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Today, 08 April 2026, as the world waited with bated breath following Trump’s warning of ending the Iranian civilization within hours, a 14 day ceasefire (CF) has been declared. This after his expletive ridden post which shocked all. The world breathes again, at least for now. Stock exchanges the world over,under severe duress for long, reacted positively. The TACO explanation is simplistic, though not entirely out of place. I briefly analyse the factors and layers of stratagem that have possibly led to this brief truce, which hopefully may extend to a permanent cessation of this pointless war.
Iranian Resilience. Even as Iran does not have the military might to take on the combined defence muscle of USA and Israel, it showed, despite the battering that it took,the stomach for a fight. The US assessment of the Iranian people rising up in its support to oust the repressive regime, came a cropper. They instead rose as one. The image of women and children forming a human chain around their energy installations, following US threat, was a sight to behold, even as its morality is moot, given that perhaps Iran was using them as a human shield. That’s a debate for another day. The Iranian history and culture of sacrifice, martyrdom from Karbala, Imam Hussein to this day is an important, though intangible issue, which was probably not factored in by the US.
The Strait and GCC. Iran’s ‘Trump card’ (pun intended) which they exploited to the hilt, was the Strait of Hormuz. Hithertofore an important choke point which allowed free access to merchant shipping under UNCLOS to roughly one fifth of international maritime trade, mostly energy related, Iran realised its importance as a strategic chokehold on this narrow passageway. It simply blocked it and held the world to ransom, which started to feel the pinch. Surprisingly, as it appears (though improbable), the US again does not seem to have factored this in in their strategic calculus. Then there are the GCC countries like UAE, Oman. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, who have borne the brunt of Iran’s own ‘epic fury’. From their gas fields to oil installations, to military establishments (such as they are), to desalination plants, to hotels (mostly those housing US troops), to American business interests there – everything has been attacked. They have had to pay a disproportionately heavy price for housing US military bases. Whether this arrangement proved beneficial or detrimental to their own interests…and the portents for the future…is again something that can be revisited another day.
US Concerns. The US aims and end state in this war have been ambiguous, to say the least. Regime change, ‘liberation’ of oppressed Iranians, destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability, decimation of its proxies (the famous three Hs – Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas), protection of Israel from Iran’s evil designs, eliminating the threat to itself (which US counter terrorism chief, Joe Kent, who resigned recently, ostensibly on moral grounds, said was non existent)…or, in the longer term, getting the better of China, by affecting their energy flow from Iran and the Gulf…no one knows. Israeli pressure to act could be another factor. However, after 40 days of the war, none of these aims and objectives have been fully met. While militarily the US has achieved huge success, politically and diplomatically, it doesn’t look that good. President Trump’s popularity ratings are at an all-time low. Even his MAGA base seems divided. With mid terms a few months away, Trump apprehends a complete take-over of the Congress by the Democrats. That doesn’t augur well for him. So, after all the pronouncements, threats, warnings…and bluster, if you will, he finds himself painted in a corner. He probably wants out…but not without having something to show for it. The US has spent billions of dollars on this ill conceived campaign and despite their claims, has to maintain a facade of victory – however facile. So the US finds itself between a rock and a hard place. As a soldier, it would be remiss on my part not to make a mention of the herculean, daring and prohibitively expensive operation launched by them to rescue one of their downed air warriors. That deserves accolades!
The way forward. The obvious question is – will the CF hold? Will the belligerents, particularly Israel (whose objectives are NOT co-terminous with the US) agree to each others’ difficult terms? Are we looking at the end…or the beginning of a renewed and more vitriolic form of war at the end of 14 days? Will Iran agree to unconditionally open the Hormuz Strait for now and forever? Will it charge a hefty ‘toll’ on every transiting ship? Will Iran stop its bombings on hapless Gulf nations? Will the US guarantee no future aggression? Will Iran cap its nuclear programme? In an ideal world, all this should happen. But this conflict has only underscored the point that the world and its major powers are far from ideal. Rule based order has long been thrown out the door. One can only hope that this brief respite offers the world a shot at lasting peace. Too much is at stake. We can only wait and watch, as have for the last 40 tumultuous days.
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