Sales revenue of manufacturing firms saw weak growth in September quarter. Rural demand indicators performed better than urban. Capex must rapidly pick up in 2nd half of the fiscal.
Maharashtra has headroom to spend, but committed expenditure is expected to rise. In Jharkhand, optimistic revenue projections may limit the state govt’s ability to fulfill the promises.
For India, IMF has maintained its growth estimate at 7% for 2024-25, followed by 6.5 per cent next year. Slowdown from 8.2% growth in 2023 is attributed to exhaustion of pent-up demand.
If many market participants tend to use similar models, correlated risk & herding behaviour can amplify stability risks. Regulatory guardrails are important.
Rating analyses by global agencies, like Fitch, S&P & Moody’s, have faced flak for opacity of methods, over-reliance on perception. The space often witnesses ‘convergence’ of methodologies.
Haryana has seen good growth, keeping its deficit within limit in recent years. Inclusive development, fixing unemployment, bridging rural-urban inflation gap should be new govt’s priorities.
Israel-Iran conflict, along with outlook on inflation & growth in an uncertain global environment will be key areas of concerns for new members of the reconstituted committee.
US & Indian policy rates have seen similar trajectory. With Fed’s rate cuts, difference between interest rates in India & US may widen, leading to foreign capital inflow & stronger Rupee.
Freebies promised during polls, subsidies, swelling wage & pension bills are adding to the debt pile of states like Himachal Pradesh & Punjab. Revenue expenditure rationalisation can help.
While global corporations setting up GCCs in India continue to express confidence in availability of skilled AI engineers, the panel argued that India’s real challenge lies elsewhere.
Without a Congress revival, there can be no challenge to the BJP pan-nationally. Modi’s party is growing, and almost entirely at the cost of the Congress.
COMMENTS