New Delhi: Migration across the world has nearly tripled from around 13 million people per year in 2000 to 35 million people per year in 2023, researchers have found.
The first-of-its-kind study, published in Nature on 10 June , was collated by researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the University of Hong Kong.
The researchers used advanced machine learning and AI to combine several data sources and create the most detailed migration map that has ever been assembled.
“Our estimates were obtained by combining classical flow modeling with deep learning, utilizing a wide range of data for model input and training; I think the scale and breadth of this dataset really showcases the potential of this kind of hybrid modeling in the computational sciences,” said lead author Thomas Gaskin, a postdoctoral researcher at LSE’s Department of Methodology, in a press release.
Earlier, migration estimates would be based on UN migrant stock data collected every five years or data published every 10 years by the World Bank. However, this dataset is unique because it is built on census data, official migration statistics, Facebook mobility data, and economic, demographic, cultural, and political indicators from 1990 to 2023.
“Because previous estimation methods relied on coarse five-year snapshots, they yielded very few data points and created the impression that the rate of global migration flows was stable,” co-author Guy Abel, a researcher and professor at the University of Hong Kong, said.
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What data says
The data shows that migration has only risen since the 2000s, with brief dips during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. Globally, the Middle East has seen the highest inflow of migrants, mainly from South Asia and the Philippines. From Bangladesh alone, an average of 300,000 people move to Saudi Arabia every year since 2010.
It is interesting to note that nearly 19 million migrants from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have moved to the Gulf states since 2010. This is nearly 6 million people more than the 13.6 million people who have migrated from Mexico to the US since 1990.
Unlike earlier datasets, which gave researchers only a glimpse of migration records, this dataset also reveals how populations moved during the South Sudan-Ethiopia refugee movement, or the Boko Haram-related migration in West Africa.
The data confirms that civil war in South Sudan from 2013 led to mass migrations into Ethiopia, and the 2009 insurgency in Nigeria, followed by attacks in 2014, led to nearly 79,000 Nigerians fleeing to neighboring countries.
Researchers say that such datasets may prove helpful to governments when it comes to responding to a humanitarian crisis, or planning policies related to housing, healthcare, and labour markets.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)