For assessing effectiveness of the pact, it would be worthwhile to see if India’s share in UK’s imports & UK’s share in India’s exports see a material pick-up over time.
The flip-flops on Trump’s tariff policy have led to a wave of dollar-selling. Stronger Asian currencies & weaker dollar will help address US’ trade imbalances with Asia.
In the current fiscal year, tax and non-tax revenue collections could take a hit. The projections will need to be recalibrated in light of the uncertain environment.
The growth projections for the US seem to be at odds with rising probability of recession put out by various agencies. Tariffs may weigh on US & China the most.
On 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries, escalating global trade tensions. On 9 April,...
Loan growth is likely to stay sluggish this yr due to weak demand & cautious approach on unsecured lending. Going forward, gap between credit growth & deposit growth is likely to shrink.
March has been a good month for equity & currency, backed by FPI inflows & weak dollar. Going forward, tariffs, Chinese markets, oil prices & corporate earnings may have a role to play.
While IMF welcomes India's shift towards debt-based fiscal anchor, it recommends improvements to the framework, besides endorsing exchange rate flexibility & other steps.
In fact, the latest reading of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s nowcast of real GDP growth suggests a contraction of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025.
The lessons of earlier American regime-change efforts should be obvious. The dismantling of Iran’s regime could lead to the breakdown of state authority and the rise of warlords.
Major energy infrastructure is in the crosshairs of the conflict, raising risks of the biggest shock since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Qatar’s largest LNG plant remains shut, fuelling supply fears.
Sinking of the ship has raised eyebrows in the Indian defence and security establishment. Lankan navy has recovered several bodies, believed to be of crew members.
The Pakistani political leadership is weak and devoid of any intellect. Its diplomacy is entirely India-China-US focused and suffers from a presumptive view of Afghanistan as a vassal.
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