New Delhi: After losing power in Himachal Pradesh, the defeat in Karnataka is a major setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in an election-packed year that will also see other big states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana go to polls.
The larger impact is the dent in the BJP’s southern ambition as the party looks to expand its footprints in states such as Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Karnataka was the only southern state where it was in power.
Losing out one of India’s most prosperous states will be bitter for the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election as of the total 28 parliamentary seats, it has MPs in 25 seats along with an Independent backed by the party.
Defeat was palpable despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hectic campaigning in Karnataka to counter anti-incumbency sentiment against the Basavaraj Bommai government and his all-out efforts to turn a localised state election into a personality-based national election.
Though the BJP vote share remained more or less the same, the reason for its loss in Karnataka cannot be pinned down on a single factor alone.
“Karnataka results are disappointing for the BJP, but it reflects that regionalism prevails over nationalism. Regional politics of caste, regional aspiration prevail, but it will not impact other states as our track record is unmatched. The PM’s popularity is continuously rising,” former Union minister and BJP spokesperson Rajiv Pratap Rudy told ThePrint.
Corruption & anti-incumbency
Unlike other BJP-ruled states like Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and even Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka was an exception as corruption became a major sticking point for the party.
The Congress’ 40 per cent commission government campaign dented the image of the BJP government, but Bommai somehow did not take steps to nip the problems in the bud.
When contractor Santosh Patil, who accused rural development minister minister K.S Eshwarappa of corruption, was found dead in April last year, the BJP leader was asked to resign but the party did not use the optics to address the allegation of corruption and to fight the negative narrative against it.
An audio clip of law minister J. C. Madhuswamy — who allegedly said that the government was not functioning and that the BJP is just managing things until the 2023 election — further disclosed the incompetence of the Bommai government.
From fighting corruption or taking along his Cabinet colleagues, Bommai did not exert himself as an assertive chief minister. Even when the Congress campaigned on corruption, he termed it merely as “dirty politics”.
The attack of the Karnataka Contractors’ Association against horticulture minister Muniratna only gave more ammunition to the Congress, which went on to launch the PayCM campaign in a direct attack on Bommai. Though the BJP launched ‘Scam Ramaiah’ in September last year, it was too late to contain the damages.
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Uninspiring state leadership
Prior to the election in 2018, the BJP announced Lingayat strongman B. S. Yediyurappa was its chief ministerial candidate almost a year ahead in advance while the central leadership supplemented the campaign of the Karnataka unit.
In contrast this year, the central leadership took over all aspects of campaigning with Bommai himself saying that the BJP would contest the election under the party’s collective leadership. Neither was he announced as the face of the party.
The BJP brass first diminished Yediyurappa’s clout by calling him again and again for the Cabinet expansion, which then happened with Bommai too. Yediyurappa was removed from the CM’s chair in 2021, despite the leadership knowing well that he is the only popular mass leader in Karnataka.
The party then realised its mistake and appointed Yediyurappa to the parliamentary board in August last year. It then went on a correction course with PM Narendra Modi holding his hand while inaugurating Shimoga airport for the shutterbugs in February 2024. Modi further cleared all contestants suggested by Yediyurappa and did not listen to suggestions of senior leader B.L.Santhosh.
Yediyurappa and his son B.Y. Vijayendra campaigned extensively, but Modi found a larger space than the former chief minister in the entire campaign. Many voters contended that the BJP made a big mistake by removing Yediyurappa from the CMO.
Siddaramaiah of the Congress, in contrast, enjoys huge popularity like Yediyurappa. The party, too, focused more on inflation, cylinder price and local issues.
Unlike in Uttarakhand, where two CMs were changed, and in Gujarat, where not only chief minister Vijay Rupani and deputy Nitin Patel but the whole structure of the state unit was also changed, the BJP did not undertake a drastic ‘surgery’ in Karnataka. Only two dozen sitting MLAs were denied tickets and the state president was not changed. Most of the dynasts were given tickets except a few like K. S. Eshwarappa.
After the results went against the party, a BJP functionary in Delhi conceded that Bommai was no match to Yediyurappa as a leader.
“When Yediyurappa was removed for bringing a generational change, Bommai was brought on the suggestion of Yediyurappa due to mild attitude and good chemistry with him. But he was not match of Yediyurappa. But like other states, more changes were not done…we did not remove the state president, many sitting MLAs. …humiliation of Yediyurappa did not go well in Lingayat pockets. Voters thought why to vote for the BJP if he is not in a commanding position,” the BJP functionary told ThePrint.
Local election versus central election
The BJP’s plan to benefit from the prime minister’s popularity did not work in Karnataka as it was not backed by an inspiring leadership or a strong campaign narrative.
As the Congress waged the electoral battle on local issues such as costly LPG cylinders, price rise, corruption among others, the BJP tried to turn the election around Modi, his leadership and popularity and double-engine government. Even during the election campaign, most of the public works cited were of the central government and not that of Bommai and Yediyurappa.
The Modi magic failed to work as the government’s image was tarnished by a sustained campaign of the Congress. Worse, infighting got more severe after ticket distribution.
In such a scenario, the BJP understood that the only way out was to divert public attention from the pressing local issues. It tried to cash in on the Congress manifesto to raise the bogey of Lord Hanuman, but the voters of Karnataka saw through the strategy and punished the BJP for not addressing local issues of governance.
“It was our best strategy, to turn the election on the national narrative to beat anti-incumbency knowing the extent of anti-incumbency in the state. From the start, we were getting a very dismal picture of the state, but it was the prime minister who bridged the gap. (But) the gap was wider this time and the narrative was against us,” a senior Karnataka minister told ThePrint.
The adverse results also showed the limitation of the Modi factor in states like Jharkhand, and Delhi which have strong leaders like Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal.
The Congress campaign was focussed on local issues, a Karnataka minister said.
“…we overlooked local issues and we were confident that once the PM campaigns, he will change everything. But the people were more concerned about development, price guarantee and livelihood. The Congress’ guarantees found more resonance. Since we were facing backlash on governance issue, the people did not trust our promises,” the minister told ThePrint, adding that the narrative was changed from Hizab to Tipu Sultan for diverting attention from anti-incumbency.
“…we found that we are still not getting traction and then switched to the development plank, but we kept reciting the record of the central government. We didn’t mention work of Yediyurappa and Bommai. We thought the Bajrang Dal ban would polarise voters. Our campaign strategy had major flaws. We didn’t counter the Congress on corruption effectively and did not present our solutions to local issues.”
Political analyst S.Y. Surendra told ThePrint that the BJP campaign was not in sync with ground realities. “They (BJP leaders) were thinking voters will vote on Modi’s name. The party did not respond to local distress at ground. They humiliated the widely accepted leadership of Yediyurappa. It all went against the BJP,” he added.
Reservation rejig didn’t work
As the Hijab and Tipu Sultan controversies were not getting the traction that it was expecting, the Bommai government unleashed its most potent weapon by rejigging the reservation matrix to reap electoral dividends.
In 2005, the then Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government had appointed a commission to inquire into the equitable distribution of reservation benefits among Scheduled Castes. Its report was never tabled in the assembly.
The Basavaraj Bommai government set up a five-member cabinet subcommittee on internal reservations in December last year. Then, on 23 March, the government announced a new reservation policy that gave additional quota to Lingayats and Vokkaligas.
But the last minute decision did not work like the way the party was expecting. The Dalit mobilisation happened in favour of the Congress in several pockets of Karnataka. The Kurubas consolidated in favour of Siddaramaiah while the Dalits — who were facing livelihood issues backed — the Congress in their strongholds.
The consolidation of Dalit, tribal and Vokkaliga votes for the Congress in north Karnataka cornered the BJP in its stronghold of Lingayat belt. Even the BJP’s efforts to get votes in Old Mysore did not get traction, as the JD(S) votes shifted to the Congress.
Senior leader Amit Shah had told the state leadership to focus on Old Mysore, but it was too late, according to party insiders. The BJP’s Vokkaliga push also did not work in absence of any face from the community in the region of Old Mysore.
Women support for BJP dwindled
Unlike in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam, beneficiaries of various central schemes did not back the Bommai government fully. The delivery component was not as smooth as in the other BJP-ruled states.
The people, who faced difficulties and became impatient, did not buy the BJP promise of a double-engine government. They were more drawn to the cash component offered by five guarantees of Congress in Yuva Nidhi, Anna Bhagya, Gruha Jyothi, Uchita Prayana and Gruha Lakshmi.
While Uchita Prayana proposes free travel for women in regular government-run buses, Gruha Jyothi promises 200 unit free electricity a month to all households. Under Gruha Lakshmi, each woman head of the family will receive Rs 2,000 monthly assistance.
A monthly assistance of Rs 3,000 will be given to all unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 for all unemployed diploma graduates (both in the age group of 18 to 25) for two years under Yuva Nidhi. Under Anna Bhagya, every person in a BPL family will receive 10 kg food grains every month.
Even as the BJP carried out advertising blitzkrieg highlighting its track record achieved through Swachh Bharat, Ayush Bharat and Kisan Samman Nidhi, the women suffered most due to the rise in the prices of LPG cylinders, food grains and essentials and electricity rates.
(Edited by Tony Rai)