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The waters of the Jhelum rose in September 2014 with a strength that had not been seen in Kashmir in decades. Many neighborhoods in Srinagar were flooded, and people’s lives were disrupted on a huge scale. The Valley was also forcibly reminded that its relationship with water is both fragile and essential. The flood is still a very clear memory more than ten years later. But just remembering hasn’t made people ready.
The Jhelum is more than just a river that runs through Kashmir; it’s a warning system that people are starting to ignore.
The Illusion of Control
After the events of 2014, the main ways to stop floods were to strengthen embankments and dredge rivers. These treatments may make you feel in control, but they often hide deeper problems.
Dredging, for instance, doesn’t do much good if the siltation upstream isn’t stopped. Embankments can also help with small floods, but they can make things worse during big floods by keeping water in tighter channels and making the flow faster and more powerful.
The focus on engineering solutions without also putting money into biological restoration shows that people don’t fully understand how rivers work. Floods are not things that need to be controlled; they are natural events that need space.
New Uncertainty and Climate Change
Kashmir’s water systems are now more uncertain because of climate change. The Valley’s more predictable seasonal cycles are being replaced by heavy, short-lived rain.
At the same time, the Himalayas’ glaciers are melting faster because the weather is getting warmer. This changes how rivers flow. This leads to a dangerous convergence: more water is entering a system that has lost a lot of its natural ability to soak it up.
Because of this, the Jhelum basin no longer has the same patterns of flooding. It faces a future in which extremes are likely to become more common and deadly.
Memory without a plan
Policy responses to the 2014 floods have been inconsistent and, at times, reactive, even though the floods were very big and bad. Most people still see flood control as a technical problem instead of a social and ecological one that includes urban planning, protecting the environment, and making communities stronger.
There isn’t much coordination between the agencies in charge of different parts of water governance. Wetland protection is still not good enough, rules about urban development aren’t always followed, and encroachments keep getting worse.
The lack of readiness in the whole community is just as scary. Early warning systems, evacuation plans, and programs to raise public awareness are still not very good, especially in places that are sensitive.
In a way, the Valley is rebuilding its vulnerability while remembering the past. The difference between memory and policy is probably the biggest real threat to Kashmir right now.
Rethinking the Jhelum
If the Jhelum is to be managed sustainably, it must be viewed not as infrastructure but as an ecosystem.
This necessitates an adjustment in strategy.
- Restoring wetlands and floodplains as natural buffers, rather than seeing them as “vacant land” for development incorporating climate estimates into urban planning, rather than depending on historical facts.
- Improving early warning systems and local preparedness, particularly in vulnerable communities.
- Adopting basin-level governance, acknowledging that activities upstream immediately affect downstream risk.
Such efforts are not only environmentally beneficial but also critical to the region’s long-term security and stability.
A disaster that is slowly getting worse
The next flood in Kashmir might not be a sudden disaster. It may change slowly over time because of a combination of environmental damage, lack of policy attention, and changes in the weather.
This is what makes the Jhelum crisis so important. It’s not just about stopping another 2014; it’s also about realizing that the things that caused it haven’t changed and, in many ways, have gotten worse. The Kashmir River remembers. The question is whether policy works.
Lack of governance and fragmentation of institutions
Governance is another important part of the crisis. Different agencies are in charge of different parts of the Jhelum basin, and each has its own rules, priorities, and limits. This fragmentation often leads to tasks that are done twice, slow responses, and policies that are not consistent.
For instance, urban planning decisions may not take into account hydrological risks in a useful way. Environmental rules meant to protect wetlands often fail because they aren’t enforced well or because of other economic interests. What we need is a clear, integrated framework that brings all of these different areas of river basin management together under one goal. Even programs that are meant to help can fail if they don’t work together.
Community at the Heart of Resilience
Policy and infrastructure are important, but communities should not be overlooked. The floods of 2014 showed how weak and strong the people who lived there were. In many cases, community networks, not formal systems, were the first to help and give support.
But you shouldn’t take this strength for granted. It is very important to get the community involved in disaster preparedness. This means making it easier for people to get timely information, doing regular drills, and making sure that planning processes don’t leave out people who are at risk.
Resilience is more than just being able to deal with disasters; it’s also about getting ready for them and lessening their effects before they happen.
Looking ahead
The future of Kashmir and Jhelum are closely linked. As climate change gets worse and the Valley grows, the choices we make now will determine whether it becomes more resilient or more vulnerable. So, the job isn’t just about technology; it’s also about politics, the environment, and society. It requires a willingness to rethink how things are done now and put long-term sustainability ahead of short-term gains.
The river has already sent out a warning. The question today is whether people will listen to that warning or only realize it after the next crisis has happened.
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About the author:
Anusreeta Dutta is a columnist and climate researcher with experience in political
analysis, ESG research, and energy policy.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.