New Delhi: The US-Iran peace agreement and the subsequent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help ease global energy supplies, lower crude prices and provide relief to India by bringing down its import bill, market analysts told ThePrint.
Global oil prices fell sharply Monday after US President Donald Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Iran, raising hopes of a broader deescalation in the Middle East and the restoration of normal shipping through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country reportedly played a mediating role, announced that a breakthrough had been achieved.
The memorandum of understanding is scheduled to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday, Pakistan announced.
Markets responded swiftly to the news. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell by around 5 percent on Monday to about $83 a barrel, their lowest level since March, as fears of prolonged supply disruptions eased down.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, making any disruption a major concern for energy importing countries, including India.
At an inter-ministerial briefing on the West Asia conflict Monday, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, welcomed the development.
“If the issue is resolved then it’s good for everyone. The supplies will definitely improve,” Sharma said.
Vessels backlog, oil prices and gains for India
According to Umud Shokri, an energy expert and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University in the US, the agreement marks a significant de-escalation after months of conflict that pushed oil prices higher through supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty.
“With shipping lanes reopening and restrictions on maritime traffic being lifted, Gulf oil exports are expected to resume gradually,” Shokri told ThePrint.
He noted that a substantial backlog of tankers has been accumulated due to closure, including vessels waiting to load, unload or transiting the Strait.
Shokri expects shipping flows to improve significantly within two to four weeks, although a full return to pre-conflict operating conditions could take around a month or longer.
Nikhil Dubey, lead analyst for oil markets at Kpler, said the company is tracking approximately 130-150 million barrels of liquids loaded in the Middle East Gulf region.
#LNG carrier Disha has safely transited the Strait of Hormuz, carrying 62,370 MT LNG cargo. The vessel is expected to arrive at Dahej on June 18th.
Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways continue to coordinate with the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian missions abroad,… pic.twitter.com/GaQig9JVfK
— PIB India (@PIB_India) June 15, 2026
“Based on current loading levels, it could take roughly seven to 10 days for these volumes to exit the region. However, the timeline will ultimately depend on vessel traffic conditions and the pace at which tanker movements normalise,” Dubey told ThePrint.
He cautioned that tracking volumes remains challenging because of widespread “dark activity” and AIS (automatic identification system) manipulation in the region, which can obscure the actual location of some vessels.
As the geopolitical risk premium begins to fade, Shokri said oil prices could retreat further, potentially moving toward the $70-85 per barrel range in the near term, although volatility may remain until markets gain confidence that the agreement will hold.
For India, one of the world’s largest crude importers, experts say the deal could provide significant economic relief.
“A peace deal between the US and Iran which puts an end to military action and opens up Hormuz will immediately ease the supply shock India is facing,” said Arya Roy Bardhan, junior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
He said lower crude prices would reduce India’s import bill, improve the Reserve Bank of India’s reserve position and help contain inflation. Easing supply pressures could also strengthen domestic consumption and improve business sentiment in sectors dependent on energy inputs.
“This is a great time for a peace deal. The RBI has maintained a neutral stance and growth is strong. The momentum can be carried on,” Bardhan said.
The first signs of normalisation are already visible. At Monday’s briefing, Opesh Kumar Sharma, director in the Ministry of Shipping, said Indian LNG carrier Disha had safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz, becoming the first Indian-flagged LNG vessel to transit the conflict-hit waterway in more than three months.
Managed by a Shipping Corporation of India-led consortium, the vessel is carrying 62,370 metric tonnes of LNG cargo and has successfully exited the region amid the gradual resumption of maritime traffic.
Dubey said the reopening of Hormuz would restore a critical energy corridor through which a substantial share of India’s energy imports flow. Any easing of sanctions on Iranian energy exports could also allow Indian refiners to diversify sourcing options and strengthen procurement flexibility.
“For a country like India, which remains one of the world’s largest energy importers, the combination of enhanced supply security, greater sourcing flexibility, and a potentially softer price environment would be a meaningful positive,” he said.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
Also Read: 1st Indian vessel transits Hormuz after US-Iran peace deal announcement, to reach Gujarat on 18 June