New Delhi: When the NDA government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee released data on poverty in 1999, a remarkable decline was witnessed. Soon, economists grew suspicious and questioned the numbers. Rather than a victory over poverty, it was simply a redefinition of the term that was recorded. But the Vajpayee government practised transparency.
“I have to give credit to the NDA government. They very much said: Here is the data, find out what’s wrong, do your analysis,” said Himanshu, associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, addressing a small group of economists, statisticians and analysts at Delhi’s India International Centre (IIC). In his hour-long lecture, ‘The Great Indian Poverty Debate’, he unpacked the poverty narrative in India.
It was a small room, and most of the seats were empty. In the audience were renowned economists, journalists, and retired civil servants, including Siraj Hussain and Anuradha Prasad.
The Vajpayee government opened up the National Statistical Survey Organization’s (NSSO) data to the public, leading to a lively debate that drew voices from both within India and abroad. The conclusion was ubiquitous: the new methodology used in calculating the consumer expenditure was faulty.
“The then Finance Minister came out in Parliament and admitted that there had been some problem in collection, and the data would not be used in any kind of poverty estimation. That was the government at that point of time,” Himanshu said.
The story of poverty in India is inseparable from data. For economists trying to untangle a problem as gargantuan as poverty, the numbers—how much, how many, how fast—are everything.
‘Data quality issues’
For much of India’s history, the NSSO conducted the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) roughly every five years. The 1999 controversy would soon become exceptional in public imagination, not because of its flawed data estimation, but because it set an unprecedented standard in public accountability.
Technically, the last official CES was conducted in 2011-12. In 2017-18, a new CES was conducted but its findings were withheld initially, citing “data quality issues”. The government refused to release the data, despite the report being approved and signed off by the National Statistical Commission.
“Finally, some brave journalist decided to leak it to the press. In what was perhaps the fastest the Government of India has ever worked, the data was released in the morning and by 5 o’clock, there was a communication stating that nobody could use the data,” Himanshu said mockingly.
“The communication claimed that there were errors or issues with the report, but what exactly were the issues was never clearly substantiated,” he added.
The results of the CES were undoubtedly concerning enough to be squashed. The data showed a decline in real per capita consumption compared to 2011-12. The implication was alarming: People were spending less, and poverty seemed to be on the rise.
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Ground realities
The results of the 2022-23 Consumption Expenditure Survey were released in early 2024. One would have expected post-pandemic economic disruptions, but the new data painted an optimistic picture. The data’s story of per capita consumption increasing and a dramatic decline in poverty seemed to mirror the Vajpayee government’s claims from 1999. This time, it didn’t take long for economists to identify the usual suspects: a faulty methodology and a lack of transparency.
Himanshu pointed out that it doesn’t take an economist to figure out that ground realities don’t match the figures disclosed. About 46 to 48 per cent of the population is still engaged in agriculture. Over 85 per cent of workers in the organised sector are still in informal or precarious jobs. Even within organised employment, there is little evidence of sustained income growth. More workers are shifting to agriculture—an alarming sign. So is the increase in female participation in agricultural work, long considered an indicator of economic distress, done only because all other work is unavailable.
“Across 200 countries, we don’t see a single case where the share of workers in agriculture rises during periods of GDP growth,” Himanshu said.
There has been a sharp decline in the income growth for the bottom 50 per cent of the population. Earlier, the growth percentage stood at around 7 per cent. Today, it is closer to 3 per cent. According to MNREGA data, 30 per cent of total houses on average are engaged in manual labour in blistering summer months, when temperatures rise to 35 degrees Celsius. These wages, which were higher than the private market in 2006 when they were introduced, are two-thirds of private market wages. Over 50 per cent of rural households are now queuing up at PDS stores to get free ration. Per person, their savings amount to about Rs 170 per month.
About 31 crore workers have registered on the e–Shram portal. Himanshu repeated the figure numerous times.
“Thirty-one crore workers are alive at this point of time, 95 per cent of the registered informal workers reported a monthly income of less than Rs 10,000—this is less than Rs 2,000 in a family of 4. Only 2 per cent earn more than Rs 15,000.”
The professor stressed that these are only official data. We still don’t know the real numbers.
“But whose job is it to provide clarity? It is the job of the government, the media and the planning bodies. This is how we have functioned since Independence,” Himanshu said.
He seemed frustrated by what he had uncovered in the data.
“But now, every institution—from EPW to the Economic Advisory Council—says nothing. There’s no serious discussion anymore. Instead, there’s deflection: ‘What’s wrong with what we’re doing?’”
Around the 50-minute mark, people started making discreet exits.
Himanshu turned cynical before listing urgent needs to fill the data gap that includes credible committees, experts, and official backing.
“After all, if people are working under the sun at 45 degrees Celsius, just for free food, it’s time we re-evaluated what ‘poverty’ means in India today. But I don’t see that happening anytime soon. So, we’re left with incomplete data, and everyone can pick the number they like best.”
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)