After a seven-year hiatus, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to China, commanding the spotlight at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The visit reverberated well beyond India and China, drawing attention across the region and the wider world.
Coming in the shadow of Donald Trump’s tariff war on India, Modi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping carried both symbolic and strategic weight.
While the visit was hailed in some quarters as a diplomatic success, and even a subtle rebuke to Trump, much of the Chinese strategic community is treating it with cautious optimism, weighing what real outcomes might follow from this high-profile visit.
Elephant-Dragon tango in Chinese discourse
Much of the initial response has been upbeat. Jin Canrong, vice dean at Renmin University’s School of International Relations, argued in a video posted on Weibo that Trump’s humiliation of India has ironically paved the way for closer China-India ties. Victor Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization, echoed this sentiment on Weibo: “The improvement of Sino-Indian relations is in the fundamental interests of both countries, but it has to be said that Trump has made meritorious contributions this time.”
Lin Minwang, professor and vice dean at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, noted that Modi’s special visit to Tianjin reflects the positive momentum in China–India relations. Echoing this view, Zhang Shujian, associate researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies, China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, remarked that Modi’s in-person participation this year at the SCO summit sends a clearer signal of New Delhi’s intent to improve ties with Beijing.
Others linked Modi’s presence at the SCO with broader regional possibilities. Zhou Rong, an international affairs commentator, suggested that his visit could help institutionalise and expand the SCO’s role, potentially paving the way for a China–Russia–India trilateral summit.
Wang Se, associate researcher at the China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, described Modi’s visit as serving a dual purpose: both an “icebreaker” and a “compass.” While it has not fully repaired the damage from recent border clashes, it has, in Wang’s words, “guided the two nations to re-engage on the broad road for the dragon and elephant dancing together.”
Xie Chao, associate researcher at the Center for South Asian Studies, Fudan University, pointed to India’s growing awareness of a paradox: the harder it confronts China, the more dependent it becomes. He identified four drivers of India’s apparent recalibration: economic needs, dissatisfaction with US tariff policies, Washington’s tendency to conflate India and Pakistan, and New Delhi’s doubts about America’s long-term reliability. Writing in People’s Daily, Xie cautioned that by adhering to a US-centric foreign policy, India risks limiting its strategic options. He argued that New Delhi must move beyond short-term manoeuvring and acknowledge that cooperation with China could be mutually beneficial. If sustained, such rapprochement has the potential to reshape the Asian order, reducing dependence on US leadership and offering the Global South an alternative path.
Public opinion online has also been relatively favourable. A Weibo hashtag, “After Rejecting Trump’s Calls Four Times, Modi Turns to China and Japan”, drew over 22 million views. A post under it criticised India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar for aligning too closely with Washington at the cost of Chinese economic opportunities, while presenting China and Japan as pragmatic alternatives better suited to India’s market needs.
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The case for caution
Still, optimism is tempered. Yao Yuanmei , director of South Asia Study Center, East China Normal University, described Modi’s visit as “special”, marking a potential thaw in ties, but warned that the durability of such warmth is uncertain as Modi’s decision to stop in Japan before China and to avoid Chinese military parades underscored sensitivities rooted in historical memory.
Another analysis emphasised the deliberate sequencing of Modi’s trip: first Japan, with commitments to defence cooperation and a rare-earth supply chain; then China, to push forward economic engagement. Far from contradictory, this was cast as a “Jedi counterattack”, India’s calculated balancing act under pressure from US tariffs.
Chinese commentary is also framing India’s foreign policy as a strategy of “multilateral balance”: partnering with the US on markets, technology, and security; relying on Russia for energy and defence; deepening cooperation with Japan on finance and supply chains; and pursuing trade and investment with China. This layered approach, commentators note, constrains Modi from indulging in grand symbolic gestures in Tianjin, pushing him instead toward pragmatic outcomes.
Chen Jing from the Fengyun Society added that Modi has cultivated a “Vishwaguru” persona through assertive diplomacy and global visibility. Yet India’s standoffs with China along the Line of Actual Control, selective exclusion of China from regional initiatives, and alignment with the US are viewed as provocative in Beijing. Balancing between economic cooperation with China and strategic partnerships with the US and its allies may enhance India’s global reach, but risks overextension.
One viral Weibo post read: “China helped Pakistan shoot down India’s fighter jet, relations froze for years, and now the Indian Prime Minister personally comes to talk about it.”
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Between pragmatism and restraint
In Chinese discourse, Modi’s Tianjin visit is largely interpreted through the prism of Trump’s tariffs and India’s tentative outreach to China. Yet the limits of cooperation remain evident. India’s parallel engagement with Japan and the Philippines serves as a reminder in Beijing that New Delhi’s strategic autonomy and multialignment are not mere slogans but guiding principles.
Interestingly, while Modi’s Japan visit received little attention elsewhere, Chinese media and analysts highlighted it as an essential piece of the puzzle. For them, India’s balancing act, sometimes overlooked in the West, is central to understanding the prospects of India–China relations.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)