By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of global stocks rose for the first time in four sessions on Friday as equities steadied after a sharp selloff and U.S. economic data showed an improving inflation landscape, sending Treasury yields lower.
The Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May, matching estimates of economists polled by Reuters.
In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5%, also in line with expectations, after rising 2.6% in May.
The data likely paves the way for the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, as the market widely expects.
“Everybody’s waiting to find out if the Fed is going to be confident enough to cut. If this doesn’t make the Fed confident enough, nothing will,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“The economy is slowing and if they don’t cut it could screech to a halt. They do have some time because certainly there’s still some economic momentum but that economic momentum is fading fast.”
The Fed is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting at the end of July. Markets see a less than 5% chance for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at that meeting, but are fully pricing in a September cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
On Wall Street, U.S. stocks were rallying in early trade, with small cap stocks once again leading gains as the market continues its recent rotation into undervalued names.
However, megacap names also showed signs of stabilizing, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1% after three straight days of declines that sent the index down nearly 5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 555.71 points, or 1.39%, to 40,490.78, the S&P 500 gained 49.40 points, or 0.91%, to 5,448.62, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 128.50 points, or 0.75%, to 17,310.23.
European shares were also higher after two consecutive sessions of declines, but still on track for a weekly decline.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 5.74 points, or 0.72%, to 802.52. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.74%, while Europe’s broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 14.78 points, or 0.73%.
U.S. Treasury yields were lower after the inflation data. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6 basis points to 4.196% and was poised for a second straight daily fall, putting it on pace to decline for the week.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 5.8 basis points to 4.3853% and was heading for its fourth weekly decline in the past five.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.09% at 104.24, with the euro up 0.19% at $1.0865.
The greenback also weakened against the yen after the inflation PCE data and was on track for its biggest weekly percentage drop against the Japanese currency since early May.
The yen has strengthened on expectations a cut from the Fed is on the horizon while the Bank of Japan is expected to begin tightening policy by raising rates and reducing its bond purchases in the coming months. In addition, suspected BOJ intervention earlier this month also supported the currency.
Sterling strengthened 0.09% at $1.2863. The Bank of England will also hold a policy meeting next week, although uncertainty surrounds what action the central bank may take with regard to rates.
U.S. crude lost 1.43% to $77.16 a barrel and Brent fell to $81.2 per barrel, down 1.42% on the day.
(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Sinéad Carew; editing by Mark Heinrich)
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