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17th November 2023. Republic square in Male is bustling with dignitaries for the swearing in ceremony of new Maldivian president but all eyes were set on the Indian union minister of earth sciences, mr. Kiren Rijiju who was in attendance on behalf of invitation extended to india. What made this all the more interesting is the warcry of Mr. Muizzu gave him the mandate to lead the Maldivian government . Not development , not prosperity but the “INDIA OUT” campaign in this picturesque archipelago.
And Mr Muizzu didn’t spare a single breath and “requested” Mr Rijiju to pull out all Indian personnels in respect of the mandate given to him by people of Maldives. Around 89 personnels deployed are mostly technical staff for maintenance of aerial assets and radars and who ironically have been the first responders in every event of crises , small or big in Maldives.
AS THE EVENTS UNFOLDED
Well the crisis at hand is not out of the blue for raisina hills.
The archipelago geographically lies in the Chagos laccadive ridge system in the Indian Ocean and apart from being a wonderful tourist destination is strategically placed in sea shipping route leading from gulf of aden to indian subcontinent and beyond. Maldives also stands as the dojo of china india tussle. Since Chinese imperialistic ambitions span far and wide, how could the Indian ocean be excluded from the Chinese EEZ map!! In the garb of scientific exploration and anti piracy operations, China tends to constantly lurk in the waters around Maldives. Also small nations are a special delicacy for Chinese “debt trap” appetite since they are vulnerable and easier to coerce . It becomes imperative for India to respond in kind for regional security.
The two major political parties in Maldives, the maldivian democratic Oarty founded by mr. mohammed nasheed with an overt “ India First Policy” and the other being People’s national congress {which is currently in power} founded by Mr. Yameen and others with a declared pro china inclination.
Long story short, mr. Abdulla Yameen, who spearheaded the “ India out” campaign, won the elections in 2013 defeating Mohammed nasheed. He not only opened gates of Male for Chinese investment but also asked India to remove its aerial assets from Maldives . Unlike India which hires local labour for development projects thus boosting employment , China brings in its own labour force. This, along with the corruption allegations levied against Yameen’s government caused resentment in the local populace eventually toppling PNC in the 2018 election, bringing back MDP { now led by Ibrahim Solih, a trusted ally of mr.nasheed } back to power. The Delhi-Male bonhomie was back until…
THE CHINESE COERCION
Now Chinese coercion operandi works in stages i.e ECO-MIL intimidation, narrative building via media and sabotage operations . Post 2018, China resorted to media coercion . News outlets, both print and media especially close to the NPC party started fueling narrative about the plight of muslims in India post 2014. Anti Indian government rants found way in media articles consistently and an air of insecurity was created in regard to the presence of Indian troops in Male.
A few facts about the Maldives demography and constitution. Maldives happens to have an exclusive islamic population wherein following or propagation of different faith is strictly barred by the constitution.
Well the government follows two systems policy, wherein tourism business and faith are clearly demarcated . A yet another closely guarded fact is the rise in radicalisation in Maldives with many maldivian citizens recruited by ISIS in Syria.
The effectiveness of the Chinese narrative is visible in recent statements of newly elected Maldivian MPs’ hatred spill for the indian pm. And this is where India and the Solih’s government failed.
WHAT’s NEXT FOR INDIA
Well Mr Muizzu’s smooth sail has hit rough waters in his early days of presidency thanks to his brazen acts of immaturity. Snubbing your biggest partner is never going to go well but he should not be in the equation for Indian think tanks in the long run. Government will come and go but India needs to reorient the narrative in their favour among the local populace which starts with Indian military personnel quietly leaving Male and replacing them with civil personnels. India should continue with their welfare projects notably the greater Male connectivity project and actively engage with the local maldivians.
At the same time, India should commit resources in transforming island territories of Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar islands from land of ‘liabilities’ to land of ‘opportunities’. India has hit a dip in foreign tourism very recently It just seems to be the appropriate time to up the ante in the indian ocean on all frontiers and assume the role of “Samudramitra” for one and all.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.