Kolkata, Jul 6 (PTI) The bypolls to three Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal have brought into focus the far-reaching consequences of the split in the opposition TMC, with the altered arithmetic in the state assembly placing the BJP in a strong position to win all three seats in a contest that would ordinarily have yielded one seat to the opposition.
The bypolls, scheduled for July 24, were necessitated by the resignations of former TMC Rajya Sabha members Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev and Prakash Chik Baraik, who quit both the Upper House and the party in June after questioning the leadership following the TMC’s defeat in the assembly elections.
The terms of Roy and Baraik were due to run till September 2029, while Dev’s tenure was to continue till April 2030.
Following the 2026 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the dominant force in the 294-member House with 208 seats, while the TMC won 80. Congress and the Aam Janata Unanyan Party (AJUP) secured two seats each, while the CPI(M) and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) won one seat apiece.
Subsequent resignations reduced the BJP’s strength to 207 and that of the AJP to one, leaving the ruling party with a comfortable majority and the opposition camp with 85 legislators.
Under normal circumstances, the opposition’s combined strength would have been sufficient to secure one Rajya Sabha seat, with the BJP taking the remaining two.
The political equation, however, changed dramatically after the TMC split into rival camps led by former chief minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee and Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee.
According to the current alignment, around 65 MLAs are with the Ritabrata camp while about 15 legislators continue to back the Mamata Banerjee camp.
The division has fundamentally altered the arithmetic of the Rajya Sabha election.
Under the electoral formula governing the three-seat bypoll, a candidate would require around 70 first-preference votes to secure an election. While the BJP’s 207 MLAs allow it to comfortably distribute votes among three candidates and potentially secure around 69 votes each, neither TMC faction on its own possesses the numbers required to elect a member.
“As things stand, the split in the opposition has converted what would normally have been a two-one contest into a situation where the BJP can realistically target all three seats,” a senior political analyst said.
The significance of the bypolls extends beyond numbers.
The election comes at a time when rival TMC factions are locked in a fierce battle before the Election Commission over the party’s name, symbol and organisational control, with both sides claiming to represent the “real” Trinamool Congress.
The dissidents first demonstrated their strength when 58 of the TMC’s 80 MLAs backed Ritabrata Banerjee’s claim to the post of Leader of the Opposition, rejecting the nominee supported by the Mamata Banerjee camp. The rebel faction now claims the support of around 65 legislators and has projected itself as the legitimate inheritor of the party’s political legacy.
The Mamata Banerjee camp sought to play down the significance of the possible Rajya Sabha setback, arguing that the vacancies were the result of “betrayal” by leaders who deserted the party after benefiting from its political platform.
“These seats belonged to the TMC and were won on the strength of the party in the last assembly election. A few individuals chose to desert the party after the results. The people of Bengal are watching who stood with them and who abandoned them at a difficult moment,” a senior leader aligned with the Mamata Banerjee faction said.
The rebel camp, however, maintained that the resignations reflected a deeper crisis within the party.
“The resignations are not isolated incidents. They are part of a larger political message. The leadership ignored repeated warnings from within the organisation, and the consequences became evident in the assembly election. The real issue is not the Rajya Sabha seats but why so many elected representatives no longer have faith in the present leadership,” a rebel faction leader said.
The Mamata Banerjee camp contends that the Assembly’s decision to make separate seating arrangements for the two factions has already acknowledged the political reality of the split.
While some political circles have speculated about the Ritabrata Banerjee faction fielding its own candidate, observers say the prospects of securing support from parties such as the Congress and CPI(M) appear limited, given the current political alignments.
As a result, the possibility of a broader opposition-backed candidate is not viewed as a likely scenario.
Such a combination could theoretically bring together around 70 votes, enough to make one seat competitive and potentially complicate the BJP’s calculations.
Yet most analysts believe the BJP still retains a significant advantage, particularly because of the possibility of cross-voting, a recurring feature of Rajya Sabha elections in several states in recent years.
With nominations yet to begin, the final contours of the contest remain fluid. Yet, unless the rival opposition factions arrive at an understanding, the numbers in the assembly place the BJP in a strong position to convert what would normally have been a two-to-one contest into a clean sweep. PTI PNT NN
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