New Delhi: As the US-Israel and Iran war enters its 12th day Wednesday, and India’s crude oil imports from West Asia remain disrupted, Russian crude imports are expected to reach pre-US sanction levels, with the number of barrels likely climbing up to 40 million this month, in March, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler’s analysts.
This month’s figures are a dramatic pivot from the last two months’, when Russian imports hit a three-year low due to US sanctions and tariffs. The total imports in February were roughly 29.7 million barrels, averaging 1.06 million barrels per day (mbpd). The tally was roughly 35 million barrels in January, averaging 1.2 mbpd. In November 2025 before US sanctions came into effect, India imported over 50 million barrels of crude from Russia.
According to Kpler analysts, India has already purchased nearly 16 million barrels of Russian crude so far in March 2026, translating to roughly 1.6 million barrels per day, indicating a sharp uptick in purchases compared to the previous two months. If this trend continues, the tally is expected to reach 40 million barrels this month.
“As of now, around 15 million barrels of Russian crude have already arrived at Indian ports, with a further 25 million barrels expected to arrive over the remainder of the month. This would already place total arrivals above the volumes seen in January and February 2026,” Nikhil Dubey, senior research analyst of refining and modelling at Kpler, told ThePrint.
The surge follows a temporary US waiver after the war disrupted energy flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz—a key lifeline for global oil shipments that includes 50 percent of India’s crude imports.
In line with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 6 March announcement of a waiver, a licence issued by the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) now permits India’s transactions related to Russian crude oil and petroleum products till 4 April 2026—effectively a 30-day waiver starting 5 March—applying to cargoes in transit.
“Following the recent US waiver on certain Russian crude transactions, Indian refiners appear to be ramping up purchases of Russian crude. We are now seeing more crude oil tankers signalling discharge at Indian ports in the coming days, particularly those that were previously on the water without clear destinations,” Dubey said.
According to Kpler, a substantial number of Russian crude cargoes are currently in the waters and moving across the Indian Ocean region towards Indian ports.
US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said that India’s continued purchases of Russian oil have helped stabilise global markets during the ongoing conflict. On Wednesday, Gor wrote on X, “The United States recognises ongoing purchases of Russian oil are a part of this effort. India is one of the largest consumers and refiners of oil, and it is essential for the United States and India to work hand in hand for market stability for Americans and Indians.”
India diversifies crude imports
Kpler data shows that India’s imports from West Asian countries declined in March due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while incremental purchases from not just Russian, but also African suppliers rose.
India imported nearly 3.4 million barrels of crude from Angola in the first 10 days of March, already exceeding the entire February level of 2.9 million barrels from the African country.
Similarly, purchases from the Republic of Congo reached 1.9 million barrels, surpassing the combined imports from the country in January and February.
But there was no notable uptick in imports from the US or Venezuela this month.
Indian refiners continued to purchase Russian oil from non-sanctioned entities, with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) emerging as the largest buyer of Russian crude.
In the first 10 days of March, IOC imported a whopping 5.4 million barrels. At the second and third positions are Nayara Energy, which bought 3.6 million barrels, and Reliance Industries, which purchased 2.9 million barrels.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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