New Delhi: India’s R value — a key parameter to measure the rate of an infection’s spread — has decreased further this week to the lowest ever value of 0.88. It was 0.90 last week. The value has remained below 1 for the past four weeks.
R value represents the number of people one patient can infect. A value below 1 means the number of active cases are declining.
According to Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, most of the states with high active caseload continue to have an R value less than 1.
“However, the bad news is that apart from West Bengal, Kerala and Delhi now also have an R value more than 1,” Sinha told ThePrint.
Delhi is seeing a fresh outbreak of new Covid-19 cases, after several weeks of the capital city’s R value remaining below 1. This week, Delhi’s R increased to 1.13 — the highest among worst performing states — from last week’s 1.08.
Kerala, which is now the state with the second highest number of active cases, once again saw a rise in its R value. Last week, the state’s R value had dropped to 0.94 from 1.08 the week before, but it has now increased to 1.07.
Meanwhile, West Bengal’s R value saw a slight dip to 1.06 this week from last week’s 1.09. This drop came after a rise in the state’s R value for the past two weeks.
Also read: Why India’s Covid death numbers are lower than US, Brazil while cases rise at a higher pace
Other high burden states
Maharashtra has maintained the same R value of 0.88 as last week. Since the state has the highest number of active Covid-19 cases, its R value usually determines the trajectory for India.
Uttar Pradesh is the only high burden state that has seen an increase in its R value, although the metric remains below 1. The value has increased to 0.89 this week from last week’s 0.87.
All other high burden states have R values under 1, and saw a decrease this week. This included Karnataka whose R reduced to 0.74 this week from last week’s 0.91. Meanwhile, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Rajasthan have the same R value of 0.83 this week.
Rajasthan’s R value had remained over 1 from 11 September till about last week, making it one of the high burden states. The R value for Odisha reduced to 0.82 this week from from 0.84 last week.
Major metros
Apart from Delhi, Mumbai also saw an increase in its R value. Last week, the city’s R value was 0.81, which has increased to 1 this week. Pune, too, saw an increase to 0.92 this week from 0.90 last week.
Kolkata’s R value fell to 0.95 this week from nearly 1 last week, while Chennai’s R value reduced to 0.70 this week from 0.87 last week. Bengaluru now has a R value of 0.77, a dip from last week’s 0.97.
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