New Delhi: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East will shape security, political, and economic dynamics in a variety of ways, the US intelligence community’s assessment for 2026 said, adding that Israel’s tolerance for persistent threats on its border has eroded.
Israeli leaders this year are likely to continue using proactive and sometimes provocative military action in a bid to undermine and deter regional adversaries, said the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA).
It added that if the regime in Tehran survives, Israel is likely to use all available means to prevent Iran from rebuilding its capabilities devastated during the 12-Day War in June last year and the ongoing Operation Epic Fury.
“It will also seek additional ways to undermine the regime. Iran, meanwhile, will try to recover and rebuild its influence, including maintaining its ability to project power and pose a viable retaliatory threat to Israeli and U.S. interests,” the report said.
Making an alarming assessment, the report said, “Israel’s tolerance for persistent threats on its border has eroded and its policy of projecting military force beyond its borders to address emerging or potential threats has created domestic pressure on Arab leaders, challenged Gulf economic plans, and made overt Arab partnerships with Israel more challenging”.
It added that leaders across the region, and particularly in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and the West Bank, are facing substantial political and socioeconomic strains that are exacerbated by regional conflict.
Additional shocks—such as mass population movements from Gaza or neighboring countries, or new rounds of conflict—could provoke large-scale popular unrest and test government stability, the report said.
“The conflict with Iran has at least temporarily smoothed the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which emerged in part over divergent visions for Yemen, as they seek to present a united front against Iran’s aggression, avoid extensive damage, and preserve their economic transformation agendas. In the aftermath of the conflict, these tensions could reemerge, with implications for a broad range of regional issues,” it said.
Talking about the future, the report said that when the conflict with Iran concludes, the region’s key players are likely to re-examine longstanding assumptions and alliances as they determine how best to advance their interests in the changing region.
“Among the key decisions will be how the emerging balance of power between Jerusalem and Tehran affects the desirability of partnership with Israel and their levels of commitment to the U.S.-backed peace plan for Gaza, which represents additional opportunities for regional security and economic cooperation,” it said.
The Gaza peace plan
Talking about Hamas, the report said that the group is degraded but has used the ceasefire with Israel to restore some of its capabilities and control over parts of Gaza.
Hamas’s refusal to disarm, and Israel’s concerns about its ability to continue to threaten Israel are delaying progress toward fulfilling the terms of the President
Trump’s peace plan, even as stakeholders continue to develop the plan’s security and governance institutions, it said.
“We expect that HAMAS will accept some degree of disarmament but will seek the minimum level that it considers necessary to preserve the cease-fire while allowing it to remain the dominant force in Gaza.
“Israel may increase attacks against HAMAS during the coming months, depending on its progress against other adversaries, if it believes that the group is slow-rolling disarming,” the report said.
Talking more about internal dynamics in Iran, the report said that the economic, political, and societal seeds of popular discontent in Iran persist and could threaten further domestic strife akin to widescale and prolonged internal protests in 2022, 2023, and 2025-2026.
“The economy is beset by low growth, exchange rate volatility, and high inflation, exacerbating the population’s discontent. Absent sanctions relief, these trends probably will continue for the foreseeable future.
“The Iranian public is also cognizant of—and deeply frustrated by—government mismanagement and high-level corruption, factors which manifest themselves in low voter turnout and high cynicism about the likelihood of affecting political change through peaceful means,” it said.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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