As Alice would say in the old Wonderland fable, things are getting ‘curiouser and curiouser’ in our country. As Alice grew taller and shorter in turn, we have presently one of the two major national parties growing taller and taller, while the older, but not necessarily wiser party, seems to be getting shorter and shorter. And then we have an unknown dark energy ‘turncoats’, which has no fixed location, wandering at will from point to point, seeking the richest pasture. There are opposition parties, threatening to coalesce among themselves, but never actually coming together. Then, there are forces, the gravitational force and the repulsive force, keeping Indian democracy in a constant churn.
Indian democracy is unique. We do not hear of hard-boiled Republicans and Democrats, or Conservatives and Labour, crossing floors with such happy alacrity, as in India. Not only is there instability, there is also fluidity. Elections and the views expressed by the people seem to matter little. Wherever the gravitational force is stronger, thither will go our happy-go-lucky politicians, fuelled by large dollops of hard cash, laid out by the richest and the most powerful. These are well calculated investments, and returns are much higher than in any honest industry. Thus, we reach a situation in which 60 per cent of our nation’s wealth is owned by the top 5 per cent, while the bottom 50 per cent owns just 3 per cent, as a recent Oxfam study shows. Oxfam, of course, is a bad name now; they are under threat from the Foreign Contributions (Regulation) Act.
The giant company
Coming to the BJP, the largest party in the world as it is said to be. Its most significant aspect is its insatiable appetite. Having the largest mass, it has also the strongest gravitational force, which is quite eclectic in its operation. Those who have attacked the party and its ideology in the past with great vigour are welcome to turn around and become admiring members of the party. Indeed, it sometimes seems to me that they prefer erstwhile staunch enemies over others who have been more nuanced to the party and its policies. Each new acquisition is treated with a burst of joy. These can be parties or individuals. All are welcome and the more you and your past associates have attacked us (read BJP), the more welcome you are. If you don’t join us, we will set our hounds on you. As the Queen in Alice in Wonderland would say, “Off with their heads!”
There seems little concern that the absorption of disparate elements can lead to a situation in which the core cannot hold the mass. The expectation is that Modi, as the unconquerable core, will keep the mass together. To me, it looks like a very short-term approach. Even the sun eventually dies when thermonuclear fusion comes to an end as hydrogen resources are consumed. There are other problems. When heterogeneous elements come together, they can displace true believers, who would begin to lose their fervour and, in time, drift away, disillusioned, despondent, angry. The differences of approach we see between the parent RSS and the offspring BJP are probably early signs of discord.
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One mistake and another
What then of the other major national party, the Congress? Throughout the Independence struggle and at least for the first decade after Independence, the party’s leading characteristic was its ability to absorb diverse streams of opinion and to arrive at an acceptable consensus. Inner party democracy thrived and, as a consequence, a mechanism was available to resolve differences. Indeed, Nehru himself wrote an anonymous published piece in which he highlighted the dangers of giving too much power to himself. Over the last five decades, the democratic element has vanished and a High Command culture run by a small group of people at Delhi has taken its place. The party, which, in its early days, held its core meetings all over the country — in cities as well as in small towns — lost its countryside moorings.
Somehow, the party seems to have yet not realised that it is now no stronger than many other opposition parties and that, if they really want a role in governance, they need to find allies and they cannot assume that they, or one of them, would automatically assume leadership of the opposition. The long walk no doubt strengthened Rahul’s image but incessant talk about Modi, Adani and Savarkar will not add value to the Congress. The earlier they realise that they are not equally strong everywhere and that they have to yield ground to strong regional parties in their strongholds, the better their chances of a resurgence. And also accept that a serious challenge to Modi can be mounted only if a national leader, Hindi speaking and with long experience in politics and governance, can be found to lead the opposition.
Regional parties have become very strong in their respective states. Some, like AAP, TMC and BRS have begun to spread their wings. They too need to understand that the Congress is strong in pockets and they have to carry the latter with them to pose any real challenge. A front that excludes both the BJP and the Congress will not make headway. There is barely a year left for the General Elections and there is no time for either the Congress or regional parties to prevaricate any longer. If they are serious, a coordination mechanism has to be set up at once.
As it is, Modi and the BJP are sitting on velvet. They have complete sway over the largest state, UP, are generally dominant in the Indo-Gangetic belt, Gujarat, Maharashtra, the Northeast. In other states, they can expect to win, in my opinion, 20-30 per cent of the seats overall, which should mean they would romp home easily at the Centre. However, our experience has been that the electorate votes differently in the states where local factors and local leadership have a stronger role to play.
Thus, we could have, in time, a situation in which the BJP has an impregnable majority at the Centre while the majority of states have opposition governments. Under such circumstances, we could see greater confrontation between the states and the Centre, further exacerbation of the “off with their heads” and “double engine” culture, more threats to federalism, democracy and the Constitution. Indeed, a day may come, when Governors, who are already flexing their muscles in different states, may be given by law the same powers as the LG of Delhi.
In George Orwell’s Animal Farm, the animals, in their experiment with democracy, “had come to a time when no one dare speak his mind, when fierce, growling dogs roamed everywhere, where you had to watch your comrades torn to pieces after confessing to shocking crimes.” Not unfamiliar in India. Let us not regress in history.
K.M. Chandrasekhar is former Cabinet Secretary. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)