The Quad is here to stay!” This assertion has been repeatedly articulated by officials from the grouping’s four member countries: Australia, Japan, India, and the US. Outgoing US President Joe Biden underscored this sentiment during the fourth in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit in Wilmington on 21 September. He affirmed that the Quad will persist beyond the forthcoming US elections in November.
The Quad is increasingly analysed in Chinese academic and policy discussions, with emphasis on the US as the principal driving force and China as the grouping’s primary target.
The perception of the Quad as primarily an anti-China coalition is deeply entrenched in China. This is bolstered by the belief that the US seeks to solidify alliances to counterbalance China’s growing influence. This perspective reinforces the view that Beijing is a victim of the US-dominated global economic system. For instance, Ran Jijun, professor in American studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, criticised the US for framing its relations with China through a lens of great power competition, reflecting “Cold War thinking”.
Quad as a US tool against China
Public opinion on Chinese social media has been significantly influenced by Biden’s hot mic moment, in which he stated, “China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region. It is true in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, South Asia, and the Taiwan Straits.” This prompted hashtags like #BidenForgetsToTurnOffTheMicrophone and #BidenSaidChinaIsAggressiveAtTheQuadSummit on China’s microblogging website, Weibo.
Analysts like Xiang Haoyu from the China Institute of International Studies argue that Biden’s emphasis on the close personal relationship among Quad leaders reflects a desire to leave a political legacy. Conversely, Lu Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressed scepticism about the future direction of the grouping. Li Haidong, a professor of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University, contends that the Quad Leaders’ Summit serves as a strategic tool for the US to rally its allies against China, fundamentally advancing Washington’s own strategic interests.
Ding Duo, deputy director at the Research Center for Ocean Law and Policy, National Institute for South China Sea Studies, suggests that the exaggerated China threat theory stems from the US’ concerns about losing maritime hegemony in the Western Pacific. Analysts argue the US perpetuates the China threat narrative through the Quad, with some even calling it the ‘Asian NATO’, which aims to forge anti-China coalitions using alliances like NATO and the G7. Many in the Chinese strategic community continue to refer to the Quad by its former name, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, underscoring its perceived focus on China and suggesting that its security component remains strong.
Chinese commentators have closely scrutinised the dynamics within the Quad. A Weibo post by Yang Sheng, a Global Times reporter, highlighted perceived inequalities, noting that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sat with the leaders at the Quad Leaders’ Summit while the three foreign ministers were positioned behind them. Another post contrasted the Quad with China-led groupings, such as the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, emphasising that cooperation typically takes precedence over countering any one country for Beijing.
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Consensus on the Quad
Many Chinese commentators predict that following the November US elections, the Quad may lose relevance and progress could stagnate, as it has yet to address substantive issues. With President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida preparing to step down, and Australia approaching a general election next year, the future viability of the Quad remains uncertain. Additionally, India’s position is complicated by its differences with the US, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, not everyone believes the Quad will witness slow progress. Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at Liaoning University, argues that recent joint maritime exercises—fabricated as efforts to uphold a rules-based international order—not only threaten regional stability but also signify a refinement in maritime security cooperation, potentially leading to more frequent interventions in regional disputes such as in the South China Sea. Lin Minwang, Assistant Dean at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, is of the view that joint coast guard patrol operations among the Quad members are just the beginning of deeper cooperation among the four countries, which is expected to become more serious in the future.
There is a consensus in the Chinese strategic community that despite the emphasis on cooperative development, the Quad’s core nature is perceived as anti-China and a threat to regional stability. Analysis within Chinese media, social media, and academic circles predominantly highlights the US’ leadership role within the Quad, often neglecting the group’s articulated objectives and other countries’ concerns and interests. While media and social media discussions in China may identify weaknesses in the Quad, the grouping continues to remain a major concern for Beijing, with the consolidation of partnerships among Quad countries viewed as unfavourable to its long-term interests.
Sana Hashmi is fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)