Thiruvananthapuram: K. Surendran, the perennial runner-up for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was trailing Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) legislator A.K.M. Ashraf by 15,035 votes in Manjeshwar, according to early trends on Kerala assembly elections Monday.
In the last two elections, Surendran remained one of the BJP’s biggest hopes and came distressingly close to winning the seat.
In the 2021, Surendran secured 65,013 votes and got 37.7 percent of the votes cast, but lost by a slender margin of 745 votes to Ashraf of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).
In 2016, Surendran secured 56,781 votes (35.74 percent of the vote cast), but lost to P.B. Abdul Razak of the IUML by just 89 votes.
“Whenever there is a chance of the BJP winning, the minority votes consolidate behind the IUML,” Karunakaran Nambiar of the BJP told ThePrint earlier.
The BJP has attempted to secure the backing of the Hindu and Christian communities by promising development and highlighting the perceived neglect from successive governments in Thiruvananthapuram.
In 2011, the BJP lost the Manjeshwar seat by 5,828 votes, but Surendran has since brought down the margins, edging out the might of the Communist Party of India (Marxists) or CPI(M) and turning it into a two-way fight between the BJP and Congress ally IUML.
The party has pulled out all the stops this time to overcome previous losses and establish a firm foothold in both the district and the state.
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What’s happening in Kasaragod
In the neighbouring Kasaragod constituency, Ashwini.M.L of the BJP was trailing IUML’s Kallatra Mahin, according to early trends.
Kasaragod, a northern district bordering Karnataka’s Mangaluru, has seen increasing support for the BJP over the years.
Kasaragod was historically part of Karnataka’s South Kanara district. In the reorganisation of states in 1956, the region officially became a part of Kerala. It continues to be home to a significant number of Kannada and Tulu-speaking people. It houses several prominent Hindu temples.
The BJP has attempted to consolidate the Hindus to counter the IUML’s efforts to do the same with the large Muslim population in the tailend district.
According to the 2011 census, Kasaragod has 55.84 percent Hindus and 37.24 percent Muslims. The Christian community accounts for around 6.69 percent of the district’s population.
The Hindu community, however, has not traditionally voted as a bloc which has gone against the BJP in the past.
However, the BJP is promising to usher in big-ticket development projects on the lines of neighbouring Mangaluru and the coastal districts of Karnataka which have largely been the party’s bastion.
A significant portion of leaders from Mangaluru were stationed in Kasaragod district, reaching out to the Kannada and Tulu-speaking population and mobilising support in favour of its candidates.
The BJP hopes that Ashwini can benefit from a possible split in Muslim votes as the Left Democratic Front has fielded Shanavas Padur.
However, in Manjeshwara, the LDF has fielded local face K.R. Jayananda, which could potentially split the Hindu votes and hand an advantage to the UDF.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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