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Sunday, October 12, 2025
HomeMacroSutra

MacroSutra

India’s Q2 growth likely to be weaker. Soft urban demand & credit growth, patchy manufacturing to blame

Sales revenue of manufacturing firms saw weak growth in September quarter. Rural demand indicators performed better than urban. Capex must rapidly pick up in 2nd half of the fiscal.

Maharashtra & Jharkhand’s long list of poll promises reliant on them getting their fiscal maths right

Maharashtra has headroom to spend, but committed expenditure is expected to rise. In Jharkhand, optimistic revenue projections may limit the state govt’s ability to fulfill the promises.

Recession has been averted, inflation is down. But latest IMF reports sound alarm on global debt

For India, IMF has maintained its growth estimate at 7% for 2024-25, followed by 6.5 per cent next year. Slowdown from 8.2% growth in 2023 is attributed to exhaustion of pent-up demand.

AI is revolutionising banking & finance, but over-reliance, misuse may pose financial stability risks

If many market participants tend to use similar models, correlated risk & herding behaviour can amplify stability risks. Regulatory guardrails are important.

The global sovereign ratings space needs revamp. Indian agency’s entry a welcome change

Rating analyses by global agencies, like Fitch, S&P & Moody’s, have faced flak for opacity of methods, over-reliance on perception. The space often witnesses ‘convergence’ of methodologies.

New Haryana govt has to choose between raising taxes & cutting committed spends to fund poll promises

Haryana has seen good growth, keeping its deficit within limit in recent years. Inclusive development, fixing unemployment, bridging rural-urban inflation gap should be new govt’s priorities.

With RBI’s new Monetary Policy Committee in place, a look at challenges that await its members now

Israel-Iran conflict, along with outlook on inflation & growth in an uncertain global environment will be key areas of concerns for new members of the reconstituted committee.

Low demand, costly logistics, China’s deflation hurting India’s goods exports. Services may give cushion

India’s goods exports contracted by 9.3 percent to USD 34.71 billion in August, while the import bill rose by 3.3 percent to USD 64.36...

US Fed’s rate cut is likely good news for India. It may also help temper RBI’s stance

US & Indian policy rates have seen similar trajectory. With Fed’s rate cuts, difference between interest rates in India & US may widen, leading to foreign capital inflow & stronger Rupee.

Bad economics of freebies is triggering financial crises for some states. Fiscal discipline is key

Freebies promised during polls, subsidies, swelling wage & pension bills are adding to the debt pile of states like Himachal Pradesh & Punjab. Revenue expenditure rationalisation can help.

On Camera

Women’s safety is not a curfew issue. Mamata Banerjee missed the point

For Indian women, the smallest unit of control becomes the family; the largest, the State. Both speak the same language.

Niti Aayog recommends fully decriminalising 12 offences under new I-T Act to ‘foster more trust’

Recommendations appear in Niti Aayog’s Tax Policy Working Paper Series–II. It says there is a need to shift away from fear-based enforcement to trust-based governance.

India, UK sign £350 mn deal for Martlet. What are these Lightweight Multirole Missiles

In service with the British military since 2019, it is also known as the Martlet missile. Ukrainians have also deployed these missiles against Russian troops.

CJI, IPS, IAS & Homebound: A wake-up call 75 years in the making

Education, reservations, govt jobs are meant to bring equality and dignity. That we are a long way from that is evident in the shoe thrown at the CJI and the suicide of Haryana IPS officer. The film Homebound has a lesson too.