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‘Road to Delhi will always go through Lucknow’ and such is the grandeur of the Uttar Pradesh election which is considered as the gateway for a dominance in Lok Sabha.
The UP election is due in February 2022 and so generally by this time, the state would have been abuzz with political murmurings but the COVID-19 pandemic has rotated the course of discussion entirely and the burning political issues, as per the ruling BJP, like Ram Temple construction, “Love-jihad”, development of highways and metro and polarisation on religion-caste lines have certainly taken a backseat.
Covid & Recent Poll Impact
Off lately, the second wave’s curve of Covid has been bending in UP but the ghastliness that occurred during March, April has shocked the citizens who are still recovering. Capital Lucknow, which represents mini UP, would have never thought in its worst nightmares that Covid patients would die gasping for oxygen and ventilator beds. Premier hospitals of UP were turning down patients and even discharging them due to oxygen deficit by pasting notices and circulars on the main gate. These catastrophic events, amplified by the media, have broken all the shackles of a set narrative for the upcoming poll and a new political grammar requires to be set up.
The branding of West Bengal elections and the recent UP Panchayat poll have contributed to be the biggest poll debacle for BJP in recent past.
UP had 3,051 zila panchayat seats of which Samajwadi Party won over 1,000 while BJP ended close to over 800 seats. BJP’s loss in Ayodhya, Varanasi, Mathura, Gorakhpur have left the party high command in a huddle. Since these panchayat elections were being projected as a ‘semi-final’ to 2022, their spill over effect can damage the party’s prospect in the upcoming race.
While the effects of these results have trickled down to the rural parts of UP, in Western part, a resurgence of Rashtriya Lok Dal has taken place. The farmers agitation against three farm laws, untimely demise of Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhary’s proactive approach in protest while rubbing shoulders with Bharatiya Kisan Union has given a new lease of life to RLD.
Although UP CM Yogi Adityanath enjoys complete backing of RSS and party leadership, a recent meeting of BJP-RSS regarding UP poll narrative has set a new grumbling in the political corridors of Lucknow and has sent a clear indication that a major reshuffle in government & organisation is on the cards. The unanswered question still remains: Will Yogi Adityanath be projected as the next CM candidate or will BJP follow the Assam route and will avoid announcing any candidature, is yet to unfold.
Caste Arithmetic & ‘others’ factor
Despite the fact that Covid has altered the political grammar of Uttar Pradesh, caste equation will still play the damage control role in the forthcoming poll due to its intrinsic nature.
Considering the blueprint of 2019 Lok Sabha election, when SP-BSP forged an unprecedented alliance to defeat BJP, a counter polarisation took place. The SP-BSP were banking on Muslims (19%), SC/Jatavs (11%) and Yadavs (9%) votes but BJP countered it by accumulating OBC/Non Yadavs (26%), General (23%) and SC/Non Jatavs (10%) vote share. BJP would be hoping that a fragmented opposition, voter’s memory amnesia and the brand of PM Modi, CM Yogi would work in their favour yet the local factor, now dominated by health issues, will play a vital role.
Meanwhile other significant outfits like the BSP’s Muslim votebank might remain null in 2022 as the West Bengal poll result has sent a lucid message to the minority.
But an alliance with a new entrant AIMIM can be a gamechanger in Muslim dominated districts. AAP won a few seats in UP Panchayat elections for starters and can have an influence on few seats in Western UP. Revival of RLD by joining farmers protest and sympathy factor outplaying in memories of Ajit Singh can also dent BJP’s fortune in Western belt.
Due to its consecutive dismal performance, Congress has become significant other in UP but can play spoilsport in vote share for ruling dispensation. The principal opposition would be Samajwadi Party which can take sheer advantage of anti-incumbency, Covid crisis, mismanagement in executive among others.
But the election machinery of BJP, booth level cadre of RSS, sheer enormous resources, status of being a social media czar, PM Narendra Modi’s tall figure, construction of Ram Temple, various State schemes, CM Yogi Adityanath’s image and government’s claims during pandemic gives a considerable edge to the BJP.
Also read: SubscriberWrites: ‘Democracy 2.0’ — A new definition of democracy is needed in changing times
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