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Glideslope is an aviation term which indicates an imaginary path or slope, created by “Navigational Aids”, which assists a pilot from the clouds to a runway, safety. If the glideslope is not followed the plane either undershoots or overshoots leading to a crash. Orban’s electoral trajectory crashed on 12th April leading to a “painful” result.
Orban is or was termed as the Godfather of hard right political Ideologue in a democratic system. Bolsonaro, Erdogan, MAGA, Meloni (to some extend) and PM Mr. Modi were all inspired by his “illiberal” democratic setup.
2008 economic crisis and chaos led the Hungarians to the promise of good governance to vote for Orban in 2010 where he won by two thirds majority. Sounds familiar! Remember the utter disgust, corruption and chaos around 2012 and 2013 of Mr. Manmohan’s government which led to Mr. Modi’s victory on promise of minimum government maximum governance, “acche din”, Gujarat model, etc.
2011 Orban introduced a new constitution and subjugated the Judiciary in 2012. Similarly, the Judicial Bill of 2014 passed in Indian parliament and in 2015 struct down by Supreme Court. However, gradual perception, rightly or wrongly, of pliable courts has grown specially after the joint “pooja” of PM and CJI with camera and reels.
The effort of Orban of changing the constitution resembles the slogan in 2024 “abki baar 400 paar”. Everyone asked why you need four hundred MPs. One of the prominent BJP political heavyweights answered “To change the constitution”. That failed spectacularly. The Delimitation Bill of 2026 is in the same direction though it has turned out to be the first legislative bill in twelve years of this government which is defeated in Lok Sabha.
2014 Orban took away media freedom leading to KESMA foundation. In India the effort has led to “Godi” media. Even NDTV was dismantled and sold. In 2021 Orban brought the anti LGBTQ law. In 2026 government brought in New Transgender law which basically extends the beliefs of hard right politics. In this decade the mainstream TV and print media has lost its traction as prime source of information. Social media platforms have boomed and both Orban and Mr. Modi are finding it difficult to censor.
Notwithstanding the changes in basic in Hungary’s constitution, in 2022 the inflation spiked leading to economic misery. Crony capitalism, corruption and economic downturn resulted in inefficient business structure where Orban’s select few ran the economy. The new leader Péter Magyar campaigned via “padyatras” as everything else was loaded against him. He physically met all the voters. We can see similar pattern in “Bharat Jodo Yatra” or Prashant Kishor’s Walk in Bihar.
If we study the above phenomena via “Gartner Hype Cycle” the Innovation Trigger occurred in 2013-14 by Gujarat model, “acche din”. Peak of Inflated Expectation occurred from 2014-2019 when BJP won absolute majority. Trough of Disillusionment occurred in 2024 rather suddenly when Mr. Mody lost his majority while contesting on “400 par” slogan. In Orban’s case it lasted from 2014 to 2022 when he won his fourth election. The prolonged Trough of Disillusionment of Hungary and sharp Trough of Disillusionment of India are different. Why?
The per capita income of Hungary is projected to be approximately $25,916 in 2025 according to IMF. The per capita income of India in 2025 is projected to be approximately $2,818 at current prices, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook. India is a poor country and even slight downturn in economy vis-à-vis incomes leads to wretchedness immediately whilst Hungary could absorb the pain for a while. Thus, the reaction was swift.
Will Mr. Modi will follow the glideslope of Orban?
Hungary is part of EU where there are extensive guardrails for democracy. Indian subcontinent has elastic human right benchmarks, doggy democratic norms and weaker corrective rudder. India has a communist dictatorship, military Junta dictatorship, unelected theology one man rule till recently, corrupt family governments etc. in our neighbourhood. So, the glideslope can vary. But Hungary is a small country, easy to control whereas India is a huge country, many parts dissenting with the centre. Poverty is another factor which leads to “what worse can happen” attitude hence harsh public reactions. The recent workers’ violent riots in Gurugram and NOIDA could be precursor to future. The alacrity shown by the government in raising wages shows that it is aware of pitfalls ahead.
Unlike Hungary where election manipulation had limits due to EU, in India SIR has created unease but is that enough for ECI to alter course?
The hyper nationalism card has expired and with Mr. Trump’s looming trade war, Pakistan’s continued mischief and Iran war, government is running out of ideas and the mismanagement of economy is bound to create distress.
We are living in “interesting times” as a Chinese proverb says.
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