A few years ago, an unnamed foreign minister told me that there are no catholic marriages among countries anymore – the world has become transactional. And he was right, India is no longer married to anyone, it is not choosing any sides, it is choosing itself.
With the Modi-Putin embrace at close heels of the Modi-Biden hug, the stark reality of opposites has found a new normal. India is choosing to be friends with its friends’ enemies. The newly expanded BRICS displays how the US world leadership is being challenged, as powerful blocs outside its control are getting stronger, sometimes resolving long–standing issues with unusual swiftness – a case in point is India and China restoring patrolling rights along the Line of Actual Control after the 2020 military standoff, ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia.
In this polarised world, where two sides are cementing their stances and alliances, India is in an enviable, but also unprecedented position. For the first time since the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, we are reverting to a world of two blocs – much like what NATO and the Warsaw Pact did in the last century. But can India be part of two rival blocs – at the same time?
If you listen to External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, it’s a resounding ‘yes’. In fact, to quote him, “India can walk and chew gum at the same time.” When Jaishankar walks into a room now, you can tell he’s coveted. There is relaxed ease, a well-rehearsed playbook, and a glib passive-aggressive answer ready for the most uncomfortable questions.
The swagger was evident when I saw him speak at New York’s Asia Society, but also apparent in the way India controlled its own agenda during the 79th UN General Assembly session last month – from PM Narendra Modi addressing NRI audiences in Long Island to the ease in the Quad bonhomie and the lack of pandering to the UN microphone. This is not an India that is trying too hard.
This was not the case when I covered India’s foreign briefings in Washington DC in earlier years. The seriousness that had previously dominated Indian bureaucracy, accompanied by dry handouts and overly earnest, some would say almost obsequious, “America is being nice to us” messaging, is now replaced with a confidence that comes from power, but also from a sudden escalation of your estimated net worth.
Plenty of reasons have been given for the new confidence – the obvious being India’s economic growth rate and the Indian consumer opportunity. But that was still the case a few years ago as well. So, what has really changed?
Also read: India keeps making the same foreign policy mistakes. World doesn’t think we’re being moral
‘Don’t bet against America’
As Warren Buffet famously said, “Never bet against America.”
If you look back at the last 75 years, one primary factor has driven the global geopolitical order and decided the fates of nations. The countries that have backed the US against its primary adversary have benefited dramatically, both economically and geopolitically.
In the post-World War II era, the US has always had a major foe that it has rallied its global weight against – whether it was the Nazis in the 1940s, the Soviets in the 1950s to 1980s, or the Jihadists in the 2000s. The countries that helped the US against these forces – from Western Europe to even Pakistan – benefitted tremendously during those periods.
All three times, India was nowhere in the game. America chooses its adversary for a reasonably long period. Now it has chosen China, in a standoff where confrontation and capitulation are both off the table. And the US is aggressively wooing India to be on its side. Finally, for the first time in the modern era, India is placed on the right side of the geopolitical contest.
India’s four big decisions
India’s independent foreign policy is also playing to its benefit, at least for now.
Since Independence, three seminal decisions have defined India’s relevance on the world stage. Based on your political stance, these might not necessarily be right or wrong, but they are pivotal regardless. First was Jawaharlal Nehru’s fascination with Fabian socialism, which led to the alignment with the Soviets and the creation of the Non-Aligned Movement. Second was Indira Gandhi staring down US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and US President Richard Nixon, and going all in during the 1971 Bangladesh War. The third was Atal Bihari Vajpayee defying Western sanctions and giving the green signal to nuclear tests.
Now there is a fourth. Modi’s decision to purchase Russian oil despite severe Western pressure to bring a quick end to the Ukraine war. Time will tell whether this choosing of its own self–interest over another country’s ideology will be to its long-term advantage, but for now, the playbook reads well.
Also read: India’s national interest demands better China ties. Don’t let West influence it
How long can India hedge?
India has aligned economically with the US, and militarily with Russia, but politically it is walking the tightrope. India is playing its foreign policy like a poker player, and many would argue a very good one. But it could be forced to show its hand sooner than later.
If a US debt crisis occurs, a scenario that Xi Jinping is hoping for, where debt markets force the government’s hand that begins the end of dollar dominance, will India choose the BRICS’ newly proposed currency alternative?
On the other hand, if China chokes off the world’s technology food chain by encircling Taiwan, how big a role will India play in the Quad’s rescue efforts?
In this new world with no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, how long will India be able to keep its many friends despite ideological divorces? Whom India chooses in crucial moments will say more about its real feelings than membership blocs. It might not be a catholic marriage, but it will not be short of a long-term commitment. And if India does manage to remain neutral, it will achieve what no country has successfully done in the post-World War II era.
Namrata Brar is an Indian-American journalist, investigative reporter, and news anchor. She is the former US bureau chief for NDTV. She tweets @namratabrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)