poverty, and isolation. For India, Afghanistan’s collapse posed a moral dilemma and a geostrategic challenge.
New Delhi’s historical ties with Kabul, including the 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement, positioned it as a key ally to the Afghan people. However, after the Taliban’s return, India has taken a cautious “wait-and-watch” stance. The country navigates a delicate balance: managing domestic political constraints – especially from its Right-wing voter base – while upholding democratic values and pursuing regional ambitions. Consequently, India prioritises realpolitik to protect its interests and compete against rivals such as Pakistan and China.
The Taliban currently prioritises economic engagement with India over political matters. Following the meeting in Dubai, the Taliban’s acting foreign minister highlighted the need to enhance trade relations with India considering Afghanistan’s deep economic isolation. With $9.5 billion in Afghan assets frozen by the United States, and Afghanistan’s reliance on Western aid to stabilise its currency, trade with India reveals substantial untapped potential. For the Taliban, drawing in new investments is vital for consolidating its power. Although upcoming Chinese investments may gain more attention, the Taliban recognises India’s crucial role in generating economic opportunities that can meet Afghanistan’s immediate needs while fostering long-term stability.
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Humanitarian crisis
Afghanistan faces a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 23 million people requiring assistance and 90 per cent living in poverty. The Taliban’s oppressive policies, including more than 100 edicts, restrict personal freedoms, affecting 1.4 million school-going girls and pushing many women out of work. Food insecurity looms, with nearly half of the children under five experiencing stunted growth due to malnutrition.
India has historically supported Afghanistan through scholarships and medical care. However, this assistance ceased following the Taliban’s return to power. Over 2,500 Afghan students faced challenges enrolling in Indian universities due to visa issues, while essential humanitarian efforts failed to meet the needs of the Afghan population. Although India maintains a mission in Kabul, its primary goal of providing relief is not being effectively felt by those in need.
Over 1.6 million Afghans fled their country after the withdrawal of American troops, with 190,000 of them resettled in the US. In comparison, India has not accommodated a significant number of vulnerable Afghans. India’s visa issuance for Afghans remains strict. Afghanistan’s humanitarian needs require a moral response. India should reinstate scholarships, create safe entry for students and professionals, and prioritise aid for the needy.
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Counter regional threats
Insecurity in Afghanistan significantly impacts the lives of its citizens and creates challenges for the entire region. Terror groups such as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are attempting to extend their influence in the country, which poses serious threats to India’s security and overall regional stability.
The Taliban has struggled to prevent high-profile attacks by ISKP, including assaults on the Minister of Refugees and Repatriation, the Governor of Balkh, and various civilian targets. This situation underscores the fragile nature of security in Afghanistan. For India, the resurgence of groups like the LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Kashmir highlights the danger of cross-border terrorism, which could be exacerbated by the prevailing instability in Afghanistan.
Addressing security challenges needs more than transactional diplomacy. While India’s ties with the Taliban may reduce immediate risks, lasting regional security demands a political solution. Afghanistan’s history shows that inclusive governance is vital for sustainable peace. A unified political framework with diverse stakeholders, including civil society, women, and minorities, is key to stabilising the country and minimising extremism.
India must expand its role beyond counterterrorism. By collaborating with Western allies, and partners like Iran and the Central Asian and Gulf nations, New Delhi can foster a political settlement in Afghanistan. Leveraging the Doha Agreement and backing Afghan platforms like the Loya Jirga will result in a more representative government.
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Support ‘Loya Jirga’
Afghanistan’s deep-rooted challenges demand Afghan-led solutions, and history shows that sustainable progress is possible when the country’s diverse stakeholders come together. The Loya Jirga is a traditional grand assembly representing the entire nation of Afghanistan. It has a strong history of independence, fairness, and respect for the aspirations of its people.
The Loya Jirga has long been a cornerstone of Afghan political culture, serving as a platform for inclusive dialogue and consensus-building. By reviving this tradition, supported by regional powers, the international community will bridge the entrenched divide between the Taliban and the Afghan people.
By endorsing and actively supporting a Loya Jirga, India would reaffirm its commitment to fostering stability and inclusivity in Afghanistan. This assembly could bring together political leaders, civil society, women, and youth to draft a new social contract that addresses the nation’s pressing challenges while safeguarding the rights of marginalised communities.
The United Nations could establish a framework for discussions and monitor adherence to agreements. This approach supports India’s legacy of democracy and aims to promote regional stability. By backing an Afghan-led solution, India will counter extremism and reaffirm its role as a responsible regional leader.
Also read: Why Pakistan accuses Taliban of doing what it has been doing to India — abetting terrorism
Balance is key
The crisis in Afghanistan is not just political; it’s also a humanitarian challenge that is testing India’s leadership. India’s response to Afghan women and vulnerable groups has been inadequate. Thousands are stranded without visas or support, eroding trust in a once hopeful country. India’s limited engagement seems like a retreat from its historical role. Additionally, regional economic projects such as the Chabahar Port and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline hold potential, but their full success relies on Afghanistan’s long-term stability.
By reinstating scholarships, simplifying visa processes, and backing initiatives like the Loya Jirga, India can demonstrate a true commitment to compassion. India must focus on key governance and human rights reforms in Afghanistan. Collaborating with countries in the region and international organisations can help stabilise Afghanistan, ensuring all voices are heard and respected. At this crucial time, India can align its actions with its principles, creating a legacy of hope, resilience, and partnership
Farid Mamundzay is the former ambassador of Afghanistan to India. His X handle is @FMamundzay. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)