New Delhi: India’s carbon emissions will increase by 60 percent between 2023 and 2050 owing to demand for energy while China’s output will decline by 55 percent, according to a British economist
“Under all circumstances, subject to a radical change is that carbon emissions in India are set to rise for a sustained period of time for obvious reasons–many people are still without access to electricity and there is strong economic growth–both of which fuel demand for energy,” energy provider BP’s group chief economist Spencer Dale said Tuesday, presenting the BP Energy Outlook 2025 at a seminar.
However, India’s effort in building solar and wind energy and gradual reduction in coal have resulted in improvement in energy intensity leading to rise in carbon emissions by 60 percent only, he added.
According to the BP Energy Outlook 2025, India’s carbon emissions would primarily come from rising oil demand with coal continuing to be the biggest source of energy.
India would account for 12 percent of global energy demand by 2050 from 7 percent in 2023. “Oil demand grows from 5 million barrels per day in 2023 to 9 million barrels per day in 2050 in current trajectory–10 percent of global oil consumption. Whereas, coal remains India’s largest source of energy, with its share in the energy mix staying above 40 percent in 2050,” the report adds.
It cites two future trajectories—the current trajectory where coal would remain the biggest source of energy for India and carbon emissions would increase by 60 percent, while in the ‘Below 2°’ trajectory, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 and carbon emissions will decline by almost 70 percent.
Below 2° (degree) assumes a significant tightening in climate policies alongside shifts in societal behaviour and preferences, which together support more rapid adoption of low carbon energy alongside faster gains in energy efficiency.
But, according to Rahul Tongia, senior fellow at public policy think tank Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) , a Below 2° scenario for a country like India will have implications on the GDP, which will grow at a slower rate.
Dale said as against India, China, the world’s second largest economy, is expected to witness a decline of 55 percent in carbon emissions by 2050.
“China is investing heavily in renewable energy and they are also suppliers of green technology to the rest of the world,” he said. “A few weeks back, China announced that they will reduce their carbon emissions by 2035 between 7.5 percent and 10 percent, which they are likely to achieve.”
According to Energy Outlook 2025, China accounted for nearly half of the increase in global wind and solar energy generation between 2019 and 2024. It also accounts for over half of global sales of electric vehicles.
However, Tongia argued that rather than looking at the emissions on a cumulative basis, on a per capita basis, China’s emission will be higher than that of India. “Even with a 55 percent reduction for China and a 60 percent increase for India through 2050, the per capita emissions for China are higher than they are for India,” he said.
(Edited by Tony Rai)