Patna: Ever since Bihar’s Pataliputra Lok Sabha seat was created in 2009, it has been recognised as a Yadav stronghold. However, despite their claims of representing the community, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Yadav and his family have consistently failed to win the seat.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav contested both the Saran and Pataliputra seats, winning the former but losing the latter to his former ally, Ranjan Prasad Yadav of the Janata Dal (United).
The seat, located in Patna district, proved elusive in the subsequent elections as well. In both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Lalu’s daughter, Misa Bharati, an RJD Rajya Sabha member, lost to BJP’s Ram Kripal Yadav, once known as Lalu’s ‘Hanuman’.
This time around, Misa will again face off against incumbent MP Ram Kripal in Pataliputra, which goes to vote on 1 June.
The entire family, including Lalu, Rabri Devi, sister Rohini Acharya, and Tejashwi Yadav, have joined in campaigning, but it remains to be seen if the fourth time will be the charm for the clan.
Here are three reasons why the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) formula has failed for Lalu and his family, causing this seat to slip through their fingers.
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‘Inaccessible’ Misa
Positioning Pataliputra as a “family seat” alongside Saran has cost the RJD dearly. In 2014, a disgruntled Ram Kripal Yadav quit the RJD after Lalu announced that his eldest daughter Misa Bharati would be contesting from Pataliputra. He joined the BJP and was subsequently fielded as their candidate, going on to win the seat twice.
“I do not know why Laluji is insisting on Misa Bharati. She is already a Rajya Sabha MP. We should have given other local Yadav leaders the ticket,” said RJD leader Kameshwar Yadav from Maner, an assembly segment of the constituency.
Even in 2024, there were two aspirants—RJD MLAs Reet Lal Yadav and Bhai Birendar—who wanted to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Pataliputra, party sources said. They are said to have fallen reluctantly in line after Lalu announced Misa Bharati’s candidacy for the third time in a row.
A decade ago, when Lalu had announced Misa’s candidacy, he’d referred to her as the “bahu” (daughter-in-law) of Patliputra since her husband Shailesh Kumar’s home is in Danapur. But this selling point has never caught on. Local residents complain that Misa only surfaces in Pataliputra when Lok Sabha polls are announced.
“At least Ram Kripal visits his constituency frequently. Misa is inaccessible,” said Pramod Kumar, a trader in Bikram, a segment of the Lok Sabha seat.
Even some RJD leaders seem to agree with this assessment.
“To be fair to Misa Bharati, she has spent her (Rajya Sabha) MP funds in her constituency. But Ram Kripalji attends every marriage function he is invited to,” said RJD leader Md Kausar Khan, who resides in Phulwari Sharif, a segment of Pataliputra with a substantial Muslim population.
Split in M-Y votes
Out of the estimated 17 lakh-strong electorate in Pataliputra, Yadavs form the biggest group, with over 4 lakh voters, while Bhumihars, Brahmins, and Muslims account for 3 lakh, 1 lakh, and 1.5 lakh respectively. The constituency also has a considerable population of Kurmi and Kushwaha voters.
However, being the dominant caste has its disadvantages. Other castes tend to polarise against the RJD, while supporting the BJP, even if it has fielded a Yadav candidate in the last two elections.
“(Pataliputra voters) polarise against the Yadavs. The polarisation is even more pronounced when Lalu and his daughter are in the picture,” said an RJD leader on condition of anonymity.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Indubhushan Singh, the son of the late Ranveer Sena founder Brahmeshwar Mukhiya contested from this seat as an independent. It was widely speculated that he was fielded by the RJD to slice the votes of Bhumihars. However, the polarisation was so sharp that he got only about 13,000 votes.
Winning this seat for Lalu and his family becomes even more difficult when their main opposition is a prominent Yadav leader. In 2009, it was Ranjan Prasad Yadav, once a very close friend of Lalu. Now, it is Ram Kripal Yadav, who, prior to joining the BJP, was one of the most well-known faces of the RJD. They are capable of slicing a section of Yadav votes away from the RJD.
A clear example of the drift away from the RJD here is the Maner assembly segment of the seat, where Yadavs make up 90 percent of the population.
Before the formation of the Pataliputra Lok Sabha seat, it used to be part of the Arrah Lok Sabha constituency. Until 2009, the RJD candidate used to lead with a margin of over 50,000 votes here, but during the last three elections under Pataliputra, this margin has dipped to less than 25,000.
“It is because of rival Yadav candidates making a dent in the RJD’s core votes,” said the RJD leader.
Demographic changes
Changing demographics have also contributed to the RJD’s underwhelming performance. Danapur, once a Yadav-dominated segment, has seen shifts in voting patterns, with the BJP leading here in the last two elections.
The urbanisation of Danapur—with malls, apartments, branded shops, and an upcoming Metro—has transformed the region over the past decade, said the RJD leader quoted earlier.
“It means more non-Yadavs are coming to reside here, and the dominance of Yadavs is becoming weaker,” he added.
A similar situation has arisen in Bihta, which falls under the Maner assembly segment. Here too, recent developments such as the establishment of an IIT and a medical college have increased the non-Yadav population, claim RJD sources.
Anti-incumbency hopes
The RJD’s hope in Patliputra lies in anti-incumbency sentiment against the sitting BJP MP, now in the running for his third term.
“It’s like getting tired of eating the same food for the last 10 years. Ram Kripalji used to get substantial Yadav votes. This time, his support among the Yadavs will sharply fall. He also used to get some Muslim votes due to his grassroots connections,” said Md Kausar Khan.
Last Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally in support of Ram Kripal Yadav in Bikram, where he accused the opposition INDIA alliance, which includes the RJD, of pandering for votes.
“I will foil the INDIA bloc’s plan to rob SCs, STs, and OBCs of their rights and divert these to Muslims. They may remain enslaved and perform ‘mujra’ to please their vote bank,” said the PM.
This comment has not been well received by the Yadavs in the region, said RJD sources.
Meanwhile, Ram Kripal Yadav’s supporters argue that he will still make significant inroads among Yadav voters. “The choice is between a man who stands with them on every occasion and someone who will disappear after the polls,” said Madhural Singh Yadav, a BJP worker in Maner, busy mobilising crowds for the PM’s rally.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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