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India and China have six times been in a war like situation. Out of this twice they actually fought wars, first in 1962 when India faced a humiliating defeat and lost 45000 square kilometers of territory in Ladakh to China. In the second war in 1967 India defeated China. The other three were near wars, this was in 1987 (Arunachal Pradesh), 2017 (Doklam) and 2020.
What happened in 2020 is still a protracted military standoff in Ladakh. Actually, since the start of Doklam Standoff in 2017, China did bring in a huge quantity of its troops inside Tibet. China has been preparing for war inside Tibet (occupied by China in the 1950s) since 2017. It’s a different issue that the Indian side realized the enormity of the problem in 2020 only after China did multipronged deep intrusions inside Ladakh.
According to India’s most well regarded and credible newspaper The Hindu Chinese troops (PLA) are sitting in Ladakh on 1000 square kilometers. So, in the language of International Law, China is in belligerent occupation of Indian territory. As per International Law, belligerent occupation means to govern a relation of the country who is an occupant, and on other hand, whole or in part for occupied part of any country. Actually, between India and China in the Himalayas the border between both the countries is not demarcated. So, both countries have varying perceptions of where this border really is.
To keep the peace intact, both the governments in 1993 signed a peace treaty (later more treaties). According to it both countries would patrol till their claim points (as what each side felt is their claimed areas), so actually till March 2020 both sides were patrolling their respective claimed areas. So, now Indian troops are no longer able to exercise their patrolling rights over the areas it claimed in Ladakh from April 2020. A colossal amount of PLA troops are blocking the Indian troops. As a result to ensure the PLA is not able to do more land grabs the Indian Army too mobilized since May 2020 in a big way in order to attain a mirror deployment.
Since then, the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force have been day and night preparing for a war which the PLA might decide to unleash. Xi Jinping is quite similar to Vladimir Putin (giving analogy with respect to Ukraine). Xi sees Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as historic, cultural and strategically significant; something that Putin used to justify (NATO expanding east) his own invasion of Ukraine. This is dangerous.
In the case of Xi, he has not said anything explicitly but only implicitly which means the same as he has said on numerous occasions that China will reclaim Tibet as part of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Tibet for Xi means Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. The Russians kept lecturing the West on NATO expanding east, alike that the Chinese have repeatedly said to India that India is getting too close to the United States. A US intelligence report of March 2024 has predicted a war between India and China.
The Chinese are not at all interested in settling their territorial dispute with India through negotiations despite the many efforts (including maps) made by the Indian side since the 1990s. For India to ensure no war, it has to work on deterrence by building up large arsenal of conventional tipped missiles with dual use AGNI missiles also; these ballistic missiles are the backbone of Indian nuclear deterrence but one has to understand that nuclear weapons are not for war fighting, they are just political instruments of coercion.
There are many instances after 1945, as to why no country has used a nuclear weapon despite accepting defeat in a conventional war, latest example is of Putin, the war with Ukraine is in its third year still he has not dared to press the nuclear button as everyone knows that after the Russian bomb detonates, the radiation will not just travel to Europe but as the wind in Ukraine blows from west to east, it will definitely kill many Russians inside Russia too due to radiology.
Indian Army must incorporate nuclear tipped missiles AGNI-I of range 700 kms, AGNI-II of range 2000 kms, AGNI-III of range 3000 kms, AGNI-IV of range 4000 kms and AGNI-V of range 5000 kms as conventional tipped too; missiles are comprehensively indigenous, with political initiative, mass production is needed quickly. Such conventional missiles will counter PLA’s cognitive confrontation. These missiles should be constructed in thousands and deployed, as PLA Rocket Force will use conventional tipped missiles to start its war and win very quickly territories. China wants to dominate Asia (competing with the USA) so it cannot do that without fighting a war with India.
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