As the United States inches closer to its presidential election, high-level diplomatic exchanges between Chinese and American officials have intensified. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing from 27 to 29 August for a new round of strategic talks underscores this trend. Sullivan’s trip, his first to China, builds on previous engagements with Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, in Vienna, Malta, and Bangkok. It highlights ongoing efforts to keep communication channels open and address rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Sullivan’s visit has attracted notable attention in China, with hashtags such as #US President’s National Security Advisor Sullivan visits China and #Sullivan arrives in Beijing/China trending on Weibo. This level of interest seems to have surpassed what was seen during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China in April.
Why Biden’s potential China visit is significant
As US President Joe Biden prepares to leave office, Sullivan’s meeting with Wang Yi takes on added significance – especially because Biden never visited China during his tenure. There is speculation in the country that Sullivan’s Beijing trip could pave the way for Biden’s first trip to China. However, some commentators remain doubtful, suggesting that,while a potential pre-war scenario seems more plausible, the outgoing president’s visit to China remains unlikely.
Should Biden depart the White House without making this trip, he will join Ronald Reagan as one of the only two presidents who didn’t set foot in China during their tenures.
In this context, Sullivan’s visit is being seen as a vital substitute. Sun Xiejing, Deputy Dean and Associate Professor at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, refers to Sullivan as the architect of the Biden administration’s China policy. Sun observes a significant shift in the US strategic outlook on China, with senior officials now advocating for constructive engagement even amid competition.
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A broad, complex strategy
The shift from competition and confrontation to seeking constructive engagement reflects a broader strategy to ensure continuity and stability in China-US relations.
Several factors drive this transition. First, much of the Chinese strategic community and media is viewing the visit as an effort to solidify the political legacy of the current US administration, ensuring that its China policy becomes firmly established and more likely to be inherited and maintained by the next administration. This continuity is being seen as crucial for maintaining stable foreign relations. Second, the Biden administration aims to highlight and showcase its foreign policy achievements.
Gao Fei, Vice President of China Foreign Affairs University, notes that the general election is currently the biggest political challenge for the US. In this context, Washington is eager to stabilise any factors that might influence the polls – which includes its relations with Beijing.
Gao asserted that demonstrating the ability to manage international relations effectively, including maintaining stability with China, signals to the outside world that the US administration can competently handle major power relations and uphold international stability.
Many on Weibo are speculating that Sullivan’s trip may be more about pursuing US interests than improving US-China relations. First, his visit might be aimed at influencing China’s stance toward Russia. Second, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vying for the presidency, Sullivan is working to bolster relations with Beijing. He also wants to tap into the Chinese-American investor base, and secure their votes and donations by leveraging the “Chinese card.”
There is, however, broad consensus that ongoing dialogue will help minimise tensions and forge mutual understanding. Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies and Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, suggests that the focus of the talks is not necessarily to produce immediate results. It is to maintain communication and address key issues like the Taiwan question.
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The positive spin on Sullivan
State-owned English language media houses such as The Global Times, continue to emphasise critical rhetoric against the US. However, the discourse in Mandarin regarding Sullivan’s visit and China-US relations is relatively positive.
Much of the scholarly discussion and media discourse affirms that the dialogue mechanism between the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs in China and the US NSA could become a crucial link in the countries’ relations.
Many commentators view it as a potential catalyst for initiating dialogue, arranging a probable meeting between the heads of state of China and the US, and advancing efforts to stabilise bilateral relations. With several assuming that the Democrats might sweep the November elections, there is considerable anticipation that Sullivan’s visit could help set the stage for the next administration’s China policy.
Despite the positive tone surrounding the visit, there is recognition that China-US competition is likely to continue, regardless of Sullivan’s efforts.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)