In Gujarat, it was Brand Modi that saved the day for the BJP. But the Modi narrative has taken a beating over the last few months. Perhaps it’s losing some of its magic.
The broad consensus on Karnataka among pundits and pollsters seems to be that the Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party on 15 May. Depending on the numbers, it is widely expected that the BJP and the JD(S) could form a coalition government despite the Congress emerging as the number one party.
As Prime Minister Modi has begun his campaign in the state, can he turn around that situation and give the BJP a huge surge? Can the BJP emerge as at least the single largest party?
The Karnataka results will, willy-nilly, be seen as an indicator of the strength of Brand Modi for several reasons.
Brahmastra?
Firstly, unlike many other state elections, Modi has begun his campaign here rather late, less than two weeks before the polls. In all, he will still be addressing 21 rallies in a state with 30 districts. If the BJP gets fewer seats than the Congress, people will wonder if Brand Modi has weakened.
In Gujarat, it was Brand Modi that was said to have saved the day for the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, it was Brand Modi that was given the credit for making the party win over three-fourths of the seats, almost retaining the 2014 vote share. It is Brand Modi that the party’s general, Amit Shah, has used to reap rich electoral rewards. Narendra Modi is the BJP’s brahmastra, its trump card.
As the BJP campaign in Karnataka failed to create the sense that it was going to defeat the Congress, the party played the trump card. But if that doesn’t make a difference, it is natural to wonder if the brahmastra has become weaker.
Congress-mukt Bharat?
Secondly, if the BJP gets fewer seats than the Congress in Karnataka, it would be the first time since 2014 that the Congress defeats the BJP in a direct contest. The Congress won Punjab but there wasn’t a direct contest with the BJP there. The Congress did emerge as the single largest party in Goa but that’s a small state. Mostly, it is only regional players who have shown the ability to withstand the BJP election machine, such as Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal.
The Congress is seen as a party in no shape to be able to defeat the BJP. “Only regional parties and their leaders can stop the BJP,” Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav said recently. A Congress victory in Karnataka could change that sense and put the party back in the game, thereby denting Brand Modi’s perception of invincibility in the run-up to 2019.
The Congress has a strong leader in Karnataka. So, Brand Modi’s image as a bulldozer of the Congress party and his effort to make India Congress-free face a difficult test.
BJP-mukt south India?
Thirdly, Karnataka is crucial for the BJP as it is the party’s gateway to south India. It is the only state in the south where the BJP has been able to form a government in the past. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 17 of the state’s 28 seats. In Telangana, only one of 17; in Andhra Pradesh, two of 25. It won none of Kerala’s 20 seats and Tamil Nadu’s 39.
Since the BJP won saturation-level seats in the Hindi heartland, it can only lose some of those. In 2019, the Congress will pick up at least a few seats in states like Gujarat and Rajasthan, where it had won zero in 2014. This makes it important for the BJP to expand its footprint to other areas, as it has done successfully in the northeast.
As Modi and Shah speak to Karnataka voters through translators, a defeat in the state will damage Brand Modi’s image as a pan-India phenomenon.
The Modi narrative
Lastly, the Modi narrative has taken a beating over the last few months, with bypoll losses as well as the Nirav Modi scam, unemployment, farm distress, rape stories and whatnot. At a time like this, if the BJP loses Karnataka, it will only add to the perception that Brand Modi is not what it was in 2014; perhaps it’s losing some of its magic.