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Monday, December 22, 2025
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MacroSutra

India set to grow faster than expected, but geopolitical tensions, inflation & global debt loom

Global growth has surprised on the upside, but fresh sources of risk are emerging. Initial signs of an uptick in commodity prices are already visible.

In India, households optimistic about state of economy despite rising debt, expect inflation to ease

There also seems to be preference towards physical assets. And while there's good news on headline employment numbers, there has been an increase in share of low-productive jobs.

Private sector green shoots & strong manufacturing, but elevated inflation: India’s FY24 report card

India’s capital market stood out despite global headwinds. Consumption showed uneven growth. Some high frequency indicators point to resilience in urban demand, but rural demand a concern.

How Japan’s return to positive interest rates after 17 years could impact world economies

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank & US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but signalled that they'll start cutting rates this year.

Merchandise & services exports soar, trade deficit shrinks — how India’s exports have rebounded

This comes when many global agencies have revised upwards their global growth projections for 2024, which could further boost exports. US India’s top export destination, followed by UAE.

Shortfall in central grants to poor quality of expenditure — what budgets of Bihar, Punjab & UP show

For FY25, Bihar's assumption of revenue surplus seems optimistic, while UP's seems doable. In Punjab, main concern is that targeted reduction in fiscal deficit is to come by cutting capex.

Lower on food, higher on conveyance & durables — how consumption patterns changed in past decade

Household Consumption Expenditure Survey shows urban-rural gap has narrowed, particularly at lower levels of consumption, implying effectiveness of govt policies in improving rural incomes.

How India’s GDP grew by 8.4% in Q3, propelled by strong performance in industrial & services sectors

And despite a 0.8% contraction in the agricultural sector, the overall Q3 performance has prompted an upward revision in full-year growth estimates to 7.6% in the 2nd Advance Estimates.

Subdued growth in household consumption & rural sales but companies optimistic of gradual pick-up

Data in light of Advance GDP Estimates presents mixed picture of sales of passenger vehicles, improvement in indices capturing primary, capital & intermediate goods production.

India’s resilient economy faces risks from Red Sea, higher US inflation & patchy recovery in China

The domestic economy continues to show resilience as reflected in the robust growth projections for the coming year. However, global challenges could pose headwinds...

On Camera

Violence over Osman Hadi is about Islamist Bangladesh. India-baiting is a distraction

The attack on Chhayanaut, newspaper offices, and the public lynching of a Hindu man show that Bangladesh is heading toward Islamist rule, far removed from electoral democracy.

China is taking India to WTO over subsidies, again. Here’s what it’s arguing before trade body

Dispute will now move to consultative process, which allows the two sides to come to an amicable agreement within 60 days.

Israel has ‘realised who its real friend is’, eyes defence expansion in India amid arms curbs by others

It is argued that India-Israel ties are moving from buyer–seller dynamic to one focused on joint development & manufacturing partnership, a shift 'more durable' than traditional arms sales.

Dhurandhar shows hard cinema is soft power and Pakistan is unapologetically the target

If Pathaan gave both conservatives and liberals room to hide, Dhurandhar extends no such courtesy. Aditya Dhar ripped open that tent of hypocrisy and turned the knife.