New Delhi: About 5-6 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia are expected to reach Indian ports in the coming days—but not through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the cargo is being routed via the kingdom’s west coast ports along the Red Sea, according to market analysts tracking tanker movements.
“Saudi crude loading from ports on the west coast has increased in recent weeks. Currently, four crude tankers bound for India, carrying approximately 6 million barrels of crude, are enroute and are expected to discharge their cargo at Indian ports in the coming week,” Nikhil Dubey, senior research analyst of refining and modelling at Kpler, a market analytics platform, told ThePrint.
The shift in export routes comes amid the prolonged conflict involving Israel-US and Iran, which has heightened risks around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil trade.
To bypass the strait, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its east-west crude pipeline, also known as the Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline or Petroline. The pipeline runs across the Saudi kingdom from Abqaiq in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast and has a capacity of about 5 million barrels per day (mbpd).
“Due to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been loading more cargoes from its west coast ports, rerouting crude through the east–west pipeline across the Saudi kingdom,” Dubey said.
He added, “Traditionally, Saudi crude exports to India were shipped from the east coast terminals, passing through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching Indian refiners.”
The current shipments may only be the beginning. While 5-6 million barrels are expected to arrive in India this week, another 9-10 million barrels of Saudi crude could reach Indian ports during the remaining days of March, Dubey said.
Saudi Arabia is not the only Gulf exporter turning to alternative routes.
The United Arab Emirates is also likely to ship crude to India through its Fujairah export hub on the Gulf of Oman. Analysts estimate that around 6 million barrels could be exported from the facility in March, with nearly 2 million barrels expected to arrive this week.
The crude is transported via the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which runs roughly 400 km from onshore oil facilities in Habshan to Fujairah. The pipeline was originally built with a capacity of about 1.5 mbpd, though current estimates place its capacity closer to 1.8 mbpd.
Russian imports on the rise
At the same time, Indian refiners appear to be stepping up purchases of Russian crude. This follows a temporary 30-day waiver by the United States allowing India to import Russian oil until 4 April 2026.
Kpler data shows that around 25-26 million barrels of Russian crude had already arrived at Indian ports by 15 March—almost matching February’s total imports of about 30 million barrels for the entire month.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation has emerged as the largest buyer so far this month, importing about 8 million barrels. It is followed by Nayara Energy with 5.1 million barrels and Reliance Industries with 4.6 million barrels.
Other major refiners—including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited—have also purchased Russian cargoes in March.
According to updated estimates from Kpler, India could import around 55-56 million barrels of Russian crude during March. The figure is higher than the 40-45 million barrels forecast just last week.
If imports cross the 56-million-barrel mark, it would be India’s highest Russian crude intake in the past nine months and about 89 per cent higher than February 2026 levels.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)