Earlier this week, Dhaka seemed on the verge of an 5 August redux. Huge crowds gathered outside Bangabhaban, the official residence of Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahbuddin, demanding his resignation. For several tense hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, it looked as if they would barge into the presidential home and ransack it, just as they had with the deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s home, Ganabhaban, on that fateful August afternoon just hours after she had fled.
Why the outburst against the president? Because he had told a newspaper that he did not have any documentary evidence that Sheikh Hasina had resigned her post and that there was no resignation letter. This statement echoed what her son, Sajeeb Wazed, had told Reuters on 9 August: “My mother never officially resigned. She didn’t get the time…As far as the constitution goes, she is still the prime minister of Bangladesh.”
For a people who had ousted Sheikh Hasina just 80 days ago, the president’s statement was the last thing they wanted to hear. It took a lot of force and persuasion to disperse the crowds at Bangabhaban and restore order. Reports indicate that two people were shot at, though it remains unclear who fired the bullets.
Even as the Bangabhaban drama unfolded on Tuesday, India’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pranay Verma, told a gathering at the National Defence College in Dhaka that India will continue to seek “a stable, positive, and constructive” relationship with Bangladesh. And so it should, without question. But there is no escaping the fact that our next-door neighbour is lurching from one crisis to another, and India must take steps to avoid getting hit by the consequences.
Terror acronyms: JMB, HuJI-B, HuT
One consequence that India, especially the eastern states, may have to deal with is infiltration. The entry of illegal migrants across the 4000 km long porous India-Bangladesh border, driven by poverty and religious bias—both in the past and today—is not a new problem. But now, with the rise of radical Islamist forces in Dhaka, the chances of infiltration by terror groups are a clear and present danger.
In West Bengal, few have forgotten the Khagragar blast of 2 October 2014, which brought NSA Ajit Doval down to Bardhaman post haste. The blast killed two people but opened a can of terror activities by the Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which was subsequently found to have peppered Bengal with terror cells. Another terror acronym that became a household name across Bengal during that time was Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJi-B).
The new kid on the block is Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), an international Islamic movement seeking to unite Muslims across the world under a caliphate. Founded in Jerusalem in 1953, it reportedly had a presence in 50 countries by 2019 but was banned in around 20. Britain proscribed the outfit in January this year. Pakistan banned it in 2003 and Bangladesh in 2009.
India banned HuT just two weeks ago, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah tweeting on 10 October that, “Pursuing Narendra Modi Ji’s policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism, the MHA today declared Hizb-Ut-Tahrir as a terrorist organisation.”
What prompted the ban is not known but it may have to do with reports of college students in Dhaka holding marches displaying banners resembling those of ISIS. Bangladesh’s police chief, Md Mainul Islam, reportedly blamed HuT for these provocative marches, saying that 10 people had been arrested. In September, HuT held a press conference in the Bangladesh capital demanding that the ban on the outfit be lifted. The ban has not been lifted yet.
Ease of imports from Pakistan
What has been lifted, however, is an erstwhile practice in Bangladesh requiring the physical examination of all imports from Pakistan. In early October, the National Board of Revenue (NRB) wrote to Customs authorities that physical inspections of shipments from Pakistan were no longer necessary—a decision reportedly following a recent meeting between Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus in New York. This requirement was implemented during Sheikh Hasina’s prime ministership when relations between the two countries were strained for historical reasons.
Imports from Pakistan include, among other routine goods, fruits and baby food. But what has caught the attention of Bangladesh watchers in India is a spike in the shipment of arms and ammunition from Pakistan to Bangladesh. According to at least one article, the “establishment in Indian government have learnt that Bangladesh is set to receive a substantial shipment of defence materials from Pakistan, including 40,000 rounds of ammunition, Tank ammunition 2000 quantity, 40 tons of RDX explosive in wax consistency, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles. This represents a significant increase from the previous year’s order, which included 12,000 rounds of ammunition.”
Reports regarding the arms shipment from Pakistan to Bangladesh came in August, and the lifting of physical inspections by Dhaka was announced on 1 October, causing some concern among Indian observers. Who knows what else Pakistan may send to Bangladesh that could be inimical to India’s interests?
A constitutional president
In the circumstances, the demands for the resignation of the Bangladesh president assumes greater significance. Besides the chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force, President Shahbuddin is the only other significant constitutional appointment made by Sheikh Hasina. Although it is a ceremonial post, his exit could mark the end of Bangladesh as the country it has been since its formation in 1971. The student group spearheading the demand to sack him—the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement—has also called for the scrapping of Bangladesh’s 1972 Constitution. For India, which played a significant role in the birth of the nation, the mood in Dhaka does not bode well.
Monideepa Banerjie is a senior journalist based in Kolkata. She tweets @Monideepa62. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)