New Delhi: Dr Faheem Younus, a leading US health expert and chief of infectious diseases at the University of Maryland’s Upper Chesapeake Health, took to Twitter to talk about the Covid-19 pandemic and when it will end.
In a thread, Younus said people should be extremely cautious until April 2021, but added nobody knows for sure when the pandemic will end.
2/ How it may end in 2021?
– actual infections + cross immunity higher than counted
– plus masks/social distancing reduces the R <1
– more tests/treatments
– select populations get vaccinated
– meaning herd immunity achieved faster than expected
Outbreak slows down. Then dies
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 27, 2020
‘Cross immunity’ refers to the immune system developing antibodies against viruses with antigens or proteins similar to the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Such antibodies ‘recognise’ antigens on the virus and launch an attack, even in people who have not been exposed to the virus before. ‘Actual infections’ means people who have recovered from Covid-19.
All of this could lead to achieving herd immunity faster than expected, Younus noted. “Outbreak slows down, virus dies,” he said.
But in the next tweet, Younus also listed out why the pandemic could continue until 2022.
3/ Why it can drag into 2022?
– businesses/schools open
– flu mixes with COVID in winter
– weak testing/tracing systems
– politics influences policy
– vaccine delayed
– people lose patience
Result? COVID continues its asymmetric spread during 2021, then burns out/vaccine
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 27, 2020
Younus draws the conclusion that the “mind says” the pandemic will end in 2022, while the “heart wants” 2021. He ended the thread on “cautious optimism”.
4/ Conclusion: When it ends for everyone?
Mind says 2022
Heart wants 2021
Don’t stop living. Maintain aggressive hand washing/masks/crowd avoidance, get through this winter, then reassess in April 2021.
Situation will be clear by then.
Cautious optimism.
End/
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 27, 2020
Also read: Why some countries don’t want to wait for Covid vaccines from superpowers
Who is Dr Faheem Younus?
Younus is an award-winning infectious diseases specialist who has been in service for over two decades. He has been busting Covid-related myths since its outbreak, such as the one that the virus will go away in the higher temperatures of summer.
So I’m hearing many myths about #COVID-19 and would like to quickly clear the record.
Coronavirus will go away in Sumer months.
Wrong. Previous pandemics didn’t follow weather patterns plus as we enter summer, there will be winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Virus is global.
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) March 17, 2020
In 2008, the Barack Obama administration conferred Dr Younus with the ‘Presidential Service Award’ for his humanitarian services and volunteerism. He has been the recipient of the ‘Top Doc’ award given annually by the Baltimore magazine two years in a row (2017, 2018).
Faheem Younus often takes to Twitter to address concerns regarding the disease, provides solutions, and tackles overhyped Covid solutions.
If you have symptoms but can’t get tested within the first 24-48 h, it’s best to assume positivity. Isolate yourself at home for 10-days and strictly follow facemask/hand hygiene.
Protect others. That’s what heroes do.
(See my old tweets for home treatment of COVID) https://t.co/4MJ8M0V6nQ
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 25, 2020
DON’T waste your time/money/energy to:
Wipe down groceries
Wear gloves in public
Clean produce with vinegar
Change shoes/clothes after coming home
Believe everything on WhatsApp
Instead: wash hands, wear mask, avoid crowds. Until it ends…
Exercise patience, not passion
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 24, 2020
For this, he has earned praise from netizens.
Dr Younus is a voice of medical common sense in a madly germaphobe world ?? https://t.co/tDWgSuMZvq
— atul kasbekar (@atulkasbekar) August 25, 2020
I do not think any doctor ever gave these many regular/free consultations like @FaheemYounus gives. You have become family doctor to millions of unknown families. Your tweets are reassuring and always calm down my panic attacks.
Greetings and love from India 🙂
— Avadh Bihari (@avadh166) August 24, 2020
When the pandemic is over, I hope Dr. Faheem is given the Nobel Prize for saving millions from losing their mind and sliding into depression. Thanks once again doc! We are indebted to you. https://t.co/qE86NlWohU
— Saqib Mugloo (@Saqibmugloo) August 23, 2020
Younus has also educated the Twitterverse about the kind of Covid tests for different categories of patients, symptomatic and asymptomatic.
Which COVID test do I need?
Have symptoms? Get the PCR test (nasopharyngeal swab)
Have no symptoms? But recently exposed, want to check? Get PCR or antigen test (saliva or nose swab)
No symptoms, checking for old infection? Get antibody test (blood)
Recovered? No test!
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 26, 2020
However, some of Younus’ myth-busting has also later come under question because of new observations about Covid-19.
For example, he had tweeted that Covid-19 is only airborne “under limited conditions”.
Myth: COVID is airborne
Fact: It’s droplet. Airborne ONLY under limited conditions. Meaning facemasks work
Measles IS airborne. If this was a measles pandemic (pre-vaccine) BILLIONS would’ve been +ve by now
Comparison: If measles flies like an eagle, COVID flies like a chicken
— Faheem Younus, MD (@FaheemYounus) August 26, 2020
But other public health and infectious disease experts have asked WHO to revise guidelines after increased evidence of aerosol transmission, and have encouraged authorities to not underplay its seriousness.
Also read: Disturbed sleep, brain fog, nerve pain can torment recovered Covid patients for months