Thiruvananthapuram: The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a Congress ally, was leading on 23 seats in Kerala at 11 am Monday, indicating Muslim consolidation behind the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) alliance. The IUML contested 27 seats in the 140-member assembly.
P.K. Kunhalikutty, senior party leader, was leading by over 16,000 votes in Malappuram constituency in central Kerala, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI).
He is up against seven others, including Adv.Sadik Naduthodi of the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), Aswathi Gupthakumar of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and at least three others contesting as Independents.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) has deployed a strategy in several key seats where it backs Independents who have the option of joining the government later.
The IUML is a key component of the Congress-led UDF and has been a consistent performer in successive assembly and other elections. The party is also part of the INDIA alliance at the national level.
“IUML is a partner of the INDIA front at the national level and in Kerala, it is with the UDF. Here in Kerala, our main opponent is the LDF and at the national level, it is the National Democratic Alliance (NDA),” PMA Salam, state secretary general of IUML, had told ThePrint earlier.
He also said the party had made no demands for a bigger share in the cabinet or even for the deputy chief minister’s post if the UDF formed the government this year.
Unlike larger parties, the IUML contests on limited seats but maintains a high strike rate, making it an indispensable ally. In 2021, the party had contested on 25 seats and won 15, securing 8.27 percent of the total vote share. However, it bagged 45.19 percent of the vote share in the seats it contested in, according to ECI data.
In the current elections, the party contested on 27 seats, most located in central and northern Kerala where the IUML has a significant presence and seeks support from the large Muslim population in these areas.
In Kerala, the Muslim population is believed to back the Congress-led UDF as a consolidated voting bloc.
The party has also appointed two women to its national leadership for the first time, in a bid to project a progressive image amid criticism about the poor representation of women in Kerala politics: Jayanthi Rajan, from the Dalit community, and Fathima Muzaffer, a local councillor from Tamil Nadu.
According to the 2011 Census, Muslims account for 26.56 percent of Kerala’s population. Though the number of Muslim women is unavailable, the sex ratio in Kerala is 1,084 females for 1,000 males.
In 1996, the IUML had fielded its first female candidate, Khamarunnisa Anwar, from Kozhikode II constituency. She lost to the CPI(M)’s Elamaram Kareem.
In 2021, Noorbina Rasheed, a senior IUML leader, was fielded from Kozhikode South. She lost to the LDF’s Ahamed Devarkovil by over 12,000 votes.
Poll data shows that the IUML has been a consistent performer, irrespective of the final tally of the UDF and LDF. In 2016, the party bagged 18 seats and secured 7.4 percent of the total vote share, compared to 21 seats won by the Congress.
The LDF, on its part, has fielded several Muslim candidates, some of whom are contesting as Independents, to split the votes. The BJP is hoping this split will help it emerge as the dark horse in constituencies like Kasaragod, Manjeshwar and other places.
There are also allegations that the LDF—and in some cases the BJP—has backed candidates from the SDPI to split Muslim votes.
BJP leaders are also mobilising support from the Hindus. However, several party leaders concede that each time there is a chance of the BJP winning, the Muslims consolidate to defeat the national party.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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