New Delhi: As the US confronts falling birth rates, a new study has found considerable differences between states in the share of childfree adults. California had the highest share at 22 per cent, while Louisiana had the lowest at 9.4 per cent. But the study also found that, more than place, personal factors such as age, relationship status and political beliefs influenced the decision to stay childfree.
Conducted by researchers at Michigan State University, the study was published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS One on August 12. Titled ‘The spatial distribution of the U.S. childfree population: Does state context matter?’ it analysed responses from 20,118 adults across all 50 states. The data came from the Civic Health and Institutions Project and were collected through a survey conducted between August 30 and October 8, 2024.
“At the individual level, a person was statistically significantly more likely to be childfree if they were male, single, older, White, and liberal,” the study said.
The researchers defined childfree adults as those who do not have children and do not want any in the future either. They are different from other non-parents, such as people who don’t have kids now but may want them in the future.
The findings come after an increase in the proportion of American non-parents who identify as childfree. Estimates from the US National Survey of Family Growth, cited by the researchers, show that the proportion of non-parents aged 15-44 who were childfree rose from 13.8 per cent in 2002 to 29.4 per cent in 2023.
Also Read: No kids please, we’re pet parents—why some Indian couples choose cats & dogs over babies
What accounts for the differences between states?
Topping the list of states with the highest shares of childfree adults was California, followed by Michigan (19.9 per cent) and New Hampshire (19.4 per cent). At the other end were Louisiana, followed by North Dakota and South Dakota (10 per cent each).
Despite these differences between states, the researchers found no evidence that childfree adults were concentrated in particular regions of the US.
“These results suggest that being childfree is not a regional phenomenon, and that large populations of childfree adults exist throughout the country,” they wrote.
But where people live was not irrelevant either. Being childfree was more common in states with larger populations and higher costs of living.
Politics and policy played a role as well. The study found that people with liberal political beliefs were more likely to be childfree. It also found an association between being childfree and stronger legal protections for abortion, although this disappeared when individual and state characteristics were considered together.
Interestingly, two of the three states with the highest shares of childfree adults — California and New Hampshire — voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election. Michigan, a swing state, voted Republican. On the other side of the spectrum, Louisiana, North Dakota and South Dakota all voted Republican.
Yet for all of that, individual characteristics such as age, gender, race and relationship status showed stronger associations with being childfree than state-level characteristics. Relationship status stood out in particular, with single people considerably more likely to be childfree than those with partners.
Through statistical modelling of state- and personal-level characteristics, the researchers estimated the probability of being childfree. The model put the probability at 3.3 per cent for a 30-year-old conservative, partnered, non-White woman, compared with 43.8 per cent for a 50-year-old liberal, single, White man.
The researchers suggested that their findings meant the childfree could not be easily budged.
“This finding has important policy implications, or rather, policy non-implications,” the study said. “State policies designed to achieve population growth and encourage people to have children by, for example, reducing the cost of living or improving public education, are unlikely to have an effect on people who do not want children.”
(Edited by Asavari Singh)