Dynasties fall, Fadnavis rises & BJP shakes off LS jitters. Maharashtra, Jharkhand & bypoll takeaways

Hemant Soren is another big winner, while biggest questions must be asked of Congress. A negative consequence is that freebies have now cemented themselves as an unassailable idea.

File photo of a BJP supporter outside party HQ in Delhi | Manisha Mondal | ThePrint

The biggest takeaway from this set of state elections and the many bypolls is the most obvious one: The BJP has now fully recovered from the setback of the general election earlier this summer. This buries the party’s fears—and its rivals’ hopes—that it was now in a downward spiral and that a heavy object only gathers more momentum as it rolls down.

That slide has been fully blocked, even reversed at least in Maharashtra, where the BJP is headed to win many more assembly seats than in 2019 and dramatically more than its general election score. Within this big headline, we spot a dozen other important points.

• Maharashtra underlines that the one thing that hasn’t changed in national politics is the Congress party’s inability to beat the BJP. Indications are that the party is trending towards its average of losing to the BJP in straight contests 85 percent of the time. Watch Vidarbha, its supposed stronghold. The Congress has won or is leading in only seven out of the 35 seats where it was pitted against the BJP. Overall, it seems likely to end up winning less than 20 percent of the 100 seats it contested. Compare this with the BJP’s winning record of nearly 90 percent against all challengers.

• The Opposition, especially the INDIA bloc, has not found a formula, slogan or even cohesion to beat the BJP. Voters found it less convincing on freebies, its ideology is muddled and a positive agenda is absent. What’s the big thing it promised Maharashtra besides getting Adani out of Dharavi, where the Congress has won.

• In the big picture, there are two big winners from these elections. Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra and Hemant Soren in Jharkhand. Under Fadnavis, the BJP has delivered successive stellar performances, winning over 130 seats now after 105 in 2019. It will be hard to justify not giving him back the chief ministership.

Soren has shown fortitude, having braved long incarceration and led his coalition to an even better performance than in 2019. That’s a rarity in Indian politics, especially for the Opposition. That Rahul Gandhi and the Congress did not campaign much in his state was probably a blessing.

• There are also two more winners in Maharashtra. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar have arrived as the real leaders of the parties they prised away from their founders. Shinde’s strike rate of nearly 70 percent establishes his rise as a leader of consequence, not a mere usurper.

• This also underlines a very important development in India’s political evolution: that a family is no longer the repository of an ideology. Apart from the Thackerays and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, don’t forget the Badals and the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab.

• This election marks the end of two storied dynasties in Indian politics: Sharad Pawar and the Thackerays. Both will probably see a rapid haemorrhage of cadres and even legislators. What’s the point of hanging on to your dynastic patrons if they can’t get you votes. Merging with the Congress and giving some assurance to the career of his daughter, Supriya Sule, will be among the options Sharad Pawar looks at.

• The biggest questions are asked of the Congress. The hard Left ideological proposition Rahul Gandhi set up has been fully rejected. There is no vote for a single-point anti-corporate agenda in the country. As we had said after the Haryana results, young voters want to be wealthy and successful like the Ambanis and Adanis, not send them to jail. Rahul Gandhi has got this wrong for a decade. His party and allies keep paying the price.

• Again, nobody in the Congress would dare ask this, but what is the point of carrying on waving that copy of the Constitution now? The threat to the Constitution ended with the BJP diminishing to 240. And it isn’t an issue in any state elections. Nobody was talking of 400-paar now. Similarly, the caste census has become a mantra voters are bored with. Is the Congress party capable of imagining something more attractive and future-looking? Does it even have a think tank? Nobody knows what it’s thinking except repeating yesterday’s slogans. As we had said in this National Interest, the Congress has drawn the wrong lessons from the general elections.

• The BJP’s chances are best when it’s up against the Congress. Its magic, if anything, is waning before regional leaders. Evidence: Hemant Soren in Jharkhand, and Mamata Banerjee sweeping the bypolls in West Bengal.

• The near-sweep in the UP by-elections also rehabilitates Yogi Adityanath and repairs the damage of general elections. He had a free hand in the choice of candidates this time, and led the campaign. He’ll see his place in the BJP cemented.

• A negative consequence is that the success of giveaway schemes in Maharashtra and Jharkhand cements freebies as an unassailable idea. Why did it not work for the MVA? Because there was lack of cohesion and voters weren’t convinced it was winning. They found its freebie promises less convincing.

• An important positive for the Congress should not get buried under its debris in Maharashtra. In Karnataka’s Channapatna, its key leader D.K. Shivkumar succeeded in defeating Union minister H.D. Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil, and he did it by fielding a recent defector he secured from the BJP. This is a big move into the Gowda family-led (and BJP ally) JDS’s Vokkaliga base. This will have consequences. The Gowda dynasty seems headed for extinction.

• Did hard Hindutva work? The pitch was the hardest in Jharkhand, and it failed spectacularly. Even in Maharashtra, the BJP’s ally, Ajit Pawar, questioned it. A question was also raised by its own young leader, Pankaja Munde, as well.

• And finally, Priyanka Gandhi won Wayanad as expected. This brings three members of the Gandhi family into Parliament. It’s also a good time for the party to do a real introspection on its future.

That’s a lot of takeaways from just two state elections and a bunch of by-elections. Note, however, that these results have mostly come from the states that pegged the BJP down to 240 last summer.