Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his publicity team are masters of the election one-liner. In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party slogans were ‘ache din aane wale hain – good days will come’, and ‘ghar ghar Modi – Modi in every home’. The 2019 one-liner was ‘phir ek baar Modi sarkar – Modi government once again’, with a reminder from the Balakot surgical strike, ‘ghar mein ghuskar maara – we entered the enemy’s home and killed them’. In 2024, the BJP went into the Lok Sabha election campaign with the war cry of ‘abki baar char sau paar; this time we will get over 400 seats.
The slogan is designed to intimidate the Opposition. The idea is to push a media narrative that the election is a ‘done deal’ – one which the former has no hope of winning. Char sau paar is cleverly pitched psychological warfare to force the Opposition to give up without a fight.
But today, mid-way through the long campaign, surprise surprise, abki baar char sau paar is no longer heard outside the BJP’s core voters. It’s been given a quiet burial. The truth is that the party’s 400-plus-seats pitch was nothing but a jumla or empty promise. It was yet another pipe dream sold to India’s people by Modi. Like each of Modi’s spins, the mainstream media swallowed it without any journalistic scepticism. No questions were raised about the PM’s fantastical claims.
What reality looks like
Reality doesn’t match fantasy. First, the BJP itself is only contesting 441 seats this time. To forecast that the BJP can achieve an over 90 per cent strike rate and win above 400 seats when it is contesting only 441 is a tall order even for the mighty saffron election machine.
Second, large parts of South India are proving to be BJP-resistant. The party has never won a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, it has won only five seats so far (four in the general elections of 1999 and one in 2014).
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has been forced to tie up with Telugu Desam Party leader Chandrababu Naidu who once called Modi a “terrorist.” In Karnataka, after the decisive Congress win in the assembly polls of 2023, it is unlikely that the BJP is going to be able to repeat its 2019 haul of 25 seats.
Third, regional parties are mounting fierce battles against the BJP. In Bengal and Odisha, the BJP has formidable challengers in the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD).
The TMC has successfully pushed the BJP onto the backfoot in West Bengal, where the latter’s candidate selection has been fraught with infighting. The BJP lacks a credible local leader, and the sudden Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) notification has backfired. Moreover, the BJP’s murky conspiracy in Sandeshkhali, and the alleged misconduct of Bengal governor CV Ananda Bose, who is a Modi appointee, have appalled voters. The Modi government’s denial of funds to Bengal strikes a chord with an electorate that already views New Delhi with suspicion. True, these are national elections, but the serious-minded Bengal voter today is in no mood to be swept up by the Modi personality cult.
Maharashtra is turning out to be a maha-mess, with the shifting alliances fragmenting the vote, making it nearly impossible for the BJP’s Mahayuti alliance to repeat the NDA’s 2019 result of 41 seats. In Tamil Nadu, early trends suggest that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has swept the state.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are turning out to be a state-by-state fight. Up against locally rooted regional parties like the TMC and DMK, the BJP finds itself floundering and comes up second best. Even in 2019, the BJP won only 29 of the 129 seats south of the Vindhyas. In North and West India, the BJP hit peak popularity on “muscular nationalism” after the Balakot air strikes of 2019, which has now reached its saturation point.
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‘400 paar’ was always a spin
With no “wave” in sight, the BJP may not be able to repeat its remarkable performance. Farmers’ protests have driven the party out of Punjab. In Haryana, three independent MLAs have withdrawn support and the BJP government is looking shaky. In Rajasthan, the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress is powering up in certain areas.
The char sau paar pitch was always a spin, a slogan, a pipe dream, and a marketing gimmick. Yet the mainstream media asked no questions, offered no reality checks, and did not push back on the ruling party’s claims. Instead, it ran with a rah-rah chorus, trumpeting the next big inevitable Modi win.
Modi’s theories and gaffes are hardly ever systematically countered or dealt with dispassionately by an adoring Modi-worshipping media. A suspension of rationality, an abandonment of reason takes hold every time Modi spins his jumlas and makes spectacularly outlandish statements.
In 2014, Modi asserted that ancient India harboured knowledge of genetic science and plastic surgery. The PM cited the Mahabharata hero Karna and the Hindu god Ganesha as examples. He claimed that Ganesha was proof of advanced plastic surgery, while Karna’s miraculous birth proved the existence of genetic science. These statements should have been promptly and rigorously fact-checked by the media, but there was little attempt to prise apart the PM’s breezy conflating of mythology, belief and legend with science.
In 2019, Modi claimed that he had decided on the timing of the Balakot airstrike because the night was cloudy – and the Pakistani radar would thus be unable to detect India’s fighter jets. Radar, which played a crucial role in World War II in detecting enemy aircraft, easily pierces clouds. But again, there was gawking acceptance of Modi’s words by the media.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, Modi exhorted people to bang steel thalis (plates) and clap to apparently honour frontline workers.
The historian Timothy Snyder writes that this “mode of magical thinking, or the open embrace of contradiction” is exactly what authoritarian leaders encourage. People must stay hypnotised with the possibilities of miracles and magic and enticed away from hard facts. In the grip of “magical thinking”, people lose the capacity to question the powerful based on truths. Citizens are reduced to spectators, gazing mutely at the leader’s string of fanciful illusions amplified by the media.
The aim is to transform an entire country into a cult, citizens into fanboys and fangirls of the magical mystery tour being enacted daily by the ‘miracle-working’ PM with the ready help of a pliant media. This “mode of magical thinking” destroys voters’ ability to think rationally and independently and, in turn, democracy.
Few in the media dare to pinpoint Modi’s inconsistencies and contradictions. The pledge of Rs 15 lakh in every bank account has not been fulfilled, and the two-crore-jobs-a-year promise hasn’t materialised either. Modi’s much-hyped announcement of India becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is only the natural progression of a big, growing economy. The $5 trillion target does not owe to any dramatic growth surges under Modi. India’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.8 per cent during the UPA’s 10 years and fell to 5.8 per cent during the NDA’s tenure.
This election has thrown up many reality checks. Water shortage emergencies are developing in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Examination paper leaks are tormenting students in Bihar and Rajasthan. Price rises of essential commodities are burning holes in household budgets.
A harried citizenry is increasingly fatigued by Modi’s glittering unconvincing promises. The glitzy propaganda bombardment from the media is at odds with the grim realities that most are facing in their daily lives.
Four hundred seats for the BJP or even the NDA is looking impossible in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. The BJP is likely to finish well below the 400-seat mark. Instead of ‘who-will-cross-400,’ the real battle is ‘who-will-cross-the-majority-mark-of-272’.
The writer is a Rajya Sabha MP, All India Trinamool Congress. She tweets @sagarikaghose. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
While I also don’t like Modi much, I stay away from these Modi Haters. They are so predictable that they don’t provide any new info. Utterly boring.
So I headed right to comment box just by reading the author’ name without even read further.
She should talk to her husband more often. He has been moving around a lot in the field. He would share with her what he has been telling the rest of the world. That while people may have got used to the PM his popularity remains undiminished.
Someone with pathological hatred towards can’t be expected to provide nuanced opinion. So, there is no credibility here.