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In July 2021, a cabinet reshuffle has given a room for the most of the Indian states in the central ministry. Will it, however, address the political and economic disparities that exist across Indian states?
The outcomes of the recent state assembly elections (Assam, Puducherry Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal) have prompted us to reconsider India’s current state of imbalance. Out of the 30 states and union territories with legislative assemblies (excluding Jammu and Kashmir, which has yet to hold an election), 19 are governed by the BJP and its allies, and 11 are led by non-BJP parties.
Figure 1: State and Union Territories with Legislative Assemblies in 2021
Non-BJP parties are ruling in the southern states, with the exception of Karnataka, following the state assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. The BJP and its allies, on the other hand, govern the majority of northern states. In terms of state assembly, the geographical mapping does imply a North-South division.
When the proportion of Members of Parliament who belong to the party or alliance at center in the total number of Members of Parliament in a given state is calculated (Number of Member of Parliaments from given state belong to party or alliance at centerTotal Number of Member of Parliaments in given state), this division becomes even more apparent. During the UPA era, the southern states had a significant number of MPs who were members of the ruling party or coalition at the centre. Following the 2014 Loksabha election, this share number of Members of Parliament in total number of Members of Parliament in given state has decreased. When state assemblies and member-of-parliament shares are combined together, southern states lose out in India’s central politics and negotiating leverage. This illustrates the Union of India’s political imbalance.
Aside from the political imbalance, India is also experiencing a regional income imbalance. In 2018-19, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh’s per capita net state domestic product was 29668 Rs and 44421 Rs, respectively, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu’s was 148078 Rs and 142941 Rs. It’s approximately tripled in value.
Figure 2: Income and Political Division
(Data source: Reserve Bank of India: Handbook of statistics on Indian States, Election Commission of India)
The north-south divide is underlined by the spatial mapping of economic and political power. Political power is concentrated in the north, whereas income is concentrated in the south. The gap is becoming wider. This compels us to reconsider Economic Geography, a concept popularised by the World Development Report 2009. Density, distance, and division are the three fundamental elements of economic geography. This includes the human (human development elements including density, labour productivity), physical (elements related to market development, access), and political aspects of economic development. The population (density) is concentrated in northern India on the other hand south India has traditionally benefited from the efficiency of reaching the market due to its proximity to the coast and sea routes. Further south, states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu have established good public transportation systems, reducing economic distances. The political divide between the North and the South, on the other hand, is widening. The imbalances in these three aspects can impose the challenges for policymakers.
Recent cabinet reshuffle has given a room for the most of the Indian states in the central ministry change. Uttar Pradesh got eight ministers, while Gujarat got six. Maharashtra (4), West Bengal (4), Bihar (3), Karnataka (3), Madhya Pradesh (2), Odisha (2), Assam (1), Himachal Pradesh (1), Uttarakhand (1), New Delhi (1), Rajasthan (1), Tamil Nadu (1), Jharkhand (1), Telengana (1), Tripura (1), Arunachal Pradesh (1), Arunachal Pradesh (1), and Manipur (1) all have representation in the Central Ministry. Will this, however, balance the current political and income regional disparity? This will be the most crucial question in Indian quasi federalism in the near future.
– Vivek Sharadadevi Jadhav
Where are we, as a Nation, headed?
There never was, is or will be Utopia; we can only work towards one. I write this not singing paeans to the Chinese system nor for liberal democracy. I am just painting some scenes as we see it.
I am going back, briefly, to the evolution of Homo Sapiens to understand polity and society. From bands of nomads with and without pack leaders the human civilization has seen various forms of Governments – Chieftains, Kings, Emperors, Fascists, Communists, Autocrats and finally democracy. Democracy can be safely termed as the most successful of the systems. Even with the localized conflicts and terrorism in the world today, post WWII era has been the least damaging of the systems. I am not going into details. You can read up on all this on the net, if interested.
Yet, liberal democracy holds different meanings for the various sections of the electorate. The economist sees in it free trade and globalization. A politician will see rule of law, free and fair elections, minority rights and such. The common man will see same-sex marriage, individual rights, wide choices etc. It is a complex system to say the least, especially in a divergent population, such as in India. Then there are always two sides to what a Nation does or does not do – National and International.
In this circumstance how pervasive and successful can liberal democracies be?
According to Yuval Noah Harari, the real problem with democracy, good or bad, is that “elections are all about what we feel and not about what we think”. The politicians and the media by their utterances channelize our feelings. This reliance on feelings may be the undoing of liberal democracy in India and all over the world, which has even now degenerated into a “puppet show controlled by emotional strings”. The Governments, media and all other constitutional bodies are scared to tell the people to behave, lest the vote base is eroded. The results are all too evident in these Pandemic times!!!! Feelings are not a cosmic force and they surely do not reflect any free spirit. I wonder where democracy is without thoughts even though there is a danger lurking even there. Most of us, including a large section of the media, think they are thinking while in reality the “thinking” only results in rearranging prejudices. This is also evidenced in the opiniated writings of reporters, columnists and many experts.
China has found a mix of various systems to emerge strong economically and militarily. It follows a variation (single party in charge) of an autocratic system internally and liberal democracy internationally. In the medieval times in China and Mongolia regions, the invaders first laid claims to small portions of isolated villages before launching large scale offensives. In today’s world the battlefield is actually the economic spectrum rather than geographical extent. The military posture such as posed by China, along the LAC and other parts of the world, is only a smoke screen. It is quietly biting into the economic pie of the world. China knows what it is doing. Its strength is that it can just go ahead and do what it wants. We may not know the exact internal situation in China. Yet, the only way China can now be contained is if its people are so unhappy that they revolt and the Chinese nation implodes. That may not be coming anytime soon as the political structure there reduces the possibility of any strong concerted uprising by Chinese citizens.
Democratic system definitely offers more freedom than Governments such as in China. The problem is that we as a Nation do not consider that increasing freedom also brings with it increased responsibilities. Looking for loop holes in the system for gains is not something that can be considered responsible. Neither is wearing a helmet only when confronted with the Traffic police. Citizens of democracies need to be more self disciplined than in any other system of governance.
Even in a democracy in many matters the Nation needs to speak in one voice. This cannot happen when every political outfit speaks at cross purposes with a parochial agenda on anything and everything. The media too needs to be consistent and true in its reporting. A Nation cannot be run by the judiciary, just because it is a democracy and anything and everything can be challenged in the courts.
Tailpiece: As Yuval Noah Harari says, “Most of the problems we face today in liberal democracies are there because the people who work for a living are now outnumbered by those who vote for a living”. In this sense, how is China different from a democracy – except that in a democracy the ruling parties change periodically.
– Col KL Viswanathan (Retd)
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