On 17 June 2024, a Filipino sailor sustained serious injuries when his vessel was rammed by the Chinese Coast Guard during a resupply mission to troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal, now a critical flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific. This underscores the escalating military tensions between China and the Philippines. Such confrontations are becoming more frequent, highlighting China’s heightened focus on the South China Sea.
Experts increasingly suggest that the South China Sea, rather than Taiwan, may become the next major hotspot involving Beijing. Recent incidents provide compelling evidence of how these standoffs could rapidly escalate into full-scale conflicts.
The Philippines accused China of “intentional high-speed ramming” while the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that Philippine vessels illegally intruded into the waters around Ren’ai Jiao (the Chinese name for Second Thomas Shoal). Lin Jian, an MFA spokesperson, characterised the resupply mission as part of the Philippines’ ongoing efforts to supply construction materials, weapons, and equipment. Interestingly, China is framing the Philippines as provocative, accusing them of actions similar to its own decade-long strategy in the South China Sea—constructing artificial islands and militarising the disputed sea.
Perception of Philippines
Recent tensions and rhetoric between China and the Philippines extend beyond governmental and military spheres, encompassing a broader narrative warfare playing out in Chinese social media platforms. Discussions over South China Sea disputes are being overshadowed by debates surrounding the killings of two Chinese citizens in the Philippines, painting a picture of the country as plagued by a high crime rate and unsafe conditions for Chinese nationals. Li Kaisheng, Vice-President of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS), attributes these public security issues, including kidnapping cases, to systemic corruption and incompetence within local governance. On platforms like Weibo, a hashtag translating to ‘The kidnapping of Chinese nationals in the Philippines has evolved into a black market industry’ is trending, framing incidents of kidnapping and extortion involving Chinese citizens as part of a burgeoning illicit industry, often implicating local law enforcement.
Chinese search engines and social media platforms are abuzz with articles and commentaries highlighting the increasing unemployment rate and economic downturnin the Philippines. Discourse like this primarily aims to illustrate that the Philippines, which confronts China in the South China Sea, lacks standing against Beijing and may be overestimating its influence. Given that much of the commentary is in Mandarin, the widespread discussion on Philippine domestic politics, safety issues, and economic conditions also serves to influence the domestic audience.
Many within China’s strategic community place the blame squarely on the Philippines. Zhou Shixin, director of the the SIIS’ Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, argues that Philippine actions, particularly involving the United States in regional conflicts, provoke China, undermining ASEAN unity and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Ding Duo,associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, says that the actions taken by the Philippines not only constitute political and legal provocations against China’s ‘legitimate rights and interests’ in the South China Sea but also complicate and hinder the resolution of relevant disputes in the region. These perspectives closely align with the official Chinese government position. The Chinese MFA has urged the ASEAN, including the Philippines, to uphold the non-binding DOC framework for the resolution of the dispute and opt for a bilateral approach to the dispute.
The US influence on the Philippines regarding the South China Sea issue is a matter of considerable discussion in China. The Chinese MFA accused the US of destabilising the region by supporting the Philippines. It is perceived that the US is leveraging the Philippines to undermine China’s regional influence. A commentary highlights that the main source of contention between China and the Philippines is not the South China Sea but rather stems from the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration’s overt alignment with the US. This stance by the Philippine government is viewed in China as having clearly crossed China’s red lines. Marcos was even referred to as a blatant ‘white-eyed wolf’ in another commentary.
Meanwhile, discussions are emerging regarding Japan-Philippines cooperation in the South China Sea. The deployment of three Philippine coast guard vessels on 1 July in response to the presence of the Chinese coast guard near the 9701-coast guard ship at Xianbin Reef, manufactured in Japan, is generating significant discussion. This has sparked speculation among commentators about its strategic implications. Some are questioning whether the Philippines’ deployment of one of its newest coast guard ships, built by Mitsubishi Shipbuilding Co. Ltd, signals a deepening of bilateral cooperation between Japan and the Philippines as well as Tokyo’s potential increasing involvement in the dispute. There is also speculation that Japan may provide additional support to the Philippines and that Tokyo and Manila are forming a coalition against China.
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Lopsided discourse in China
The Philippines’ response to confrontations in the South China Sea is often seen as influenced by the US, and its eagerness for dialogue is sometimes perceived as a sign of weakness rather than a step toward stabilising relations and regional stability. The recently concluded ninth China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea has sparked commentary suggesting that Manila may be recognising Beijing’s diminishing patience, especially following the sighting of China’s aircraft carrier Shandong near the Philippines. An article on a Chinese news website argues that years of close alignment with the West have yielded little for the Philippines beyond empty promises, prompting Manila to reassess its approach and bolster its outreach to Beijing.
Narratives prevalent in Chinese social media and strategic circles closely mirror the government’s stance. While considerable attention is given to the Philippines and its cooperation with the US, the discourse has broadened to include the responses and actions of countries like India and Japan, recognising them as emerging players in the South China Sea. However, the broader discourse remains skewed, lacking analysis from the Philippines’ perspective and failing to address broader regional concerns and implications.
Sana Hashmi, PhD, is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)