Berlin/Rome: A rise in new coronavirus infections in Italy, Spain and elsewhere in Europe is raising questions about the speed with which the region can begin to relax its stringent restrictions on public life.
Italy said on Wednesday that it recorded 3,836 new coronavirus cases, the highest in three days; In Spain, they rose the most in four days, while the U.K. reported a record number of coronavirus deaths.
“The number of new cases compels us to say that we have to keep our guard high, and maintain the behavior recommended by the experts to prevent the spread of the virus,” said Angelo Borrelli, head of Italy’s civil protection agency.
The resurgence in cases complicates efforts by European leaders to try and gradually ease the strict rules that have been put in place to slow the march of the pathogen. The restrictions are having a devastating impact on economies across the region, and countries like Germany and Italy are looking into how they can begin to relax some of the curbs.
The impact of the lockdowns are becoming starkly evident, even in the region’s biggest economies. German output is expected to slump almost 10% in the April-June period, the most since records for quarterly data began in 1970, while the French economy shrank the most since World War II in the first quarter.
For Italy, the weakest of the continent’s large economies and the country where the restrictions have been in place the longest, the impact is set to be even more dramatic.
The premier of Germany’s largest state proposed a “clear road map” for relaxing the nation’s lockdown ahead of a call with regional leaders and Chancellor Angela Merkel on April 15 in which they will revisit current restrictions.
“The criterion for possible openings should be whether rules for proper distancing can be maintained — and whether proper protective measures are available,” Armin Laschet, who governs the hard-hit western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, told Handelsblatt newspaper in an interview.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is preparing for a gradual exit from stringent virus containment measures over the next several months, with some companies and shops possibly reopening as soon as early next week and other firms returning to work beginning May 4.
The timing of the end to the unprecedented restrictions imposed on hundreds of millions of Europeans is pitting government authorities against public health officials, who say talk of an exit is too early as the hardest-hit nations are only beginning to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
After the emergence of new infections on Wednesday, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned countries not to rush into lifting restrictions.
“Based on the available evidence, it is currently too early to start lifting all community and physical distancing measures” in Europe, the agency said. “Sustained transmission of the virus is to be expected if current interventions are lifted too quickly.”
Schools in Italy, Europe’s original epicenter of the outbreak, will likely remain closed until September. Subsequent steps to ease restrictions will depend on the spread of the disease remaining under control. The lockdown, in place since early March, has closed all non-essential activities and banned most movement.
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The continent has been hit hard, suffering more than 65% of worldwide deaths and Spain, Italy, France and Germany trailing only the U.S. in infections.
Merkel, who has urged caution to prevent a rekindling of the epidemic, has been careful to say that while her government was looking at options for re-opening, for now Germans should remain indoors. Restrictive measures in the country ban gatherings of more than two people, with exceptions for families.
France, which has reported more than 112,000 infections, plans to extend confinement rules beyond April 15, and President Emmanuel Macron will address the nation on Monday for the third time since the virus outbreak.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will ask parliament on Thursday for approval to extend a state of emergency through April 25. The country will return to normal life gradually after that, although experts are still working on how that process will work, Maria Jesus Montero, budget minister and government spokeswoman, told broadcaster Antena 3.
The European Commission warned against hasty exits from mass isolation, saying that such measures can be reversed only when the disease’s spread has “significantly decreased for a sustained period of time.”
“Any level of (gradual) relaxation of the confinement will unavoidably lead to a corresponding increase in new cases,” the Commission said, according to a draft of an internal memo seen by Bloomberg.
Experts warned about jumping to conclusions after a few days of improving figures in some countries. While the general trend is “positive,” the pandemic is still only in its early stages, according to the head of the public health authority in Germany, where new infections rose the most in three days.
“We are seeing that we can dampen the growth of the illness, but it’s really only a snapshot,” Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said on Deutschlandfunk radio.-Bloomberg
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