New Delhi: If exit poll predictions hold, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is comfortably positioned to secure a third consecutive term in Assam, and may even end up ahead of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. Further, exit polls by and large predict the return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, and the All India NR Congress (AINRC) in Puducherry.
For Kerala, most exit polls predict that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) could trounce the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in a close contest.
Exit polls have in the past gone wrong with their predictions.
Voting for West Bengal and Tamil Nadu took place days after the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026—which proposed to enlarge the Lok Sabha’s strength and link a nationwide delimitation exercise to the implementation of the women’s quota—failed to pass in the Lok Sabha.
Counting of votes for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry is scheduled for 4 May.
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West Bengal
According to the ‘poll of polls’ by NDTV, TMC and BJP are locked in a dead heat in West Bengal, with the former predicted to win 146 of 294 seats and the latter 140.
This is based on predictions by six pollsters: Janmat Polls, Matrize, P-Marq, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary and Praja Poll.
Matrize predicted 125-140 seats for TMC and 146-161 seats for BJP, while Peoples Pulse predicted 177-187 seats for TMC and 95-110 seats for BJP.
Axis My India did not publish the results of its exit poll for the state.
What’s clear is that both the Congress and the Left are headed for a duck, yet again.
Of the four states and one Union Territory that went to the polls, the BJP went all out in West Bengal, the native state of Syama Prasad Mookerjee—founder of BJP’s precursor, the Jana Sangh. The campaign witnessed a high-pitched battle with the BJP placing emphasis on lack of development and joblessness in the state after 15 years under Mamata Banerjee, as also ‘ghuspaithiyas’ or ‘Bangladeshi infiltrators’.
The BJP also focused on the appeal and charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who addressed around 20 public meetings and also held three roadshows. Union Home Minister Amit Shah camped in the state for more than 20 days. The BJP, which had been making steady inroads in West Bengal over time, faced a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as its tally dropped to 12 seats from 18 in 2019.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the TMC had won 215 seats, while the BJP finished a distant second with 77 seats.
This time around, the TMC’s poll pitch was centred around Bengali ‘asmita’ (pride) as it sought to project the BJP as an ‘outsider’. The ruling party in West Bengal also made a poll issue out of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which resulted in the deletion and exclusion of nearly 91 lakh voters in the state.
Tamil Nadu
According to the ‘poll of polls’ by NDTV, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) could return to power in Tamil Nadu with 128 of 234 seats, followed by the NDA with 77 and actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) with 36.
This is based on predictions by eight pollsters: Axis My India, JVC, Kamakhya Analytics, Matrize, P-Marq, Peoples Insight, Peoples Pulse and Praja Poll.
Breaking away from the general trend of predictions, Axis My India with a sample size of 44,460 respondents, stuck its neck out to predict that the TVK (98-120 seats) could end up ahead of the DMK-led SPA (92-110 seats) and the AIADMK-led NDA (22-23 seats).
The SPA comprises of the DMK, the Congress, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the CPI, the CPI(M) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The NDA, on the other hand, comprises the AIADMK, the BJP, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
The DMK-led alliance had turned the electoral battle into an issue of Tamil identity and pride, targeting the ‘North Indian’, ‘Hindi-imposing’ BJP which is allied with the AIADMK. Vijay’s TVK put the issue of social justice and delimitation front and centre to gain traction and shore up electoral prospects in its maiden election.
While AIADMK chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) addressed more than 100 rallies, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin addressed over 80 and Vijay 14.
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Kerala
According to the ‘poll of polls’ by NDTV, the Congress-led UDF could end Kerala CM and CPI(M) strongman Pinarayi Vijayan’s decade-long run in power with 75 of the state’s 140 seats, followed by the LDF’s 60.
This is based on predictions by four pollsters: Axis My India, Peoples Insight, Peoples Pulse and Vote Vibe.
Axis My India, with a sample size of 24,419 respondents, predicted 78-90 seats for the UDF and 49-62 seats for the LDF.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the LDF secured 97 seats in the 140-member Assembly, disrupting the pattern of power exchanging hands between LDF and UDF after every five years.
Assam
According to the ‘poll of polls’ by NDTV, the BJP-led NDA could secure 92 of the 126 seats in Assam, while the Congress and its allies could win 28 seats.
This is based on predictions by seven pollsters namely Axis My India, Janmat Polls, JVC, Kamakhya Analytics, Matrize, Peoples Insight and Poll Diary.
Axis My India, with a sample size of 24,228 respondents, predicted 88-100 seats for the NDA in Assam, 24-36 seats for the Congress and its allies, and 0-3 seats for others.
The NDA in Assam comprises the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). The BJP contested 90 seats, AGP 26 and BPF 11.
The Congress in Assam contested the assembly elections as part of a pre-poll alliance comprising Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Communist Party of India (Marxist, the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC).
CM Himanta Biswa Sarma made ‘miyas’ or Bangla-speaking Muslims the main target of his attacks, while also showcasing his government’s infrastructure push. He also promised to implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) if voted to power.
The Congress focused more on social engineering with three Gogois—Gaurav Gogoi of the Congress, Akhil Gogoi of the Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the AJP—coming together to woo the dominant Ahom community. The Opposition also made corruption the central plank against the Sarma-led government. Led by Gaurav Gogoi, the Congress campaign focused on anti-incumbency, alleged illegal immigration, and the ‘misuse’ of state machinery for land eviction drives.
Puducherry
According to the ‘poll of polls’ by NDTV, the AINRC, which is part of the BJP-led NDA, could win 20 of the 30 seats in Puducherry; while the DMK-Congress combine could be reduced to 8 seats, and the TVK could win 1 seat.
This is based on predictions by four pollsters: Axis My India, Kamakhya Analytics, Peoples Pulse and Praja Poll.
Axis My India, with a sample size of 2,250 respondents, predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA, 6-8 seats for the DMK-Congress combine and 2-4 seats for the TVK, which is making its electoral debut in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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