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HomeOpinionBJP underestimated 'corruption' backlash. Assess Karnataka result before blame game begins

BJP underestimated ‘corruption’ backlash. Assess Karnataka result before blame game begins

BJP central leadership must not only analyse the Karnataka election result in all seriousness but also share the outcome with party workers. Bigger battles lie ahead.

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The decisive victory of the Congress and the downright defeat of the BJP in Karnataka have made both the parties go back to the drawing board and recalibrate their strategies for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The Janata Dal (Secular) was  hoping to be the kingmaker but had to contend with 19 seats in the 224-member assembly and watch the mandate go in favour of the Congress, perhaps far beyond the grand old party’s expectations.

Out of the 135 seats it won, the Congress’s victory margin in 49 seats was between 10,000 and 25,000 votes, between 25-50,000 in  37 seats, and more than 50,000 in 12 seats, with the BJP emerging as the second candidate. This election has been a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, probably heralding a new political trajectory for the future.

The BJP, which did not anticipate such a poor performance, must now analyse the election results and voting patterns in order to assess the situation in Karnataka, as it usually does after every election. Based on the available voting data, it appears that the BJP has managed to maintain its vote share, particularly in urban areas. However, there seems to be a significant shift of the traditionally BJP-leaning Lingayat community’s vote towards the Congress. The JDS, which typically secured around 20 percent of the vote share in previous elections, experienced a drop to 13.3 percent this time, suggesting that these voters may have shifted their support to the Congress. Independents and other parties faced a near-complete defeat.

The Congress effectively executed a campaign against the BJP, portraying it as a corrupt party. The main narrative built by the Congress in the lead-up to the election was the allegation that Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai ran a 40% commission government. The BJP had ample time to counter these allegations, expose the corruption within the Congress, and address this issue transparently. Surprisingly, the BJP’s response to the Congress’s efforts was lacklustre, to say the least. Perhaps the BJP’s poll managers underestimated the seriousness with which voters would perceive these allegations. If the BJP’s total washout in the election leads us to conclude that the Congress was right, then the blame lies solely with the BJP.

The BJP’s central leadership should begin a course correction before the blame game starts in the state unit that would harm the party in the coming elections. A badly divided and leaderless state unit smarting under a shameful defeat will not be able to retain next year the seats that the BJP won in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The BJP should not only conduct the poll analysis in all seriousness but also share the outcome with party workers to make necessary corrections. After the miserable debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Congress constituted a four-member team led by AK Antony who submitted a report listing the errors the Congress made during its  campaign. The report, which absolved the Gandhi family and then-Prime Minister of the debacle, was never circulated among senior members of the party.


Also read: BJP’s 2014 mandate is near its expiry date. Modi magic didn’t work in Karnataka


Bigger battles lie ahead

As expected, the Congress party attributes its remarkable victory in Karnataka to Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’. Out of the 21 assembly constituencies covered by the yatra, the Congress emerged victorious in 16, marking an increase of eleven seats compared to the previous election. The party’s strike rate in these 21 constituencies stands at 74 percent, a notable surge of 52 percent since the 2018 election. While several local factors may have contributed significantly to this substantial gain in seats and vote share, the impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra in motivating party workers and supporters cannot be disregarded.

It would be simplistic for the Congress to solely attribute the Karnataka victory to the Gandhi scion, although it is customary for every Congress leader to do so, given the party’s structure and tradition. The salience of the Congress’ electoral promises and ‘freebies’ should not be underestimated, neither by the BJP nor the incumbent government. The party’s promises include a monthly payment of Rs 2,000 to the female head of the family, Rs 1,500 per month for unemployed diploma holders, and Rs 3,000 for degree holders. Other freebies in the party’s manifesto include free travel for women in state-run buses, 200 units of free power for every family, 500 litres of tax-free diesel annually for deep-sea fishing, and a lean period allowance of Rs 6,000 for all fishermen during non-fishing months. Additionally, the manifesto includes the purchase of cow dung at Rs 3 per kg. If implemented sincerely, these freebies would cost the state over Rs 62,000 crore annually, significantly impacting the budget. A similar pattern was observed in the elections won by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab and the Congress in Himachal Pradesh.

In 2023, elections are scheduled to take place in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana. In 2024, the assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, and Maharashtra will coincide with the Lok Sabha election. Given the outcome of the Karnataka results, it is highly likely that no party will be able to resist the temptation of making irresponsible poll promises and offering freebies. However, it is important to recognise that such populist promises will inevitably impact long-term growth projections and contribute to an increase in fiscal deficits for both the states and the central government.

The Karnataka election result is expected to have significant implications for the future dynamics of domestic politics, economic planning, and international relations in the country. It is crucial for all parties, particularly the BJP and the Congress, to come together on sensitive and strategic matters that will influence national security and economic advancement.

Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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